Organized Terror Will Always Trump Armed Mobs



News Analysis

The latest Tripoli explosion is a sign that the pro-Syrian Alawites are shifting their tactics. To survive, the supporters of the Future Movement will have to adapt.


The Tripoli front.

The pro-Syrian Alawites have always been a minority in Tripoli, but two things have given them advantage in the past: A strategic geographical isolation with access control, and the backing of sinister strategists who meticulously plan and carefully execute terror campaigns. The latest explosion in Bab el Tebbane in Tripoli which left one dead and dozens wounded is a sign that the said strategists have begun executing their plans.

The pro-Almustaqbal Sunni factions in Tripoli are well armed. Denying that fact would be futile. But arms -no matter how big and fancy- are no match for carefully planned ad-hoc explosions that can strike fear at the hearts of people, who will slowly be demoralized, and perhaps eventually give in to Syrian dominance by seeking their protection.

Almustaqbal will have to make a difficult choice to prevail in this war. The two-fold strategy of publicly supporting the Lebanese army on one hand, while secretly arming their insecure base on the other will have to give in to a more thorough assessment of the current battle that would ultimately result in a more effective security strategy.

Guns without plans are useless. But plans require more involvement from the higher-ups who are more comfortable around offices than around war zones. Therein lies the predicament of the Future Movement.

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Discussion

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  1.  

    Thats really great you’re encouraging your viewers to fight other Lebanese more tactifully. Do you see an end to this lame conflict.

    Rest assured, the infighting has great reduced the prestige (if there was any) of Tripoly to the rest of Lebanon.

    The fact this blog encourages war so openly gives doubt to it’s Lebanese authenticity. Keep it up.

    Posted by theCourtFool | June 28, 2008, 3:19 pm

  2.  

    You just figured this out about Mustapha? I think he works for a Jew in Israel or something. I assume he uses this blog to kiss his boss’s ass.

    Pretty shameful.

    Posted by Abdullah | June 28, 2008, 3:32 pm

  3.  

    The blue square you have about the sunni strong hold gives an impression of how sunnis are stronger and bigger. But the sunni’s from Tripoli who are willing to take arms and fight are much much more smaller. Alot of people in Tripoli are from middle classes and would flee Tripoli when things get nasty.

    Posted by Ali | June 28, 2008, 4:35 pm

  4.  

    Welcome back Mustapha….

    Posted by LebanesePatriot | June 28, 2008, 4:54 pm

  5.  

    wb Mustapha. As you can tell from the first few comments, flies are feisty little assholes.

    Posted by Leb Christian | June 28, 2008, 4:59 pm

  6.  

    Mustapha,

    Noone can “prevail in this war”, or any other. This is a war of deadly mistakes, and it will spread far and wide. The ones who ignited this tinderbox are to blame, but so are ALL the players in Tripoli.

    Posted by Jeha | June 29, 2008, 5:34 am

  7.  

    Mustapha,

    For clarification purposes, is this post analyzing how the FM will think about such things, or are you suggesting to the FM how they SHOULD think about it?

    The way the post was written is disturbing, but I’d rather give this blog the benefit of the doubt.

    – M.

    Posted by M. | June 29, 2008, 1:05 pm

  8.  

    This conflict in Tripoli is something that the Lebanese Army should be involved in. If Sulemain has any balls, he should send the army there, and let them deal with stopping the violence.

    Posted by Libanus | June 29, 2008, 2:12 pm

  9.  

    I don’t understand why “you” people get offended when one has to talk about war. What do you think is going on in Lebanon right now? It’s a strategic war played out by the so called opposition. When the army is incapable of security and you have one party with it’s weapons pointed at it’s people and you have a maniac like Aoun who still thinks he’s in 1989 (lest not forget he abandoned all of this followers) and playing the dirty deeds for the other’s on behalf of Christians, not sure what you call this? Let everyone know that if it weren’t for the Lebanese people there wouldn’t be a muqawame.. the people that suffered at the end and the people are suffering now.. Yes no one is perfect but it is evident that the opposition is indulging in a war of elimination, or let us call it a silent strategic war. The problem with “you, Lebanese people”, I’m generalizing of course, is that you all claim to love your country, you tell the whole world how smart our people are and how beautiful and hte oasis of the Middle East our country is when yet all of “you” are ostriges, you follow people.. you put pictures of people, you switch sides, back stab, sell your country (of course, you are smart merchants), and none of you love your country as you think you do. What about the environment, what about our culture? what about our beaches, our economy, our dignity? what about our land? does any one love his/her country? What kind of country you want to build when there is no system, there is no government, there is no independence? there is no loyalty? all of you are bunch of scrubs.. really wake up and come clean..

    Posted by ya haram | June 29, 2008, 2:47 pm

  10.  

    I second mostafa and the guy called “ya haram”.

    I mean what did you expect?

    Like i commented on earlier posts; hizbollah invaded west beirut, bekaa’ sunni’s are getting harassed, aoun wanted the PM’s powers to be removed and now this! sunni’s are (or they think they’re) getting cornered, thats why karameh stated that now he considers himself as a “independent opposition” just to save his ass from his own people and savage the remaining power he’s got left.

    Can you blame the sunni’s from arming? can you blame the christians/druze from arming if some one else threatened there status in lebanon?

