Nadim Koteich argues that the Army could serve as useful fig leaf for Hezbollah in the future:
In contrast with the war it initiated in 2006, today there can be no better excuse for Hezbollah to engage in a war with Israel than joining one in support of the Lebanese army and other state institutions. Such a strategy would save Hezbollah any public disapproval and would make it hard for political parties to blame Hezbollah for the consequences.
Sounds diabolical. But for this to be successful, there should be a sort of complicity from the Army:
This would require, however, an under-the-table deal with factions of the army loyal to Hezbollah, a matter on which many observers have little information, yet enormous suspicions.
This would be very serious. Israel is already calling this the “Hezbollisation of the Lebanese Army” but I don’t think this is an accurate characterization. It’s true that Hezbollah has many supporters in the rank and file of the armed forces, but what matters is the clarity of strategy within the top command. All parties should strive to make the army’s strategy more in line with the Lebanese government than with Hezbollah’s sponsors.
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ok, i’m going to put on my tinfoil hat for a minute — but people should feel extremely free to shoot me down if this is demonstrably off-base (i’ve been too busy to follow the latest developments as closely as i’d have liked).
if this week’s events were in fact pre-planned, is it possible that the 3adeisseh incident was more about protecting hezbollah’s weapons than any future war with israel? HA & co seemed quite swift to cast the incident within something that looks a lot like a national defense strategy — the army protects the borders, we protect the interior. this incident gave HA a chance to show that hey, we’re not replacing or undermining the LAF, we’re complementing them! they do their thing, we do ours, but we’re all necessary to keep lebanon safe!
if they could get the country behind that formula ahead of the national dialogue this month (ok, highly unlikely, but in theory), it could also help insulate them from fall out over the indictments in the fall.