With all this talk of a deja-vu fighting, Sowar, a specialized photo magazine has published a special issue on the civil war. You can check a sample of the issue online for free here, or go to their website for print editions.
PS: if you think you have a website that will interest the readers of this blog, please don’t hesitate to send me the link like the people from Sowar Magazine did.
The latest Tripoli explosion is a sign that the pro-Syrian Alawites are shifting their tactics. To survive, the supporters of the Future Movement will have to adapt.
The Tripoli front.
The pro-Syrian Alawites have always been a minority in Tripoli, but two things have given them advantage in the past: A strategic geographical isolation with access control, and the backing of sinister strategists who meticulously plan and carefully execute terror campaigns. The latest explosion in Bab el Tebbane in Tripoli which left one dead and dozens wounded is a sign that the said strategists have begun executing their plans.
The pro-Almustaqbal Sunni factions in Tripoli are well armed. Denying that fact would be futile. But arms -no matter how big and fancy- are no match for carefully planned ad-hoc explosions that can strike fear at the hearts of people, who will slowly be demoralized, and perhaps eventually give in to Syrian dominance by seeking their protection.
Almustaqbal will have to make a difficult choice to prevail in this war. The two-fold strategy of publicly supporting the Lebanese army on one hand, while secretly arming their insecure base on the other will have to give in to a more thorough assessment of the current battle that would ultimately result in a more effective security strategy.
Guns without plans are useless. But plans require more involvement from the higher-ups who are more comfortable around offices than around war zones. Therein lies the predicament of the Future Movement.
Many things are going on in my life right now (moving houses + extra work + newly pregnant wife 
), so my deepest apologies for not updating Beirut Spring as much as you’re used to. (besides, despite all the manufactured stories intended to bolster negotiation positions for the formation of the new government, these are really slow news days in Lebanon)
Anyway, the best way to stay updated with the next post is to subscribe to my RSS feed (how this works), and in the mean time, here’s to hoping this mental break doesn’t last too long…
Senators John Kerry (Dem.) and Chuck Hagel (Rep.) seem to think so in an article in the Wall Street Journal.
The Future Movement’s stance was politically important for Mr. Hariri, but it won’t be a major hurdle to the formation of a new government.
Imad Zaghloul, an FM supporter hospitalized after being attacked by mobs. (source: Almustaqbal)
Yesterday, Mr. Saad Hariri “suspended” the Future Movement’s contribution in the cabinet Line-up talks. The move was in protest against security breaches by opposition armed gangs in the FM power base of Tarik el Jdideh. Mr. Hariri demanded that the security section of the Qatar agreement be honored before any further talks can take place.
Considering the size of Mr. Hariri’s parliamentary bloc, the move in effect halts the formation of the crucial government. So how big of a deal is this?
According to a source close to Mr. Hariri, the regular intimidation and bullying by armed mobs is radicalizing the Future Movement’s supporters who were already humiliated from their perceived impotence during the previous raid on Beirut. The “Sunni street” is becoming vocal in demanding harsher, more militant measures from Mr. Hariri, on the grounds that the “others only understand the language of force”, he wrote. The implicit political threat is that the supporters will start seeking more radical options if the government fails to guarantee their security.
Under these circumstances, Mr. Hariri decided to put his metaphorical foot on the ground to call attention to the security situation in various areas of Beirut. Mr. Hariri is not interested in stalling the process of forming the new government, according to the source, but he wants the proper security conditions in place. As soon as those are addressed, Mr. Hariri will be the first to celebrate the formation of a new government.
The first to make me smile will win…(photo source: Libération)
It can be argued that the person who lost most from the Doha accord was General Michel Aoun. According to March 14, the hapless General sold his soul for a Faustian bargain that stopped short of delivering the only thing that really mattered to him: The Lebanese Presidency.
It is not easy losing a lifelong dream, especially if you’re surrounded by gloating adversaries hurling “I-told-you-so”s. This is why Mr. Aoun has a strong sense of entitlement for whatever consolation prizes he could lay his hands on. How else could one explain his exorbitant demand for 6 ministers out of the 11 allotted to the opposition (which leaves 5 ministers for Amal and Hezbollah combined), or his demand for highly sensitive government portfolios? (The same government in which, in his words, he will act as an opposition)
Mr. Aoun is not the only one with an interest of saving his face. His allies in the opposition want him to be happy because without him there’s no veto power in the cabinet. His opponents in March 14 also want him to be happy because they see an opportunity to drive a wedge between him and his “backstabbing” allies.
In short everyone wants the general to be happy, and the best way to make Mr. Aoun happy is to make him feel like a President. This explains the Syrian president’s invitation for Mr. Aoun to visit Damascus, a visit expected to be very, uh, presidential.
This also explains Mr. Sarkozy’s unnamed surprise for Mr. Aoun. Something tells me it involves a certain presidential visit to a certain presidential Palais…
We have spoken at length about how Iran’s influence is growing in the region, but a 5-point summing up of their tactics will do no harm, right?
Thomas Friedman, It’s all about leverage, New York Times:
The “Iran & Friends” strategy is built on five principles:
Principle No. 1: Always seek “control without responsibility.” In Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq, Iran & Friends have veto power over the politics, without being held fully responsible for the electricity. America’s allies, by contrast, tend to have “responsibility without control.”
Principle No. 2: Always insist on being able to both run for political office and bear arms. In Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq, America’s opponents are both in the government and have their own militias.
Principle No. 3: Use suicide bombing and targeted assassinations against any opponents who get in your way. In Lebanon, Syria is widely suspected to have been behind the spate of killings of anti-Syrian journalists and parliamentarians. One suicide attack on a major official in Iraq can neutralize superior U.S. power.
Principle No. 4: Use the nternet as a free command and control system for raising money, recruiting and operations.
Principle No. 5: Cast yourself as the “resistance” to Israel and America, so any opposition to you is equal to support for Israel and America and so no matter how badly you are defeated the mere fact that you “resisted” means you didn’t really lose.
My favorites are No 1 and No 5. I would add one more principle:
Principle No. 6: After coup operations that secure more political power, always consolidate with a swift tactical peace that will mollify your traumatized opponents who will jump at anything that resembles peace.
Thoughts?
Twitter
Facebook
RSS