Reading Into The Situation
Did Hezbollah make a big mistake? Is it Bush’s fault? What will Israel do now?
(photo credit: AFP)
The Daily KOS (American activist Left blog, leans towards Obama), makes the argument that Lebanon is already messed up and that someone as incompetent as Bush shouldn’t have made it worse by meddling with it:
Given Lebanon’s vexed history since the 1940’s, one can’t honestly say that even if the US had handled the Lebanese situation more adroitly—by taking a smaller, quieter role instead of using internal Lebanese developments as evidence of the salubrious effects on Arab democracy supposedly brought about by our invasion of Iraq—that Lebanon would have avoided a power struggle between Hezbollah and the Sunni-Druze led government.But yet again, the Bush administration bumbled in to a complex situation in the Middle East, and made pronouncements that demonstrated its ignorance and dangerous naivety. And once again, a situation arises where, because of our invasion and occupation of Iraq, we have no credibility to intervene diplomatically or help bring about a situation that would be both better for the local population and most likely less likely to empower declared adversaries of the United States.
Rex Brynen, of McGill University argues that Hezbollah has made a big mistake , something which it lately seems to be making a habit of:
First, there was the 2006 war, which Hizbullah clearly did not foresee (although it was quite foreseeable). As it turns out they secured their “divine victory” because the Israelis made even more serious mistakes, but it certainly wasn’t a triumph of strategic master thought.
Then there was the withdrawal from cabinet, and the “tent camp” siege of the government–which turned out to NOT to have the rapid and decisive effect that Hizbullah intended. Nasrallah seems to have never anticipated that he would simply be ignored, and that it would be business as usual in the Grand Serail.
Finally, there is the take-over of West Beirut. While the rather foolish and incautious cabinet decisions were the cause of this, I think it was also driven by Hizbullah’s continuing inability to leverage M14 as much as they wanted to. The withdrawal of fighters from the street (albeit, after some very thuggish behaviour by their Amal and SSNP proxies) was clearly intended to spin this all as a reluctant Hizbullah with a national agenda (rather than a sectarian move), they’ve clearly underestimated the effect in the Christian community where it has all done substantial damage to Aoun (a fact that even his most loyal deputies are privately admitting). Given that the Christian community is the only one in play–the Shiite, Sunni, and Druze communities are all pretty much solidly behind the Hizbullah/Amal, Mustaqbal, and the PSP respectively, and now even more so–the long term result could be a politically weakened M8. Ironically, this comes at a time when M14’s weak government performance were causing it some real problems with its constituents–however, events in Beirut will now counter that with a “rally around the (sectarian) flag” effect.
It is also possible that the M14 groups will now do some serious arming and training (despite all the accusations, their past efforts have been VERY limited and haphazard), probably with Saudi/Jordanian/Egyptian support–not really in Hizbullah’s long-term advantage.
Finally, what does Hizbullah do if M14 just ignores Hizbullah’s obvious preeminent military power? I suspect they’ll do exactly that: not soften on the “presidential package” (next cabinet/PM, new electoral law), leaving Hizbullah no better off than before. Indeed, given the damage M8 has taken in non-Shiite communities, in a few months it could even be in a somewhat worse position.
In short, I think this is far from being an unalloyed masterstroke of strategic brilliance.
Over at Israel, they are not happy at the Lebanese army’s perceived compliance with Hezbollah. Yoav Stgern writes in Haaretz:
The close ties between the army and Hezbollah go beyond the recent battles. They also extend to south Lebanon. Under UN resolution 1701, the Lebanon Army was to deploy in the south and thus take up places occupied by Hezbollah, something that had raised hopes in Israel. Today, UNIFIL and the Lebanon Army respond to every incident in south Lebanon, but the presence of the army has no real significance there. At the moment of truth, the army will follow Hezbollah’s orders, diplomatic sources believe.
But the Israelis are spotting an opportunity: (In a nutshell, “Phew, now that Hezbollah are the rulers, we can bomb the Entire friggin’ country to pieces…”)
Former IDF chief of staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak said Sunday Hezbollah’s persistent attempts to take over Lebanon could eventually benefit Israel in its struggle against the militant group.“If an armed conflict erupts it will be simpler to strike Lebanon when Hezbollah is the legitimate ruler,” Shahak told the Army Radio.
Earlier on Sunday, Israel’s Vice Premier Haim Ramon told cabinet members that Lebanon must be viewed as a “Hezbollah state,” after the Shiite guerilla group seized control over the western part of the Lebanese capital over the weekend.
“Lebanon has no government. It is a fiction, there is only Hezbollah,” Ramon said during the weekly cabinet meeting. “Hezbollah is directly responsible for everything that happens [in Lebanon], and the organization completely controls the state.”
I’d like to hear your thoughts and reactions..
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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I think that the two things that Hizballah wants to achieve from this (other than showing its military strength) are:
1. The international tribunal. HA wants to get the 4 officers free, kick the investigators out and seize their files!
2. Get the UNFIL out!
Other objectives are secondary.
