Assad And Putin Give Each Other Leverage

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The Russians and the Syrians are exploring their options, but broad conclusions remain premature.

Assad and Medviedev. Conspiracy in Action…

Question #1: If you were the Russian president and you want to find a way for punishing the US and Israel for training the Georgian army without stepping too much on Washington’s toes, what would you do?

Question #2: If you were the Syrian President negotiating with Israel from a position of weakness, what can you do to gain leverage?

If you find that two questions above point logically to each other, you’d understand why Israel and the US are nervous about a renewed proxy cold war in the Middle East. Russia’s anger at Israel and Syria’s need for leverage make a perfect match. But does that mean that we are moving towards an imminent era of confrontation between Washington and Moscow?

Not necessarily. Both Damascus and Moscow could simply be exploring their options and showing their opponents what they’re capable of. What they both really want are good deals and better international stature. Both countries understand that the cold war is long dead and both countries don’t afford in the long run to be in confrontation with the “international community”. Russia wants to be integrated in international institutions and Syria wants to get out of its isolation.

Showing their ability to play spoilers could simply be deft negotiation maneuvers by the Russians and the Syrians to get better terms. All eyes are now on the Americans.

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Discussion

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the start of COLD WAR II…but i wonder how cold it will be.

Posted by anthem boy | August 22, 2008, 2:57 am
If you find that two questions above point logically to each other, you’d understand why Israel and the US are nervous about a renewed proxy cold war in the Middle East.

Why should the US be nervous about that? Worked out pretty well for us the last time. Nothing makes Americans look better than a contrast with Russians :)

Posted by Craig | August 22, 2008, 6:59 am
Russia wants to be integrated in international institutions and Syria wants to get out of its isolation.

By the way… I don’t think that is what Russia wants. Russia wants to be Russia again. Look at Russia’s history, and you will understand very clearly what it is that Russia wants.

Russia is going back into isolation itself. And if Syria wishes to ride on Russia’s coat-tails then that is where Syria (and Lebanon) are going as well.

Posted by Craig | August 22, 2008, 7:03 am
I don’t believe it is Russia’s interest to prolong this situation, while Russia has been trying to regain its lost influence in those areas that it used to control once, it can’t afford a cold war…that is exactly what this is about, exploring options and sending a message that gives them some leverage. As for Syria, it is simply trying to use this situation as a bargaining chip and hoping it does work to its advantage. What I don’t like is the alleged report which states that Russia may have struck a deal with Hizb to supply them with advanced missile systems.

Posted by VOR | August 22, 2008, 12:47 pm
Actually, I think the current Russian leadership really wants a cold war. The rape of Georgia has been quite popular and the loot profitable for everyone. Plus the Russian leadership just loves to have big dachas on the Georgian coast for the holidays – better than the French Riviera (too hot).

And if you think the Russians wouldn’t send their army into action because of the greed of Russia’s leaders and bureaucracy plus the longing for lost empire of the Russian people, then you aren’t very familiar with today’s Russia.

Posted by Solomon2 | August 22, 2008, 2:57 pm
Solomon2,

Putin has been working behind the scenes for a very long time to restore Russia’s influence back to the old days of the USSR, but he has also been careful not to be in direct confrontation with the US or its allies, ie, NATO. This is just a way to send a strong message to the US to tone down its involvement in Russia’s backyard and that it wont go unnoticed. I don’t believe that Russia will allow it to get out of control.

Posted by VOR | August 22, 2008, 4:34 pm
Journalists report that Russian forces in Georgia refer to their opponents as, “the American side”. They were expecting to fight NATO and US troops as well as Georgians – a “direct confrontation”, as you put it.

Posted by Solomon2 | August 22, 2008, 4:53 pm
I don’t believe that Russia will allow it to get out of control.

It is already “out of control”, VOR. This can’t be repaired. And Russia announced just today that it’s withdrawal from Georgia is complete… while it still occupies a large part of Georgia.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7576556.stm

What is it so many people have understanding about Russia? The first battle of the new Cold War has just been fought. Russia won. Now we all wait and see what happens next.

Posted by Craig | August 22, 2008, 7:26 pm

Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.