Should we be thanking Bush and Ahmedinejad for this coffee? (Reuters)
In today’s article in Annahar, Mr. Khoury couldn’t help but notice a deluge of good news in the region, citing 5 specific items:
1- The miraculous birth of the Doha accord
2- The simultaneous announcement in Damascus, Ankara and Tel Aviv of Syrian-Israeli indirect peace talks
3- The finishing off of the Mahdi Army in Iraq and the advancement of American Tanks into Sadr city
4- The swiftness with which the US denied Israeli reports of an imminent bombing of Iran
5- The Announcment at dawn (US time) by Washington that it supports both the Doha accord and the Israel-Syria negotiations
Mr khoury concluded that “something” could be in the works between America and Iran and Syria.
That would be Ironic since the American administration doesn’t support Israeli-Syrian dialogue. Besides, George Bush got himself into hot waters at home when he made a point from the Israeli Knesset that talking to Iran is similar to appeasing the Nazis.
But perhaps there really is a secret “grand bargain” and that Mr. Bush is a conspirator par excellence who really knows how to throw good smoke screens.. Thoughts?
Hello, my name is Mustapha and I've been blogging about Lebanese society, business and politics since February 2005.
Where’s Abdel Haleem Hafez when you need him most…
“Qareat el Fanjan”…
No further comments re: conspiracy capital of the universe…
the Lebanese blogger R , among others, was one of the first people to suggest that maybe a “grand bargain” was in the making. The confluence od all these developments cannot be ascribed only to coincidence. Yet it is not clear yet what that bargain might be. I suspect that the bargain is related to the efforts by the Bush administration to achieve some real forward movement in the Arab/Israeli position prior to leaving office and preferably prior to the Nov. elections. Any major move towards a Golan heights accommodation is a move that will weaken the rationale for HA as a body whose only purpose is to fight Israel. If we see a movement along the lines of giving back the Sheba’a farm then that will be a confirmation of such a deal. Given that all of the above is true then HA would been under pressure to reinvent itself as a political party only whose reward for phasing out its military wing was to give it a chance to become a responsible political party.
Heh, Bush may very well *be* a smoke screen.
There are always back line “deals” and “talks” happening. It’s a Democratic party-line myth that the US does not talk to all these people. We know they “talk” all the time. It works much like the UN Security council. They meet and announce the “done deal” once all has been agreed to behind the scenes. We also know what “dialog” means to both Iran & Syria. Translation = give me what I demand with no compromise on my part. Bush and Colin Powell learned this immediately with Syria and refused to play Syria’s game anymore.
I think Iran and Syria have both made it clear that nothing will happen “officially” in any way until after the US Presidential elections. They feel they would get a better deal from Obama (if he wins) and they are correct. In the meantime – Syria & Israel will try to hammer out what they could each live with (they have been working on this forever) and who ever knows about Iran?
Bush (much as I have disliked many of his policies) has an advantage few Presidents have. He is a “hard nose” about several things and terrorism is one of them. He doesn’t have to worry about re-election and his legacy that everyone talks about? …. it’s already been made and the future will judge it. Gains toward his “democracy principles) either will happen (unlikely) or not. His attitude is that “if you push me hard enough – be aware I will push back”. Few recent Presidents have been like this. Not saying it’s a good thing but it is part of what defines Bush. It’s important to remember that he entered Iraq right before his re-election – no President does that because the Americans hate war and always punish Presidents that enter wars. He has been concentrating on their economies for the last several years and that is showing results. Conditions are particularly bad in Syria. There is no doubt that the entire Arab world is very unhappy with the Hezbollah attacks against the Lebanese Government.
Interesting news from the UK & the EU. The UK just removed the MEK (Iranian Resistance) from their Terror List (the EU will probably do the same) and Iran is NOT pleased. The European Parliament Speaker Hans-Gert Pöttering just announced that he was “comfortable” with the Doha agreement and that the EU had been preparing to issue a “decision” about Lebanon. It is essential for HA to stay off the EU Terror List and they may have threatened to include them – not unreasonable after they attempted coup. The USA and the increasingly conservative EU have a lot of “incentives” to convince Iran & Syria to calm down a bit and Iran/Syria may have just decided to do that until the next US President arrives. Bush won’t “sell” Lebanon – who knows about the future President?
Ace,
Very well put!
“It’s important to remember that he entered Iraq right before his re-election – no President does that because the Americans hate war and always punish Presidents that enter wars.”
Actually Presidential approval ratings are usually high at the beginnings of conflict. It’s when the war drags on that approval rates tumble.