Can Lebanon Handle Those Fancy Planes?
The average Lebanese are cheering the Russian deal. But a closer look should give them pause for thought.
It was by all means a feat by our Minister of defense Mr. Elias El Murr. As he toasted his celebratory vodka with his Russian counterpart, he must have predicted how the Lebanese, people and media, would be overjoyed by the promised spectacle of modern fighter jets wearing a cedar tree.
Politicians are rushing to embrace the story. To March 14, it’s “proof to Syria that Lebanon is an independent and sovereign country” as the Hariri-owned Al-Mustaqbal newspaper put it. To the Hezbollah and Arabist types, it’s an act of liberation from an Israeli-imposed ban on weapon sales to this country.
But regardless of which point of view you come from, it will not be hard for you to notice –after the party is over and the corks are swept away– that the Mig-29s could be a meal that the Lebanese will find hard to digest.
Not withstanding the political headache of of assigning pilots and staff to the liking of all sides, the economics of such a deal are ominous; as the Lebanese daily Assafir puts it:
?? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ???????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ???????? ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ??? ???»??? ??«. ???? ?? ????? ????? ??? ??? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ???? ????? ?? ????????. ??? ?? ??? ????? ???? ??? ????? ???????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?? ???????? ????? ????????? ??????? ????? ????????? ?????? ??????? ???.
Translation: Are we capable of setting up an entire (military) system that begins with sending 30 Lebanese army officers -at least- to train as pilots for the Mig-29s, in addition to one hundred soldiers tasked with learning how to fully maintain such fighter jets? Not to mention the necessity of refurbishing and maintaining Lebanese airbases and hangars that would accommodate those planes.
The deal specifically states that the costs of maintaining and training the Migs should be borne by the Lebanese state. The same state, mind you, that is struggling to pay for teachers and workers and whose finances are so strained we had to beg for ParisII donors and their humiliating strings.
So the costs are high but the benefits should be worth it, right? I’m not too sure. Will 10 Mig-29s be sufficient to affect the balance of power with Israel? Would they present any form of military deterrence? What guarantees that the Israelis won’t just wipe them out in one preemptive strike like it did to the Egyptian Air Force back in 1967?
In other words, the Lebanese are about to take ownership of very expensive showpieces that would most likely just end up lying around.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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It is 1967 actually.
Why not view it as beginning of Lebanon’s air force?
That is if you will not decide to pick a fight with Israelis right off.
The chances of successful fights against Israeli planes look pretty dim. And it would take a l-o-n-g, l-o-n-g time to train pilots. I wouldn’t be surprised if the total bill getting up to fight time ran close to a billion dollars +. And if somebody did come along to pick up the tab most people would agree that the money could have been used for better purposes.
As for Syria, they would be kinda pissed if attacked and would probably get their ideas for retaliation from their operations in Hama back in 1983(?)
Elias Al-Murr is the Minister of Defense not Interior (Baroud is the Minister of Interior)!
It is the start of our Air Force.
They won’t make much of a difference against Israel or Syria, but it is an important sign that all internal factions see the benefit in strengthening the sole national institution in our country … the Lebanese military.
Leo and Ghassan,
Sorry for the factual errors. They’re now fixed.
Bronx,
I think a billion is on the higher side. It won’t cost that much. But then again, one never knows.
Antoun,
Let’s hope what you say is true. Is the Army really that dissociated from the Lebanese society and its politics? Nshallah.
“BEIRUT: Local parties reacted Wednesday to Russia’s decision to provide Lebanon with 10 MiG-29 fighter-bombers as the head of Moscow’s defense cooperation body confirmed the planes would be free of charge.” Daily Star 18.12.08
If Russia is really picking up the costs for the aircraft, I humbly withdraw my estimate of 1 billion dollars. I will still maintain that whatever funds Lebanon must put out to have a credible force would be better spent on other things. Forgetting about social programs for the moment, the Lebanese army needs a lot of modernizing to get its ground forces up to acceptable standards. Wars are won by the guys on the ground. Hezbullah probably wouldn’t want the competition, though.
I think the major issue here is the symbolism of the act. You are fortifying the army, on which already millions of my tax money is spent every year. Plus you’re giving the Lebanese airspace a kind of protector.
Realistically these planes won’t serve much la defensively wala offensively, bas the fact remains that it’s a step in the right direction.
Mig 29 without a static defense made of SS 300 anti aircraft rockets or its french equivalent esther, is useless.
