As yet another tragic attack takes place against Lebanese men in uniform, let’s review who the culprits behind this attack might be:
In no particular order, here are the 4 most plausible theories making the rounds in Lebanon.
Theory #1:
The Culprits: Sunni Salafist terrorists
Why it could be true: Alquaeda-linked jihadists were recently defeated and humiliated by the Lebanese Army in Naher el Bared. The idea is that the remnants of those jihadis have been on a quest for revenge ever since.
Who supports this theory: Aounists and Hezbollah supporters. The theory is convenient to them because it puts heat on their common arch-enemy: The Future Movement headed by Saad Hariri whom they accuse of funding salafist Jihadists.
Why this theory is not perfect: The Salafists have no significant presence in the south and have no sophisticated ability to trespass Hezbollah-controlled areas
Theory#2:
The Culprit: Hezbollah/Iran
Why it could be true: The attack on the Lebanese Army helicopter took place in an area controlled by Hezbollah. According to an Annahar article featured by the Lebanese Forces website, the area is a Hezbollah military zone.
Who supports this theory: Anti-Hezbollah Lebanese like March-14 hawks and a large section of the Sunni community.
Why this theory is not perfect: If the theory is true, Hezbollah will have to accept one of two things: 1- It doesn’t have proper control over its military areas, or 2- It is killing Lebanese soldiers. Both would be a huge hit to Hezbollah’s internal reputation and prestige.
Theory#3:
The Culprit: Syria
Why it could be true: Syria could be trying to undermine the army for its newly found neutrality. Cynics say that the army is the only institution left that can effectively counter the Lebanese state’s disintegration, an outcome that would allow Syria to come back to “restore peace”
Who supports this theory: Anti-Syrians who are having none of the talk about Franco-Syrian rapprochement.
Why this theory is not perfect: Syria is looking forward to its “diplomatic coup” of hosting President Sarkozy of France. Its would have postponed this operation till after his visit.
Theory#4:
The Culprit: Israel
Why it could be true: Israel had recently threatened the Lebanese state that it would target all of Lebanon if Hezbollah attacks. Attacking Lebanese soldiers flying 20kms north of its border could be a way for Israel to back up its words with action.
Who supports this theory: Hezbollah, some independent Lebanese and various leftists and Arabists.
Why this theory is not perfect: Unlike other operations attributed to Israel (The killing of Mohammad Suleiman and the bombing of the Nuclear facility in Syria), there is no strategic objective attained by this relatively minor operation. It’s hard to imagine Israel risking a war with Hezbollah for such small fry.
Do you have other theories on who might have been behind this? If you do please share with us in the comments section.
Hello, my name is Mustapha and I've been blogging about Lebanese society, business and politics since February 2005.
Since the BBC article didn’t mention any sophisticated ground/air missle – just gunfire – I would bet on a loose screw in the area taking target practice. No military force, not even Hezbullah, can control every single movement in every square centimeter under their control.
I will go with theory #2 but it may be that Hizbullah’s people have orders to prevent anyone from entering that area and they thought it is an Israeli airplane disguise as Lebanese military!
“The killing of Mohammad Suleiman”
Who is that?
Hands down its Hizballah. The message is the same as that with the killing of Fracois El-Hage, and it’s directed squarely at President Sleiman: Select a Hizbo as an Army General or there is more where this came from.
It’s highly probable that this is the work of Hizbullah protecting a sensitive defensive position.
Perhaps the copter strayed into the area without prior coordination between the Lebanese Armed Forces, and the Iranian backed fighters.
It’s a shame though that the Lebanese government needs permission from a militia to fly over its own territory.
As to answer Leo, Mohammad Suleiman is a top aid to Bashar Alassad, current president of Syria. He was assassinated a couple of weeks ago.
First of all Moustafa, the helicopter belonging to the armies are usualy heavy coated to handle fires.
The sniper did it on purpose using a heavy sniper shot on a fast moving target.
second remark, you are lowering the importance of the salafist movement in south lebanon. Yes there is the Hezbollah, but we do not have to forget about Ein Helwé next to Saïda (one road leading to iqlim el touffa goes from Saïda) and as well the presence of the Hamas and other kinds of these organisations liked or not liked to Syria or to saudia etc… in the camp of Rachidiyeh that is in the UNIFUL zone and that should be disarmed as specified by the 1701 UN resolution.
So you can complete your theory with of course the salafist theory present in this zone (remember the western secret services designed these movement responsible of the attacks targetting the UNIFUL last year.
and you can add syria through for ex the Hamas movement present in South Lebanon and this is a clear violation of the 1701 resolution.
However the motus operatis, shooting a helicopter with a sniper shot of high caliber to be able to shoot the pilote, without having the ammunition being lost in the blindage of the helicopter… this kind of theses sniper’s weapons are very rare worldwide and needs a lot of expertise and I really doubt that Hamas or Hezbollah or the salafist movement have such expertise. It is an army-secret services things.
To Frenchy,
Where did you read about the incident being a sniper hit? I would like to see that report.
Hebo did it, whether they did it or not; they cannot claim to keep weapons and control without being responsible for whatever happens there.
If they did it, it shows why they should dismantle their weapons.
If someone else did it, it’s worse, and it shows even more why they should dismantle their weapons.
Heard it’s HiZballeh from a few sources.
Now reasons for why the Revolutionary Guard should attack the Lebanese Army, that’s a whole different matter.
Personally, I’d guess it’s a case of the Revolutionary Guards’ disciplinary issue. Some scumbag was high – or just stupid – and decided to pull the trigger.
