Scrambling To Save Aoun’s Face
The first to make me smile will win…(photo source: Libération)
It can be argued that the person who lost most from the Doha accord was General Michel Aoun. According to March 14, the hapless General sold his soul for a Faustian bargain that stopped short of delivering the only thing that really mattered to him: The Lebanese Presidency.
It is not easy losing a lifelong dream, especially if you’re surrounded by gloating adversaries hurling “I-told-you-so”s. This is why Mr. Aoun has a strong sense of entitlement for whatever consolation prizes he could lay his hands on. How else could one explain his exorbitant demand for 6 ministers out of the 11 allotted to the opposition (which leaves 5 ministers for Amal and Hezbollah combined), or his demand for highly sensitive government portfolios? (The same government in which, in his words, he will act as an opposition)
Mr. Aoun is not the only one with an interest of saving his face. His allies in the opposition want him to be happy because without him there’s no veto power in the cabinet. His opponents in March 14 also want him to be happy because they see an opportunity to drive a wedge between him and his “backstabbing” allies.
In short everyone wants the general to be happy, and the best way to make Mr. Aoun happy is to make him feel like a President. This explains the Syrian president’s invitation for Mr. Aoun to visit Damascus, a visit expected to be very, uh, presidential.
This also explains Mr. Sarkozy’s unnamed surprise for Mr. Aoun. Something tells me it involves a certain presidential visit to a certain presidential Palais…
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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I do not agree about your assertion that March 14 wants to make Aoun happy. Also, the Al Balad piece is only hallucination. Aoun’s veto means nothing in this government. These are all cosmetic PR BS trying to give this government more weight. DSG, who seems to be the frankest person among pols, said it as much that it is a transitional one!
Mus, March 14 is, contrary to your point, hammering away at Orangebutt and trying to make lemonade out of him (the bitter old grump). It is contrary to March 14 interests to boost Aoun. They will hammer him until is road kill. Next parliamentary elections’ main focus is the Christians. Sunnis and Shias as well as the Druze have a monolithic party representation. If the village idiot is crushed HA will lose all as far as the democratic cover is concerned.
As for Aoun visiting Syria…Good or him. It reaffirms who his benefactors were/are/will be. It will further peel away from his support (I am sure the butcher of Damascus might compassionately release some of Lebanese “detainees” ; that Aoun said were not there…to get him a boost)…
Mus, I can re-write this post and replace Aoun with any of Jumblatt, Geagea, Hariri, & co.
M14 did not want a unity govt and veto to opposition: guess what, they have a unity gvt and veto to opposition
M14 did not want 1960 electoral law: guess what, they have the 1960 law
Now tell me what Jumblatt, Geagea, Hariri, & co. achieved that they really wanted?
But wait, this is an impossible task, because nobody, including them, knew what they wanted! They were so disorganized the opposition was running circles around!
Geagea wanted to save face, so he decided to disagree with the process! Good position. Very noble. But guess what, his allies ignored him.
Jumblatt all of a sudden became a kitty cat.
Oh wait, I give it to you, M14 got the tribunal going. Ok, that’s fair. So is this all they wanted? What was their vision of Lebanon? Blank - nobody knows. And this will hurt them at the next elections.
I see that you have not posted for days Mustapha, and then you come up with this!
That’s a very interesting change in the gameplay.
At least it’s a step in the direction of democratic politics. It’s a sigh of relief for me if we have reached that point again after tens of years of monarchic, anarchic, dictatorships, and rule by proxy.
Nchallah!
DSG is an israeli stooge, who is the most bitter, not the most frank.
Kermit, I thought you were road kill!!
Nice new layout Mustapha. I like the text box on the left.
danny, i know you eat road kill, you hillbilly!
or rather, you probably just serve hillbillies.
This is Not True,
if Anything, Out of the ‘Doha Accord’, Aoun got back the most delitcate present by having the 1960 Electoral Law included in the Bundle. The 1960 Electoral law gave a fair balance to Christian, to elect their MPs for the whole of Lebanon. And if, Anyone, needs to take credit for it, is the opposition, they got most of the deal, anyways.
