Hezbollah’s Predicament: To Join or Not to Join?
Whether or not to add a Lebanese front to the Gaza war is a very difficult decision for Hezbollah.
So far, Mr. Nassrallah is only using his “soft power”. Relying on his prestige and influence among Arab masses, he urged Egyptians to break open the walls of Rafah with their “bare chests”. Whether his prime-time TV address makes a difference is not clear yet, but Hezbollah has a big question in its mind at this moment: Should it join the war and open another front?
While some might find the question easy to answer, Hezbollah strategists and game theorists have their work cut out for them; not joining the war is risky because it would demonstrate that the 2006 war did put an end to Hezbollah’s ability to poke Israel when it wants to relieve Hamas. That would undermine Hezbollah’s entire narrative of victory against Israel in 2006 and show weakness.
At the same time, joining the war isn’t easy. Lebanon is not yet ready for a re-run of July 2006, and Mr. Nassrallah knows that the Israelis would be even more deadly and ruthless this time around. The Lebanese President and the minister of Defense pointedly made the point from the southern border that while we should all vocally protest the Israeli aggression on Gaza, Lebanon is no launching pad for Missiles.
There are other reasons why Hezbollah should think twice before joining Hamas in its fight. The cheap price of oil has put a financial strain on Hezbollah’s main backer Iran. This means that reimbursing people whose houses were destroyed will not be easy this time, let alone replenishing their stocks of expensive missiles.
Also, by joining the war Hezbollah risks postponing Lebanese parliamentary elections scheduled for early 2009. As things stand, Hezbollah and its allies have a decent shot at gaining a majority in the parliament and rolling back last last 3 years of anti-Syrian dominance. Politically, Hezbollah is right where it wants to be at this moment and the last thing it needs is a war that might compromise its internal standing.
So what is a Party of God to do?
Do what Sayyed Hassan is doing: Use strong rhetoric and secretly hope that international and Arab pressure will end the war as soon as possible. If all else fails, provoke the Israelis into doing something stupid in Lebanon and pounce on the opportunity. After all, as they all say: “They started this!”
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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I think Nassrallah (or whomever wrote his speech yesterday) did a very fine job of communication. I got from that speech that Hezbollah will not be committing any acts of aggression but will be more than willing to defend Lebanon should Israel attack. By doing so he kept himself and his party in the strong threatening zone while also silently communicating that the party knows that they have no support nationaly to start another front. In 2006 Gaza was also being wiped out when our summer war began and back then there was a ground offensive going on, whereas now it’s still air operations. So basically Nasrllah “fash khilli2″ his supporters by saying that he would be more than willing to attack while keeping his rivals at ease of mind that he would only do that when Israel initiaite. Perfect PR in my opinion.
Israel blames Hamas rocket attacks. Hamas blames Israel’s occupation. Let’s let it all hang out and give some credit to Iran also. With none of their own blood at risk they use Hezbullah and Hamas to keep the pot boiling to shift/diminish the risk of foreign invasions aimed at their own nuclear programs. As much as Nasrallah would love to act on his own he must be getting some local political advice about physical risks. But he is certainly free to make a lot of noise, though.
I think that both Israel and HA are waiting for the other to make the first move! Israel will wait to finish its agression in Gaza before it will turn to Lebanon. At that time, Israel will create the excuse to hit HA.
HA is not ready to fight Israel and I doubt that will ever fight Israel. Do you recall what Nasrallah said after the Summer 2006 war: “If I knew…”
I don’t agree with you that March 8 may win the election in 2009. Actually my prediction is that March 14 may win one or two more seats but both M8 and M14 will lose some seats to independents.
Internally, HA does not have the support of Lebanese: Some Shiite had enough of war, Sunni did not forget the invasion of Beirut by HA and the treatment they got from HA and its allies, and Druze and Christians will not open its houses and churches to Shiite anymore!
HA is now a strong militia (it is the only openly armed one) which will use its power to intimidate Lebanese and the elected government. Also, will continue to be the arm of Iran to be ready to retaliate in case Israel decided to bomb Iran.
What else did Hamas so-called ‘leaders’ expect from continually firing those cracker rockets?
As for Nasarallah the saying goes a dog that barks never bites.. Nasrallah is simply barking cause that’s all he’s capable off. What I find pathetic is his call that Hamas will achieve another ‘divine victory’… what a lunatic.
My sympathy goes out to the poor civilians who always pay the fatal price for the delusions and arrogance of the likes of Nasrallah and Haniyah.
Nasrallah is not in a position to open a front on Israel and take the full brunt of Israel’s wrath. The party and Lebanon itself is still reeling from the devastation of 2006. The next best thing that he can do, is offer his “moral” support…basically a combination of silly and rehashed rhetoric that sounds good to the “arab” ear but achieves nothing in essence.