Common sense. The most sensible of all is #4. It’s Israel. Israel knows that it’s not risking anything by this operation. The main reason being is that investigations will go astray as usual and there won’t be any valid reason for a war with Israel. Besides, you mention that it is within Syria’s interests to have a weakened army, but is it not also Israel’s?
This operation adds more to the chaos and instability engulfing the Lebanon and the Lebanese political/social life, which in turn serves Israel very well. Let’s not forget that it gets all those anti-Hezbos even more anxious about Hezbollah. It is widening the gap within the current Lebanese makeup.
Yes, it’s Israel.
They shot the choppers down.
They took over Beirut and brought down the government.
They made this siting and undermined Lebanon.
They killed Hariri….
They did it all. Those devious Jews.
This is another serious slap in the face to the army and a direct challenge to its authority. The response must be decisive and swift to restore its credibility..it’s also a direct challenge to Suleiman as commander in chief and ex army chief. If the authorities don’t take a stand and allow the army to be weakened and undermined, then all hell will break lose, if it hasn’t already. It is an obvious campaign to sow doubt in the army’s capability to intervene and take charge of security across the country. Hizbo is the obvious culprit here, although what is important is that the army secures the area and takes control away from any armed thugs even if that means a bloody fight. The LAF must prevail.
It was hizbullah.
Even Safir said so:
http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx?EditionId=1027&articleId=3037&ChannelId=23401
The Army will take the hit and swallow its pride, as it did in the past, It will never retaliate against Hezbollah nor any other lebanese fraction. I’m sorry to say, but the Army is close to useless
@ RB
Usually armies helicopters are heavy steel coated, and the glasses should as well be protected against shots.
An AK 47 or similar weaponery shouldn’t be able to break this coat (unless the US gave piece of junk which is anyway the case, the lebanese army bought these helicopters for USD 40 000 each).
Only large calibers of bullets should be able to break the steel coat on a moving target, can be DCA or a sniper shot with a high velocity weaponery.
(more details on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sniper_rifle)
Another thing that is bothering me:
now some people are saying the pilot was hit through a horizontal shot, when he was just taking the air… usually armies helicopters in theses regions have the right to land only on LAF places, so the army should have been next to the place from where the accident occured. (perimeter of max 2 km)and more closed to it.
Why they did not retaliate ?
we have to wait for the results, maybe it was made by real professionals that disappeared after commiting their crime.
remember, high velocity weaponery, shot on the pilot, a moving target …
not so easy to reach …
I say none of the above, It was KADDAFI who is now pissed off with the Lebanese government!!!!!!!!!!!!
No matter who pulled the trigger, we should not forget under who’s control the area is. I still recall when the Hezb use tu put all liability on the army and the ISF after every assassination claiming that it was their responsability; well more of the same to them.
Theory #5:
Some idiot with a shotgun who got a lucky shot while “trying” to shoot at a helicopter.
Why it could be true: There’s tons of idiots in Lebanon with shotguns.
Green and Yellow Martians…Oops Hizb of Killers.
Green and Yellow Martians…Oops Hizb of Killers.
The bottom line is this:
The enemies of Lebanon strike again, and it is the indecisive policies of the Lebanese government that led to this situation.
Lebanon and unfortunately had many enemies from within, who thrive on personal gains through chaos and instability-Those who call themselves Lebanese while they’ve already sold their services to the likes of Syria, Iran and others!
The Lebanese know who they are, but no action was ever taken against them. A traitor to his own land should be prosecuted and brought to justice, and that includes those who made decisions that brought death and destruction to the Lebanese.
Hezbo promised Israel surprises, and scoring an “own goal” sure counts as one. Hezb will probably use this incident to demand further subordination of the LAF to Hezbollah’s will.
The army was emasculated in Mar Mikhael.Making sure nothing will sprout out again.
Tfeh!
It was Hezbo
They know the Lebanese aremy wont fight back – and they wanted to let them know that THEY are in control of the south
I’ll buy theory#1, 3 & 4. I know it’s cliché to blame Israel, especially for every minute thing that happens in Lebanon, but It would be more beneficial to Blame Syria and Israel than to ever Blame my fellow Lebanese.
Well, the issue is settled now. Yet another tragic reminder that Hizaballah is only competent at terrorism and other random acts of violence.
RB,
Thank you very much for your help.
Ho silly of me. I totally forgot name of that Syrian general.
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As an Israeli.
1. No Israeli government will send some body to shoot a choper 20 miles in Leb. Count possible gain versus possible lose.
2. Every body in Leb. hearded about Israeli planes flying over Lebanon.
3. The Hizb. has bases in the area.
4. The standing order in these bases, and in all Hizb. bases, will be: if only possible shoot at any thing flying above this or that base. As in the accounting above, all can see now what does happen if you hit a Leb. or UN plane, practically nothing. Just imagin what would have happened if the Hizb. have had an Israeli pilot, dead or alive in their hands. Again calculate possible gain versus posible lose. If the Hizb. is run by professionals (as it is) it is clear what the standing orders are. By the way it is probably the same in other similar situations when one side had no planes: Somali, Afganistan, Iraq, Gaza, Chechnia, etc.
5. A side benefit after all was said and all the tears were shed is that again (if needed) everybody (UN and Leb. army and also Israel)knows who is the boss in South Lebanon. From now on, for sure, no fly machine will go into the air without clearance from the Hizb. and insepction by the Hizb. befor and after (Cameras and electronic recorders, you know) perhaps, as with the newspapermen also an (armed) escort.
6. In any army the soldiers who shot the plane and their commander will be promoted and cited as an example.
7. There is no need for any conspiration theories, not in this case any how.
I think that wayward hizbillah militants are to blame. I don’t think the organization made the call though.