Two veteran American commentators who have spent time in Beirut and who are sometimes referred to as the “Liberal Neocons”, have seen what happened in Lebanon and reached similar conclusions.

David Ignatius, in [1] “Iran is winning; can the US bolster the Arab center?”

The center is under siege in Lebanon and across the Middle East as the region becomes more polarized between Iranian-backed extremists and United States-backed forces. Iran’s proxies strike at will - seizing control of Beirut neighborhoods in a naked show of defiance; lobbing missiles into Israel from Gaza to disrupt peace talks; creating havoc in southern Iraq and Baghdad.

And then, with the cunning that makes Iran such a difficult adversary, Tehran’s friends retreat - striking deals that tilt each time a bit more in favor of the radicals. It’s a familiar pattern: Iran unsheathes the sword, bloodies the moderates enough to show its power, and then puts the sword back in the sheath. Would that America were so deft in helping its friends.

Thomas Friedman in [2] “The New Cold War”:

the struggle for influence across the region, with America and its Sunni Arab allies (and Israel) versus Iran, Syria and their non-state allies, Hamas and Hezbollah. [..]

For now, Team America is losing on just about every front. How come? The short answer is that Iran is smart and ruthless, America is dumb and weak, and the Sunni Arab world is feckless and divided.

This narrative is popular in the Middle East, Iran and in Israel, but it is yet to be accepted by the majority of the American people.