Aoun got the Electoral Law which came as a Bundle to the Opposition. Hezbollah helped the Christian voice more than the March 14 - With Out Any Doubt. Though Bare in Mind… I Stood among those on March 14, 2005. I held the Lebanese Flag, beleiving in what We, the people were asking, and held high hopes for an ‘Independant’, ‘Sovereign’ Lebanon united by all sects. I dispised Aoun at the time for going with Hezbollah, which I knew hardly of, But Admired with Awe, and Guilt, That a Lebanese Militia, Fighting a powerful, and brute enemy, (though I do not see Israel as an enemy as much as Hezbollah, I crave for a fair Peace, just as much as any Israeli, … and come out victorious, and dazzled by the resistance of Hezbollah, Which In Fact Did Forbid Israel entering Lebanon.
Geagea is not the super hero out of the Doha, Mustapha, I suggest you ask your Christian freinds about the mood of the Christians ‘politically’ (if they still have the envy of talking politics after 18 months of crap).
If a new face emerges among Chrisitians, in which I there is much room for (especially whle all our young ones have been killed in the past 3 years), for Elections in 2009.
It’s going to be heated, But the Lebanese must face reality without emotions. Israel is an Enemy, Syria we must be very weiry of, and kept at bay, due to the Hariri&co Trial, in which I Want to see go Through, Thoroughly.
Mustafa,
One day you will realize that you got Aoun very qrong. He understood that he would not be President 1.5 years ago when he offered the same compromise that was reached in Doha. It was more his supporters that dreamed of him being President. You will also notice that the relationship with HA is rock solid and will continue to be so.
You will also notice the results, for certain you have never really been able to tap into the mood in the Christian street but rather went along with the propaganda of 14th March.
Aoun will go to the next elections with a very clear message: If you want true representation, if you like us are unwilling to give away your rights, if you want a strong Christian presence in Lebanon based arounf true participation, a real role, then vote for FPM.
we colored apes, of all hues, hereby submit to the international kammoonity that mustapha understands very well all the lebateez politicians, but he will never disclose this deep knowing to his typing audience here on the bayroot sbringh. ghood luck to all you typing in dark rooms.
finally, in closing, and much to the bemusement of mustapha and gang, israel will never have peace.
Hehehe well most of the replies (expet Danny’s) says it all…..14 March got a big kick in the face,and Aoun is the winner here,wait and see…..March 14 stooges,never fail to claim that any fasilure occuring to them is victory,and believe their own lies and start spreding it through their media and blogs….
If Geagea falls down the drain,JnounBlat now is a pussycat and bends to his number one enemie Arslan,and while Safadi and Ajdab(ouppppppss Ahdab) keep punching each others nose,and the Sunni street that’s angry at Saad Hariri baby for leaving them for the Shia beasts….well now u tell me who lost in the Doha agreement…and don’t forget that this will be the last we hear from The ugly witch Nayla Mowawad…..
Mabrouk with the new (?) lay-out! It looks highly professional and makes it easier to read the article.
As for the article, i think the only conclusion we can draw from Doha is that the Lebanese citizens are the true losers. We shouldn’t worry about the politicians: they always take care of each other.
Hedley and R.B,
Hey guys, no new layout, just playing around with the idea of pull quotes. I know I myself like to see them when I’m reading articles, helps a lot when browsing.
The rest,
I guess the only thing all Lebanese can say with certainty about Mr. Aoun is that only history will be able to judge him fairly. My imperfect take is just a drop in the ocean.
It’s funny to see the same old M8 fools coming out of the woodsheds again to spew their ignorance. You people obviously failed to see your Nasalaha when he emerged from his hidden hole last Monday, he appeared anything but victorious.
Cheer up guys, the end of HA is upon us. So sit back and watch the show (yeah you can weep)..
Robert,
Wasn’t Aoun’s “clear” message in 2005 the disarming of HA and the full implementation of 1559. What happened to those clear messages?
It is too fitting for him that the Lebanese don’t read or else he would have to answer for his clear Orange Book promises/program. Anyways, luckily, it is now replaced with a more concise peace of paper (the MoU) that only holds broad headlines such that even if a meteor hits Lebanon you can credit it to that agreement.