    You must be a fool if you didnt see this coming from a mile…

    Posted by Rollen | June 29, 2008, 3:19 pm

  11.  

    BTW welcome back :D

    Posted by Rollen | June 29, 2008, 3:20 pm

  12.  

    Hey,

    Thank you all for the warm welcome.

    To those who mischaracterized the nature of this post as warmongering, I plead with you to have a second reading.

    We all hate war and it’s very ugly, yet in its presence, denial should give way to understanding the dynamics behind it, not finger wagging and posturing like some aptly-named commentators like to indulge in..

    Posted by Mustapha | June 29, 2008, 6:15 pm

  13.  

    I don’t hate wars!!!
    Quite the contrary, i think it’s the best way to rid the world from agressive people.
    For the wussies that keep saying that we should stay calm and not encourage fighting between brothers (brothers???? what brothers???) and blablabla… you should go sing these refrains on Manar TV.
    Anyway, it is noticeable that the sunnis are reacting finaly and that they won’t be surprised pants down next time.
    Yes to buying weapons.
    Yes to replying to a bullet with a bullet.
    Cut the crap of unity at the expense of freedom and lets get this inevitable war started.

    Posted by Ralf | June 30, 2008, 4:14 pm

  14.  

    Mustapha,

    Your post is pathetic: childish, immauture and totally unacceptable. I cannot believe you have sunk to this new, sectarian low by promoting the foolishness and horror of war. NO ONE in Lebanon wants war, whether its Hairri, Nasrallah, the chrisitians, even Israel and especially Abu Ahmed in Tripoli who like the rest of us is struggling to make a decent living in this chaotic country – war truly would be the end.

    I am sunni and I live in Tripoli and i can tell we are just sick of all this rubbish going on – not knowing whether you are going to die or not. And I find it a shame that your post classes the whole alawaite sect here in Tripoli as ‘pro-syrian’, ’sinister’ – incredibly inappropriate. Most alawaites i know here like me could not give a damn about politics – daily life is too tough here to care for that rubbish. We all want out of this quagmire, through dialogue and not violence, and that’s what the wise Mufti of Tripoli and Shiek Saad said also.

    To show you why Tripoli does not like typical lebanese politicians, especially our our own, look at Mr mohammed Safadi, a so-called “M14 Hariri ally”, who spends half his time in Damascus and praises HA’s so-called resistance! Thats why politics in this country will never work. Mr Aoun was a hero here until those moron fundementalist idiots we have running around causing havoc here condemned him as an ‘anti-sunni’ infidel. Though Mr Karami’s powerbase has reduced here (but will explode back up when he hands out his intermitittent ‘assistance packagaes for the needy’), his brother, Rashid Karami, killed by a person claiming to be Shiek Saad’s ally yet murderously detested by Tripoli’s townfolk, is still seen as a hero – thats how things work here.

    Let Al Mustaqbal stay in beirut, HA in the south, Gageage in Bcharre, Aoun in Kesrouan and Jumblatt in the Chouf – Tripoli has always been ignored by all these parties (mostly to our detriment) but considering what is happening I say Tripoli says no to politics.

    Peace people, and lets forget this worthless sabre-rattling :)

    Posted by Ashamed of your blog | June 30, 2008, 10:20 pm

  15.  

    Goood to see you back Mustapha! Unfortunately we need to get into military strategies as a respond to Hizballah terror towards Lebanese, especially Sunni and Druze.

    - Sunni, Druze and Christians should think as a Wolf, and no longer as a Lamb, facing the terrorist group hizbrian.
    - Good military training and good welfare programs are essential to keep 14th March supporters in their lands and prepare them to resist the Iranian occupation in Lebanon.
    - The demographic disequilibrium is the most dangerous threat Lebanon: Iran create and finance terror mobs and convince them to stay in Lebanon and duplicate children as rats, while March 14th supporters migrates!

    - Arabs military supports: secretive and highly trained elite anti-terror squads (from KSA and Egypt) should come and help freeing Lebanon.

    - Moujahiddi Khalaq, the strong Iranian opposition group should get involve and help Lebanese to free themselves from the Ayatollahs. Moujahiddi Khalaq are devious and knows the intelligence games played by the Revolutionary Guards.

    - Finally, I recommend to any intelligence source fighting Iran and reading this post: the best way to deter Iranian danger and expansion is by creating a War Zone on the Iranian/Pakistani Afghanistan borders. Tribal and Sunni conservatives in Pakistan and Afghanistan shall teach Iran a lesson. They have the huge population, the ideology and arms and money ‘are ready’ to distract Iran from its expansion plans in Mesopotamia and the Arabic Gulf.

    - Ayatollahs shall face the same terror arm that their using against their peaceful neighbors.

    God Bless Lebanon!

    Posted by sam | July 1, 2008, 3:37 am

  16.  

    I could have never said it better mr “Ashamed Of Your Blog”…I’m a Sunni from Tripoli,and i could have never said it better…..Thanx for speaking for me….

    Posted by Ado | July 7, 2008, 4:19 am

  17.  

    Mustapha,
    You claim with certainty: “The pro-Almustaqbal Sunni factions in Tripoli are well armed. Denying that fact would be futile”.
    From everyone else, I hear the opposite, that’s why I was surprised, what are your resources?
    Regards, and it’s nice to have you back after a short interruption!

    Posted by Another Mustapha | July 7, 2008, 2:47 pm

Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.

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