The question should be: Would Iran engage the Lebanese front or not in a war against Israel?
HA does not have the power to decide on such an issue. HA is an Elite quadrant of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). Iran or the Head of IRGC will decide if they will start the Lebanese front or not?
Frankly, I think Iran will allow HA to start the war. The benefits of such a war will be:
-use the anti-aircraft missiles that HA now has.
-Delay the election
-International Tribunal will be delayed because of the availability of some major stars for the court.
-HA will spread their muscles again.
The best part about all the comments is that people are discussing if HA or Nasrollah will open a front, while no body doubt that Eygpt, Jordan and the rest of the arab world will not shoot a bullet.
That is an honor that there are men in our nation who everyone waits for their reaction. HA is the only group that Israel calculates and worry of their reaction.
To Habeen…
Why should these Arab countries open any fronts? They don’t have any quarrel with Israel. I don’t see you criticizing Syria for not opening any fronts, or you don’t dare criticize Syria, do you?!
You speak of honor… what’s so honorable about being blinded by outdated and primitive religious rhetoric? Is it honorable to sacrifice the lives of civilians when your leaders err with their misguided decisions and hide in their rat holes while the rest of the population receives the wrath of bombs… ignorance is bliss.
Habeen,
Where are Syria and Iran?
Where are the half-men?
Where are Shibah 1, 2, 3…?
They are just talk!!!
Ha ha ha.. after what awaits Hamas
in the coming days, we will have quiet also
on the south border.
Don’t forget: Israeli-Lebanese border was
never as quiet as it is, since Tamuz 2006.
Some 2 1/2 years now.
.
wow… talking about that speech… you should just watch the next clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=553vSPJNRzg
Nice:
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1052871.html
Couldn’t agree with you more mate. Hezbollah is exactly where they need to be right now, and they didn’t have to lift a finger.
Besides, politically and militarily, Hezbollah and Hamas are on two entirely different levels. Though they may talk about brotherhood, Hezbollah is a well oiled machine with practically its own state, and it scares the living daylights out of most of the ‘civilized’ world. Hamas are Che-ist rebels with firecrackers, making their last stand at the Alamo.
Hezbollah is not likely to stick its neck out to jeopardize itself when they know how far ahead of Hamas they are in their security and ability.
Nassarallah’s hands are tied by opportunists in Lebanon. If that wasn’t the case, Hezballlah would definitely come to the aid of Palestinians. To its disadvantage, in thsi instance, Hezballah is not a bare-bone rebel group, then it would have aided the Palestinians without second-guessing. It is also too easy to blame the Iranians when this war with Israel is going on for over 50 years with a long history of Arabs backstabbing each other, at state and group levels. Egypt and Saudi Arabia has understand that Israel, like Russia, is neither satisfied with full peace nor with full-scale war–in case of Russia it is unsecure about its security if it exapands or contracts territorially. All Israel wants is to keep humiliating the Arab and Islamic world and keep it underdeveloped, politically and economically. This way Israel can justify its military build up, research and development of lethal weapons. pork-eating Israeli ruling class is hardly fighting to preserve their religious identity, rather they are here like a htorn in the eye of the Arab world.
Borderman, you speak like a true Persian…
Who’s in the Arab world is still calling for destroying Israel? Only Iran’s terrorist proxies, Hezbolla and Hamas are marching to Iran’s calling of wiping Israel off the map. Nasaralha himself declared that he’s nothing but a meager solider in the army of welayat el-faqih. I don’t think you need me to translate that for you. Hezbolla and Hamas simply can’t survive as viable entities without Iran’s funding.
Though this time Israel seems to have learned the lessons of the 2006 war and Hamas is destined to suffer a major blow. I for one, hoping the terrorist group Hezbolla would be next. And yes Hezbolla is a terrorist group, just ask Beirut residents what they witnessed of Hezbolla in May of last year.
MLK, You are obsession with Iran is blinding you and forces you to ignore and oversimplify Arab complexities at state level for over 50 years. Iran is no angel but neither is the Saudis and the Egyptians and the Syrians or the Lebanese. Because of the Hezballah factor you hate any resistance group. You see the world through the destruction of Hezballah. You are not thinking about solution or strategies which can lead to permanent peace, but rather at sectarian and tribal levels, which happens to be prevalent in Lebanon. Without the influence of Hezballah, Harriri, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France and the US, extremists, how do you see the Lebanese getting along between the Sunnis, Shiites, Christians and even intra-sects? All I can say is that Middle East has ignorance problem and the supposedly “political class” knows what is best for them, which far far from the truth.
Borderman, I seem to have struck a nerve with you, good. Though your reply is very amature with gibberish points all over the map.
