Israel Might Do Something…Anything
With a wounded pride, an angry public, widespread recrimination and a general election looming, the neighbor down south is very likely to make an irrational and dangerous move.
Will anything interrupt Jbeil’s summer peace? (photo source)
To watch Lebanon today is to see the closest it’s gotten to an oasis of peace since 2005. Tourists are flocking in droves to a rare peaceful summer, business is booming, big plans are being made, parliament will convene after two years of absense and politicians are talking with their bitterest of foes. It would seem almost foolish to believe that a neighboring country is sharpening its knife and making loud threats.
But that is precisely what’s happening. At issue is Hezbollah’s stated aim of shooting down Israeli spy-planes over Lebanese territory. That combined with the perceived “tipping point” in Lebanon (a situation where Hezbollah is now supposedly controlling the Lebanese government) and the brouhaha surrounding Kuntar’s release have sent Israeli politicians and media running around like headless chickens.
Israeli politicians are trying to exert pressure on the UN to enforce resolution 1701 which mandates a curb on the smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah.. They say they’ll do all they can to prevent advanced anti-aircraft missiles from reaching Hezbollah and they don’t have any reason to bluff: Israeli politicians are under immense pressure to prove to their depressed citizens that they’re not weak.
The Israelis seem to be spoiling for another war. Ehud Barak insinuated that Olmert lost the 2006 war because of his “lack of experience”, Tsivi Livni is trying to wear Sharon’s mantle and warmongering Benjamin Natanyahu is leading in the polls.
Unfortunately, if a new war is to take place, the Israelis are trying to make clear that not only Hezbollah will pay the price, but all of Lebanon. A war that will “raze Lebanon to the ground” as one Israeli commentator puts it will be foolish and irrational, but that won’t make it any less of a disaster.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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israel “spoiling for another war” seriously?; “foolish and irrational” Really?
Lets see, anti aircraft missles in sassine and north and South of Litani, 40,000 rockets medium and long range aimed at israel, lebanese, weak, self serving and corrupt politicians and government making mush mush unity with hizbteezee (pride of lebanon resistance etc etc etc), continued smuggling of massive amounts of arms into lebanon, promise of ALL OF LEBANON “struggling” against zionist “entity” to save palestinians blah blah blah. Also add, a responsible, human rights minded state sponsor of terror Iran making nuclear bombs and stating its intention to wipe israel off the map. High possibility that terrorist Hizbteezee which is loyal to Iran imports nuclear weapon into lebanon and holds everyone to ransom.
Now um, why wouldn’t israel be worried? What has lebanon done to assuage the fears of israel that it is not being threatened? Secured borders? No. enforce state rule over entire country? No.
Now ask yourself, who, after watching our politicians lick the balls of nasrallah and Kuntar on international tv, will blame israel for taking such “foolish and irrational” steps? Better yet, who will stop them this time? Fouad the Slackjaw crying like a pussy? Slimy? Wally? Samir? Wahab? Sfeir? Gemayel? Claoun? Condi? BUSH? MOON at UN? GOD? ALLAH? JEHOVAH? BUDDHA? YALLA WHO?!!?!!?
Try and spin it however you want Mus…if there is another divine adventure isreal will level everything. No kid gloves, no warning leaflets dropped three hours before bombing, nothing, just loud BOOM! Hizbteezee would be finished for sure (Happiness). However, I, you, everybody will also be finished(sadness). You’re still worried about israel being “foolish and Irrational”?
*Sigh*
With a wounded pride, an angry public
Good grief, if the Israelis were into war for pride, they would have conquered Lebanon years ago and stayed there – who would have stopped them? Israel goes to war when it is afraid of being killed – and Hezbo & its allies are doing their very best to raise such fears. You’re not helping either, did you know that, Mustapha?
Mustapha, you’re dehumanizing and villifying Israelis, which is what you do to make it easier to attack someone. Why are you trying to make it easier to attack them, when attacking them provokes a harsh response? You should worry more about what Hizbollah is doing to provoke Israel.
So sad.
so you guys got all defensive and touchy just because i said that waging a war that will raze another country to the ground would be a foolish and irrational act?