These planes however can serve inside an internal conflit, for ex the type of one we got last year in Nahr Bared, so against palestinian camps or other military camps (fplp cg in the bekaa)
frenchy — while I don’t pretend to be a fighter pilot (usually), I believe that MiGs are used for establishing air superiority; ie: shooting down other planes. Not sure how useful they would be against militants’ camps in the Bekaa. But I could be wrong.
Anyway, nice post Mustapha. I tend to agree. “Symbolism” be damned — if the Russians had spent the equivalent of the cost of ten MiGs on giving Lebanon tanks, air defense, or on officer training, they would have helped Lebanon far more. And they know it.
Dbk,
I don’t think we should complain about Russia’s donation. They’re not obliged to give us anything.
What modernises our military is $$$. We don’t have a strong economy, nor a direction to establish a strong economy, which is a result of our continued political instability.
It is our national interest to centralise political power, to end corruption, to invest in the economy and the people (collectively and equally, not in sectarian cantons), and to subsequently build a strong military.
Last I checked, no political party had this as their number 1 agenda item. That’s our problem, not Russia, and that’s why I’m not voting next year.
I was under impression Russians are selling those jets. Now I hear they are giving it away.
I am beginning to worry.
Mustapha,
I have finished a 5 minutes Podcast on the same topic; prior to having seen your post on BS. You and some of your readers might want to give that a listen at: Ramblings11.mypodcast.com.
Mus,
This is nothing but a PR move by Russia. Anyone want to take bets that they’ll never reach Lebanon?
For God’s sakes they do not have enough funds for teachers, hospitals and even the International Tribunal.
Lebanon is the street beggar of the world…
What’s the benefits from antiquated Migs?
No Arab country can pretend to challenge the supremacy of israel in the air! If this is to strengthen the army, Russia should’ve have offered some military choppers equipped with rockets…
well put mustapha and frenchy has a point. i think switching a couple of those migs into firefighting planes to help put off those repetitive summer forest fires would have been more productive
If Lebanon ever takes delivery of these plans then this will be a big waste of money, and not to mention, it won’t be the best “bang” for their buck. For they will have no impact
What so ever against the neighboring air forces. As far as internal conflicts, I would think attack helicopters are a more effective weapon than fixed wing jet fighters. I would say they never take delivery of these fighters.
I’m not sure what everybody is complaining about, the formula is simple:
-yesterday: no MiG’s
-today: lots of free MiG’s
who cares if the package isn’t perfect, it’s still better than we previously had which was ZERO.
Lale…,
Even if they are useless and worthless?…and a drain on the economy…
What a logic!
What does Lebanon get next that it does not have? a U boat??
Dear Pessimits,
My view is, an army has foot soldiers, air force and a navy.
Everyone used to complain that lebanon has no air force. Now that we finally are getting a respected air force unit, we start attacking the idea and wish we have something else instead? I beleive having 10Mig29 is better than having zero. As for funding, let us cross that bridge when we get there. Hopefully we will get the sam missles that will protect it, but now I can see at least the start of a soon to be a strong army fit to defend the entire 10,452km2.
Mustafa,
if the Lebanese army had airplanes, don’t you think that the military casualties would have been much smaller in the Naher Il Bared war?
Don’t you think that many lives would have been spared and saved?
And as far things are going there might be new clashes with the other Palastenian camps. Ein il Hilweh camp is stronger, and crazier than Naher Il Bared. We should be ready for those camps, and these airplanes will be very handy when clashes with those fanatics break out.
Although Russia is giving these airplanes to Lebanon as a way to get back to Isreal because of its involvment in Georgia, and giving hi-teck weapons to the Georgian army, these planes won’t be of any use against Isreal, as you said they will either be destroyed in the first day or we will have to hide them in Cypress in case of a new war. They are worethless against Hizbullah and Syria since these elements can hit harder from the inside Lebanon using inside people.
Until we get a real estimate about the expenses of these airplanes we shouldn’t be so pacimistic about this deal.
Hello Mustapha,
Since yu write on Middle East strategic and politcal issues I thought you might be interested to know that Strategic Foresight Group is launching a report titled ‘The Cost of Conflcit in the Middle East’.
It is the first comprehensive report on the various costs of conflict in the region. We currently have some interesting excerpts of the report on our website.
http://www.strategicforesight.com
If you find the report interesting please write and let me know and I will send you more material.