Let me try and simplify it to you further. Stating the facts about Iran’s imperial ambitions in the ME is no obsession, but the reality of the situation.
Go back and read your original reply and see who’s obsessed with whom. Just like the backward dark-aged and radical thugs, which you call resistance, you’re blinded by your hatered for Israel and the Jews. A boring and worn out conspiracy theorist.
Maybe if you expanded your mind’s horizon by reading and listening to alternative views you’ll come to realize the cool-aid Nasralaha and his ilk been feeding you is detrimental to your mental and physical health.
You speak of my lack of strategies of peace as if you proposed any, you simply stated bigoted comments and pointing blames. You want strategies, how about the King Abaduallh peace proposal presented in Beirut in 2002. Though clearly that’s not adequate enough for your kind since you won’t settle for anything but the total annihaltion of Israel.
Wake up from your blind ignorance and acknowledge the reality that the moment you comprehend Israel’s right to exist we will have a permanent peace in the ME.
MLK, you can pat yourself on the back, but what I wrote is hardly all over the map. Maybe, your map is reduced to the grudges you have against Hezballah. It is quite horrible that you accuse me being bigoted against and hateful of Jews, when Israel slaughters innocent Palestinians for the simple reason of having the legacy of resistance forced upon them with the creation of Israel by and out of “white” guilt. Christian whites never paid for their crimes, but committed further crime by erecting the state of Israel on the soil of Palestine, which wasn’t ready, politically or socially, for such accommodation. Again, your narrow view of the world events and based on your hate for Hezballah reduces you to understand the situation with great partiality. Just to remind you, Hamas won the election, which was the will of the Palestinian people. However, Hamas was expected to drop policy of abolishing Israel. Obviously, Hamas would not have been able, politically, to announce such policy change. And it did not mean the end of the world. Israel was till capable to stand up to Hamas. What I am saying that it was a delicate moment and everyone needed time to fine tune the situation for eventual coexistence. But the fat King of Saudi Arabia and Egypt’s corrupt Mubarak just followed Israel’s policy of isolating and marginalizing Hamas led government. If Arab leaders were wise enough, they should have take the initiative to persuade Hamas to chagne their policy with diplomacy and economic aid. Instead, the corrupt, idiot Arab leaders forced Hamas to look to Iran without thinking about the consequences. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s parallel government run by extremism complicates the situation even more. While can take its share of the blame, but so does Israel, Saudi Arabia and everyone else. They are complicit in this conflict. It is cultural, social problem. It is ignorance and rash. If you think Iran can dominate the middle east, think again. Iran is a developing country with a bad economy. They can not spending forever. They will bankrupt themselves pretty soon, just like Russia by over extending themselves. Once they get their bomb, they no longer want or need the complexities of middle east. They have great potential to invest in threir own country only of Israel and US does not stick its nose in every aspect and part of middle east.
I am an Iranian Israeli (dual passport) who would also like to ask, why would any Arab government like to get involved with the Iranian government, even the Iranian people detest their government. The bad economy is due to the fact that the money is spent on weapons for destroying Israel instead of improving the lives of the Iranian PEOPLE. Do you know how many Iranians are pissed off with thier Mullahs?
Beirut Spring, if you think that the Israeli people like to engage in wars, you better get yourself educated.
Israel will create the excuse to hit? GK you have no idea what you’re talking about. Ignorance as yours will cause more tragedy.
why don’t you all see Israel with your own eyes through REAL Israeli people and not the garbage you pick up in the media and analyze here in your blog, and use your own mind the media has messed up your mind. my cousin in israel worked with arabs in gaza for 25 years and we were like a family.
……MY COUSINE IN DOWN TOWN TEL AVIV supported 200 families in GAZA, they used to sew jeans for our boutique and we worked together beautifully until the terrororists (hamas)took power and claimed to destroy israel. the Palestinians were wonderful with us, but hamas didnt want that.
Hamas will play dirty tricks and kill and sacrifice their own children just to make israel look like a monster. israel was forced to close the gate between israel and gaza, now we can’t support them. a lot of arabs in GAZA hate the hamas too, don’t you realize? Israelis were working fine with the arabs until Hamas screwed everything up.
this is not a very cool blog, you don’t stand up to your name, Beirut Spring, I expected more awareness. I can’t believe we are next door and how far out you can be. Pity!!!!!
Hezbollah does have a predicament in whether or not to fully commit to the Palestinian cause. However, the 2006 war wreaked havoc on Lebanese infrastructure and in turn (I would think) would cause a severe downturn in the economy (see my blog Freetelligence for a further discussion). Hezbollah does have political and military goals, but if they are found to be the reason for Lebanese citizens living in poverty then citizens will soon turn away from Hezbollah