Nazi Germany was razed to the ground. It was neither a foolish nor an irrational act. It cured three generations of Germans of their desire for domination and conquest. In Lebanon’s case, the sin is rather different: that of political and civic cowardice, of a society that refuses to follow the rule that it is the duty of every society to make laws and enforce them. In 2006 Lebanon committed to eliminating Hezbollah as a mortal threat to Israel as a condition to ending the summer war (“a Lebanese solution” as Siniora put it) and is now welching on the deal.
Don’t make excuses like, “Oh, the Army is too weak.” The U.N. is right there, but they won’t do anything because there is no such thing as a Lebanese leader who will stick his head out. It’s the political leadership at fault, and they are representing their constitutency, are they not? Otherwise, new Lebanese leaders would have appeared by now.
I don’t see M14 out on the streets protesting in favor of life rather than embracing death. Apparently Israel wasn’t harsh enough for your taste three years ago, Mustapha. Well, the Germans had to be bled twice before they learned their lesson. A pity that so many people can’t learn from the history of other peoples – and that so many have to die because of this.
Isn’t Israel also talking to Syria?
IMO Israel is preparing for a war, but at the same time trying to avoid one.
Hurting/destroying Lebanon is not part of Israel’s reason for being. I wish I could say the equivalent for Hizbullah.
Bottom Line: Israel doesn’t commit any territorial violations of Jordanian or Egyptian airspace. Peace is answered with peace.
So, the few million Israelis are the whole world, and the few million Lebanese are Nazi Germany?
Mus. great post, it hit the right nerves all over.
BTW has anyone seen those AA missiles on Sannine? Its not like they are Matchbox sized toys.
the few million Israelis are the whole world
Subar Dude, this is unclear. Kindly explain what “the whole world” has to do with it, please.
Your post M, is so foolish, desolate and out of focus, that I don’t know where to start.
So I won’t start…
.
Currently, Israelis are spoiling for leaders with spinal cords, an acceptable education system and for the government to finish building the godsdamned desalination plants.
Also, remember that Israeli politicians are both (somewhat) accountable and niggardly. If they can score points for cheap(like, say, by talking tough and investing in some spin) they are not going to take the risk of having to pay up for an action.
And Israelis really don’t like wars. Having an actual war is bad for business. People get killed, and it’s a big deal over here. Especially when the people in question are Israelis.
So Israel is not going to start a war. But you’re absolutely right – if the Party of God’s Imbeciles will start another war, it’ll be Lebanon starting another war. And this time, Israel will show very little restraint.
S2 – normally bringing Nazi Germany into an unrelated discussion is a sign that the thread is going straight down.
SD – the bigger the target is, the easier it is to hit. Destroying an Israeli plane will be the last mistake Lebanon does. Should this happen, there will be huge demonstrations in Tel Aviv demanding Lebanon be neutralized with extreme prejudice.
Iranian rockets fired by Hizballah were crude things, causing mostly a lot of fear and noise. Should Lebanon prove itself to be actually effective in killing Jews… it’ll be the last mistake Lebanon makes.
Solomon2 you said:
“Nazi Germany was razed to the ground. It was neither a foolish nor an irrational act.”
Not sure what this statement has to do with the civic/political cowardice you mentioned. Taken by itself, you are comparing Lebanon to Nazi Germany and Israel to a group of nations (the whole world or if thats too much, the ‘big’ nations of the time) that took it upon themselves to raze Nazi Germany to the ground. Saying that mass murder and destruction is neither foolish nor irrational is, well I don’t know. Maybe I’m too civic for that.
For some reason you got stuck on “the few million Israelis are the whole world”. I was trying to point out that population wise, there is no big difference, but somehow one group can claim that they are justified in destroying something, including civilians, then say it is a rational thing to do.
HA claims the same thing, and they are neither.
Now if you want to defend yourself, then have a ball.
The other point people fail to see is that a large number of Lebanese have no concept of civic society so don’t expect much in terms of resistance toward HA or any other similar group working to undermine the state, whether they want to raze Israel off the map, or just their neighbour’s backyard. Blaming the Lebanese politicians (ref. shunkleash) is another joke, since, like you said, they represent the people.