And yes, M14 lost so did Lebanon… and in 2006 and 2008 HA won but Lebanon lost… care to see a pattern!!!
Im wondering what Aounists feel about co-existing with Walliyet -el Faqih? or do they choose to ignore reality and see only what fits them best.
Ado and co are always blinded in their empty ideological rhetoric,and like their stubborn leaders,spin the BS to their liking.
Aoun is going the way of the Dodo,the sooner you realize it,the better for you and the rest of us.
Same old same old,
Always victorious!!! Whatever happens, the destruction of a country, civil war, foreign interferences to stop the bloodshed or to keep it shedding, arabs are victorious!!! Hahaha
Congratulations to both parties for their victory in Doha (even though the name of the agreement being a foreign city is a total defeat for both parties and all lebanese and all arabs).
Finally, congratulations one more time to the lebanese people who, once more, delayed the inevitable defeat by another illusionnary victory.
Beklawa anybody?
“His allies in the opposition want him to be happy because without him there’s no veto power in the cabinet.”
It’s all going to be about positioning for the next elections. Hezbo needs Aoun and the orangettes and so a “vote” for any Orange is now clearly a “vote” for the yellow Hezbo. Aoun is now a full partner with Iran and their plan for Lebanon and they can’t complete their plans without him. Tough place for Hezbo to be in when you consider they have tied their wagon to a very unstable opportunist who will always put “Aoun” first.
That’s the bottom line.
thats a nice pic for aoun by the way,
brings out the hazel in his eyes, and the
beauty of his soul, good job mus
everyone here can substitute political names in his/her analysis for the names of the politicians on the opposite side, keep all the same words, and it becomes clear to me how all analysis, beginning with mustapha’s, is full of …..
typing is crap.
the only thing that matters is standing up to power with your own power and will on the ground.
long live palestine and lebanon, strong and completely liberated from israeli apartheid hegemony.
Mus,
unfortunately it seems the yellow jackets and the orange crew are loitering this blog…Their intellect seems unmatched!!
danny is the smartest. he has been taught all the colors.
Michael Young’s new article freaks me out guys.
What the hell do we do?
j-
Young’s editorial really got my attention too. I read it a second time and then I thought, hey, this guy is a journalist – he’s putting down his best guesses as to what is going to happen. It doesn’t have to play out the same way. For example, he uses the phrase, “…..here is a scenario we should watch out for….” Scenario = possible outcome only. He also writes, “It is very doubtful that Syria will carry on serious negotiations without ensuring, first, that it has military leverage over Israel through the southern Lebanese border.” I don’t know how Young is measuring that, but Israel might find an alternative route thru Damascus as the way to go – actually, that should be “over” rather than “thru” Damascus. The Israelis could pass this sort of message to Syria out of the public spotlight. Basically, the Syrians could wind up paying a heavy price for pushing things too far. There is another line in the article, “Syria gets the Golan but is also granted effective hegemony over Lebanon - an arrangement with which the Israelis have no problem, nor did when they were bargaining with Hafez Assad during the 1990s.” , that seems a little shaky. Israel might look on Syrian occupation differently now than it did in 1990. A lot of things have changed. Iran could also get a closer looking at by the U.S. The excuse of going after their nuclear weapons potential has been around for a while. As with Syria, getting the message through to Tehran to keep a tighter leash on their pitbulls, Hezbullah and Hamas, or the price to them is going to be expensive, might act as a deterrent. At any rate, I found other items in the article that I could talk about but this essay is already too long. In summary, Young doesn’t have to be right.
j, you SHOULD be freaked out. Just don’t whimper too loudly.
and to answer your question, “what the hell do we do?”
You don’t do anything. You type. Like mustapha and friends, ya3ni the “guys” you refer to. just type away, buddy. type type type. The real men will do what they need to do.
In the meantime, just sit and worry about the fact that we are not best friends with isreal and they dont love us like we wish they loved us, cuz they are sooooo cool! Oh, and please don’t cry too loudly about it. I have enough trouble sleeping at night with Mustapha’s loud crying.
j, you SHOULD be freaked out. Just don’t whimper too loudly.
and to answer your question, “what the hell do we do?”
