I would say that within the next 5 to 10 years, the Shiites will have alternatives to Iran for leadership. If Najaf can remain independent of Qom, there could be some interesting possibilities. But none of this is going to play out over the course of days or weeks or even months.

“Iranian benevolence for a limited few will eventually dry up, then what?”

Payback time, that’s what. The “owner” wanting to recoup his investment. People better start to think about what’s waiting over the horizon after Hezbullah completes a total infiltration of the political scene. You can get a feel for it just by seeing how Iran is run. And you can add to the mix Lebanon acting as a springboard for military adventures with Israel. That’s what “buffer states” are used for.

“yet the population fails to act as a unified independent nation”

Amen! That’s the key. It’s the “how” that’s constantly out of grasp.

We’re not very wily. We deal with the local dictator until he makes us regret it, and then we go ballistic and decide it’s democracy time.

Sometimes it works beautifully.

Other times….

Prices can only go so high before alternatives to oil become economically attractive on a commercial scale. Canada is already experiencing an “oil sands” boom. See http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9231894 . This because there is a perception that long term price over time will remain high enough (above $40 per barrel) to make the expensive process of mining and refining it profitable. The U.S. is likely to follow suit with oil shale projects, if prices remain elevated for an extended period.

From an economic perspective, oil producing countries best strategy is to keep average oil prices over time just below the level at which oil sands (about $45 dolars per barrel) and oil shale (about $60-70 per barrel) become commercially viable. This is because the U.S. and Canadian reserves of those hydrocarbon sources are massive, that is, they vastly exceed the oil reserves of the middle east countries.

While there are some valid points on the surface, about apparently advances by the Iranian axis, none of it has really amounted to much.

And one has to wonder, on the other hand, if America is so dumb, and the Iranians so damn smart, then howcome Arabs keep blaming everything on some omnipotent “American project” for the region.
I mean, those “dumb Americans” can barely tie their shoes, let alone put together some kind of masterplan for the region. With such stupidity, it’s amazing Israel hasn’t been wiped off the planet already, but these uber-smart Iranians, right?

(That was sarcasm btw)

Abdul, you must think the US is obsessed with Lebanon. Makes you feel important?

There is a value in letting Iran and it’s allies overplay their hand. The rest of the world will be forced to choose which future looks more appealing to them.

I wonder what kind of world Abdul and his buddies want to create – I think their self identity depends so much on conflict with others that their world would end up pretty radioactive – kind of like a global vitrification project.

The problem with you (your kind, I mean) is that you’re not willing to fight for your beliefs. You are mentally weak, and you don’t have a guiding leadership, and a source of inspiration.

Your opponents are ready to die for their cause. You are not ready.
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