The Wait-And-See Government

The forming of a new Lebanese government will mark the beginning of a new, transitional phase. How it functions will largely depend on external factors.

Entering a new phase…

It is only a matter of hours before Mr. Seniora announces the formation of a new government. It took a while, but the arduous, ridiculously painstaking work of allocating portfolios to protegés finally seems to be over.

So what are we to expect from the new cabinet?

First, don’t wait for any controversies. This government will play it safe until the many uncertain regional issues (American elections, Syria-Israel talks, Iran vs the West) are clarified. This is why you shouldn’t expect any fight over the government’s manifesto. Expect it to be a fudge that will give each party a face-saving bone. Sayyed Nassrallah’s conciliary tone in his last speech and the subsequent visit by Hezbollah members to Mr. Seniora were a prelude to the shape of things to come.

Second, don’t look for any long-term plans. This government will only last till next year’s parliamentary elections, and every single decision will be based on that fact. The cabinet will focus on day-to-day issues that concern the average Lebanese and forget about grand plans like reforming public finances (Seniora) or the judiciary (Aoun). Expect instead generous bouts of election-driven infrastructure reconstruction projects.

Third, don’t be too shocked if the Ministers got too comfortable with this tension-free arrangement and decided among themselves to push the potentially troublesome elections forward.

And fourth, remember the golden rule of Lebanese politics and forget all the previous paragraphs: Anything is possible in this ridiculously complicated country.