So yes, Lebanon can be razed to the ground, but it won’t be because of a carefully thought out, rational, epiphany by the State of Israel.
Murder and mayhem never are.
The most impressive bit about this discussion, is that almost none here from Lebanon or Israel has been ‘behind enemy lines’ lately. Mus. most likely formed his opinion by reading the Israeli press, as much the Israeli commentators by hearing the news coming out of Lebanon.
I just saw The Raccoon’s post, and thought of something. There has been enough noise during the formation of this new government about a national defence strategy that includes HA, that casual observers are already predicting the wrath of Israel on the whole of Lebanon and it’s state. Because politicians made so much noise about this, that even if it is not official (not in the ministerial statement) the link has been established.
Opinions are fascinating.
The Yahud go to war for “honor”. They also kill for “honor”, even family members. The Yahud are polygamists, the more wives, the more “honor” for the man. In Israel mustaches and beards are a sign of manhood. The more facial hair you have the more “honor” you get.
Really!
“it will be foolish and irrational” – not for the “honor-crazed” Jews with “wounded pride”.
Strategy is based, not on what the opponent’s intentions are, but what his capabilities are.
In this situation, Hezbullah is the one with the intentions, Israel the capabilities. I doubt if Israel sees this as motivation, “……to make an irrational and dangerous move”. Nasrallah’s personality gives an onlooker the impression of an irrational being – but this is kept in check by Iran (where the irrational mixes with the rational). Israel, on the other hand, gave a strong impression of incompetence in matters military back in 2006 (a trait Ohmert shares with Bush). Iran finds Hezbullah useful as a distraction in case the U.S. attacks their nuclear facilities. They
don’t want to risk this. Israel, for their part, will only react to Lebanon if Hezbullah truly establishes a mortal threat. This is not to say that everything is under control. The area has potential and the shit could hit the fan unintentionally. When you live in an earthquake zone you are reasonable to expect earthquakes. I think, though, that Mus’s expectations and descriptions are a bit out of the park.
SD – opinions are more than fascinating. Opinions shape the world. And the opinion of the Israeli public about Lebanon fell well below neutral level.
The opinions of the Israeli public command a very powerful economy and the best military in the Missile East.
Mustapha,
Hi, I only agree with you some of the time on Israel-Arab issues, but I salute you for being, with patriotism for Lebanon, fair handed.
More than once I’ve seen Lebanese try to demonstrate the evil of Israel by using quotes that David Ben Gurion wrote in his diary in 1948, in the middle of a war. Using quotes from a war that happened sixty years ago has always seemed wacky to me.
Peace (one day),
shalom to all the coomenting schmucks from the race of those who break covenants and nevr keep them…
you all rabble and emanate an egocentricism now shattered at the feet of those who threaten your illigitmate existence as usurpers.
Zionism invaded lebanon in 1982 to oust the PLO. By now, the PLO is in West Bank and Gaza (with Hamas & Jihad). In 2000 you are forced to pull out from majority of sth Lebanon; in 2006 defeated; and in 2008 humiliated!
Hear ye O Israel, the Lord Allah is now on the side of Hizb Allah and we will defeat you Insha’ Allah!
Subar Dude,
You say that many Lebanese have no notion of a civic society and therefore, as much as they may hate (Abd/Nasr/Hizb)allah and Co, they will not stand up to them.
If this is the case, then why is having a unified state is of any importance? Why not just demand a divorce? Hizballah controls the South – let them have it?
In other words, why are there not more people in Lebanon demanding separation from the South?
Please realize – what Abdallah says is what Israeli public feels – that every overture for peace was met with more violence. Bringing PLO to the West Bank and Gaza ended up badly. Giving them guns, even worse. Withdrawing from South Lebanon, disastrous. Exchanging a well-fed murderer for dead soldiers, humiliating.
The result is that if Hizballah ups the ante yet another time, the pressure to “finally show them” will be immense. It’s not about the civic society for the Sunni, Christian, and non-Hizballah Shia; it’s about insulating yourself from destruction that will be the result of Hizballah using you as the shield.