You don’t do anything. You type. Like mustapha and friends, ya3ni the “guys” you refer to. just type away, buddy. type type type. The real men will do what they need to do.
In the meantime, just sit and worry about the fact that we are not best friends with isreal and they dont love us like we wish they loved us, cuz they are sooooo cool! Oh, and please don’t cry too loudly about it. I have enough trouble sleeping at night with Mustapha’s loud crying.
Pink flamingo -
“The real men will do what they need to do.”
If you are in the Hezbullah camp (I apologize if that’s not so) I’m kind of lost as to what “real men” do. Since Nasrallah sets the priorities I decided to see what he does:
1- He rallies the troops for war over a video screen. No balls there.
2- He collects body parts. If the word “man” is used it should be preceeded by “sick”.
3- He builds his defenses, hides his weapons and places his troops right in there with the civilian population. Neat for propaganda purposes.
4- Since strategic thinking is done in Iran his keepers are not especially envious of his ability to think big.
5- He has ordered his troopers to kill fellow Lebanese.
You might want to check out a short poem by Rudyard Kipling called “If”. It’s not a bad place to start to get a description of “real men”.
and do you fit the kipling description, bronx-man?
Unfortunately, multicolor apeman is right.
When the shit hits the fan, hezboz laikas are not afraid to open their mouths.
Stop analyzing and go get some real training, you don’t want to be catched pants down again.
M14 are just wussies -
I think that 15 years of civil war has given a lot of people “real training” so don’t sweat the training part. When the shit hits the fan again it’s going to provide Damascus and Tehran with a lot of additional parking lots. They are the ventriloquists with Hezbullah playing the dummy. Up until now it’s only been Lebanese blood, so the keepers don’t really care. Take advantage of the current technology in communications to try to get people to think outside the envelope of automatic weapons and RPGs - that’s where writing and speaking come in. The alternative approach, which has been used for so many years, doesn’t seem to be worth a shit based on the body counts, destroyed buildings, economic disaster and broken lives that it has brought. It might be a big order for a lot of people to think in terms of trying to keep Lebanon from becoming another failed country, but changing the minds of some just might help turn the tide. Rambo is just celluloid tough, Lebanon is made up of real people.
“…changing the minds of some just might help turn the tide…”
Tell me how that works out for you, bronx ghandi.
“…Rambo is just celluloid tough…”
That is perfectly right. The rambos of lebanon ran away to save their metrosexual denim jeans, electronic toys, and shiny automobiles.
Just quoting:
“red banana Says:
June 7th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
“you people”! i like that! you are so enlightened.
eh, if you haven’t noticed, i’m not a people, i’m a banana.”
I was trying to figure you out - thanks for the help.
This explains everything.
of course it explains everything, that was what i was trying to do, help you explain everything. all you needed to figure out everything was to confirm that i am not only using the name “red banana”, but that i am ACTUALLY a red banana. glad i can help.
now if you would just realize that michel aoun is not leader of the “orange” people, but that he is an actual, physical burtuqala, then all your confusion would dissipate and your problems, as well as all the problems of lebanon, would soon be over.
if you need with any other matters, just ask.
Does this coloured vegetable think he needs to answer every single post. Dude,… sorry, Rainbow Fruit, a blog, if you haven’t noticed, is meant to throw in ideas and points of views until you get bored with the whole concept of a blog and realize how futile it is, and how much time you wasted on it. So stop taking it seriously especially that you don’t sound like a serious person… pardon, plant.
Do you remember what the fruit god said? NOTHING!!! Fruit and Vegies stay silent and let themselves be eaten. So behave!
And don’t fukin answer to this post!!!
ralf,
dig you really think i would let get away with that?
why did you feel that you had to answer me, and try to one-up-me? you just described yourself in that witty comment of yours! YOU are taking this blog too seriously. well, maybe we both are. and please don’t tell me to behave; i will tell you to behave first.
just for the record: i am not really a banana, i’m a mawze.
car insurance ny rate…
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