I linked recently to two articles, one by Hanin Ghaddar and one by Paul Salem, in which both argue that Hezbollah is in a tenuous situation. That view is becoming more and more mainstream in pro-March14 circles.

Nicholas Noe of Foreign Policy magazine, however, begs to differ.

Those who have been peddling the view that Hezbollah is in trouble, according to Noe, are “partisans and/or polemicists and have a stake in shaping the course of the fight.” Instead he thinks Hezbollah is as strong as ever:

This sort of counter factualism ignores the enduring common interests that Resistance Axis members share and will likely continue to share in the coming period as the momentum for a confrontation rather than a settlement apparently builds. Nor is it likely that Hizbullah particularly fears the outbreak of some scenario of “Sunni violence” following an indictment of its members. As in May 2008, the Sunnis of Lebanon have no supply lines, little military training and increasingly less political capital in the country as a whole 

Then why is Hezbollah defensive and angry? Noe proposes:

An STL indictment against Hizbullah would, perhaps decisively, push the de-legitimization of Hizbullah forward, especially in Europe where Hizbullah raises money freely (it is not on the EU terror list) and where many of Hizbullah’s Christian allies look for support and succor 

Noe makes some good arguments, but in my opinion the jury is still out on the matter.

It’s not the occupation. It’s not the strangling siege and definitely not the daily humiliation, according Sol Stern. It’s the Palestinian “Obsession With The Nakba“:

The Nakba is the heart of the Palestinians’ backward-looking national narrative, which depicts the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 as the original sin that dispossessed the land’s native people. Every year, on the anniversary of Israel’s independence, more and more Palestinians (including Arab citizens of Israel) commemorate the Nakba with pageants that express longing for a lost paradise. Every year, the legend grows of the crimes committed against the Palestinians in 1948, crimes now routinely equated with the Holocaust

And the logical conclusion for fools like him is that the Palestinian refugees like those in Lebanon have no business returning to their homeland.

Many paragraphs later, James Kirchick concludes:

The authoritarian regimes that rule over so many of the world’s Muslims need something to distract attention away from their corruption, lavish lifestyles, and utter inability at providing a hopeful future for their citizens. Directing the collective awareness of not just Arab and Muslim populations but also the elite class of Western policymakers to the Palestinian question has proven to be an amazingly useful propaganda tool.

But I don’t get his argument. Is he saying that peace in the Middle East is not what it’s made up to be? But why doesn’t he humor us? Arabs are hotheads, but they’re not stupid. Once the Palestinians and Israelis (and Syrians and Egyptians and Jordanians and Lebanese) are living in peace side by side, leaders won’t be able to use Israel as an excuse to trample over their people’s right.

Brit In Beirut pours his heart out

Ah … Lebanon. As much as I love you, your schizophrenic nature makes living here akin to dating Glen Close. Sure, was probably good in the sack, but then she was also partial to boiling your family pet. [..] One minute we’re looking forward to summer, the World Cup, England’s premature exit, drinks on the beach and leaving the office at 4.00. … The next minute the annual, “It’s summer, therefore there must be a war” theories start emerging

Fatima Issawi, spokeswoman for the tribunal responds to Hezbollah’s attacks.

Experience of other international tribunals has shown that the results of the work of such institutions speak for themselves and contradict the unsubstantiated allegations of hostile interference [..] We are convinced that this will also happen in the case of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). 

What she’s saying is: “Don’t jump the gun. Wait and see”. The Idea is that the tribunal will make its case using hard evidence and well researched proofs.

In my opinion, this is not enough. Hezbollah’s campaign is hitting at the heart of the Tribunal’s credibility. It’s a political campaign which aims to create doubt in people’s minds of the STL’s trustworthiness. No matter how persuasive facts are, if you don’t trust the person telling those facts, you won’t be convinced.