Please Israel invade Lebanon! With American help you can destroy Hezbollah for us. Israeli and American society is superior to filthy Hezbollah. Our quality of life will be much higher if we align with Israel. Israel will give us money and prosperity.
Kos-kids hate Bush a priori. Any argument by them against the US and/or Bush therefore should not really be taken serious.
If this was a big mistake by Hezbollah, I don’t know. They seem to be in a position in the world that they can almost afford anything. Kidnapping soldiers and not letting their family know how they are doing; let alone let them being paid a visit by familymembers or even the Red Cross, without anyone but the family members and Israel really condemning their despicable behaviour. This is just an example. There are many more examples - and I’m sure you can name a few. So, in other words: they can make mistakes, but no-one has the guts to do something about it. No-one has the guts to actually condemn what they are doing. What’s this nonsense about appeasing by Siniora e.g. saying: “the real enemy is Israel”… what is this bull shit? the real enemy - by far - is not Israel, but Hezbollah. When does the Lebanese government finally get this? They are being hijacked but prefer being so and blaming the regional scape goat for all the mess, rather than the actually criminals in the region. Why?
Concerning Israel: you can also put it this way. If the Lebanese government would finally get rid of Hezbollah and Syrian/Iranian influence, there would be no need for Israel to attack, but there would exist an opportunity for cooperation and development - such exist between Israel and Jordan and Israel and Egypt - on e.g. water matters.
Your comment is meant to be sarcastic - you know - just like me - that Israel had a difficult time fighting a guerilla group in the north, while trying to convince the Lebanese (didn’t work out) and the international community (didn’t work out) that they were not fighting Lebanon, but Hezbollah. If Hezbollah will be in charge (as Hamas is in charge of Gaza) there will be a legitimate enemy (as Hezbollah aims its target in destroying Israel).
One more reason to kick Hezbollah’s butt and open the bottle of opportunity for prosperity and peace rather than the bottle of war and disaster.
Suzanne,
1. There was no Hezbollah until Israel invaded and tried to annex parts of Lebanon. So your entire “get rid of Hezbollah and Israel won’t invade” premise is preposterous.
2. Israel has about 10,000 Lebanese in prisons, compared to the three Hezbollah have. (Hint: 10,000 is more than 3.)
The problem is Israel. Ever since Jews were kicked out of Europe, Europe has seen peace and their new homeland, the Middle East has seen war.
This isn’t the first time either. Jews have caused evil wherever they live, for their entire history.
Oh, and if you animals try to invade Lebanon again, you will get your asses handed to you. Don’t try it kike.
As an outside observer, it seems to me that the Bush-bashing on his administration’s US-Middle East politics with all its faults (no doubt) is just nebulizing the real problem and real threat in the Middle East. That is the imperialistic policy of the Iranian regime. Since the Iranian islamic revolution in 1979 the regime works hard with the help of local Shia groups in countries such as the gulf states and Libanon to take over step by step the Middle East. The goal in Lebanon is within reach. The long term goal was always to export their Shia revolution and to erase Israel from the map. The present conflict in Lebanon proves that HB statements and activities in the past regarding their internal affairs within Lebanon were simply just camouflage. Once Lebanon is totally controlled by HB every Lebanese will be forced to serve their belligerent interests inrespectively of their confession or opinion. Now and not later it is necessary to stop HB to take over Lebanon.
oh please… the daily kos? that’s like quoting Pravda during the cold war.
Abdul, by comparing the 10,000 to the 3, you are neglecting to consider the value of a free person (an Israeli in this case) to that of a murderous besotted religious hate-filled robot (a Hizbullah fighter in this case). I would say it should be 100,000 to 1, instead of 10,000 to 3. Israel needs to jail another 290,000 on this math.
Well the March14 are doing a huge mistake by continuing the war in Tripoly after all calmed down.
@abdul, jews created prosperity wherever they lived. You envy them, therefore you spread antisemitic hatred against jews. Try seeing them as human beings. Jews actually make good friends - why don’t you give it a try?
To put it in a regional perspective, looks like the Shi’i community/sect all around the ME, becomes bolder and more self confident.
From Iran, Iraq through Syria (where reports suggest many Syrians choosing to become Shi’i), Lebanon, Gaza (not Shi’i but will be), the gulf states, Saudi and Yemen.
It resembles the gains of Nazi Germany during the first years of Hitler as head of state.
(I’m not suggesting Shias are Nazi.!)
In both cases it was a period of awakening from years of depression and humiliation (Germany after WW1, Shias after being depressed by Arabs).
The problem is that the rest of Arabs have no goal, have no leaders, and have no plan for the future.
At the same time, the Shias have a strong goals, decisive leadership, and are united and determined to gain more power, politically religiously and economically.
.
Hmmm, how can a sunni become a shi’a? Is there an official way?
Aoun’s latest statements highlights the aim of HZB/Amal,
That is to divide and to break into crumbs the M14:
“…-We have an agreement with Hezbollah… no bullets will be fired at the eastern side.
-Hezbollah will not extend its operations to Christian areas” (NowLeb).
Typical Roman empire tactics. Divide and rule.
.
@ Kos,
Guys, I suggest you read the Kos article and not condemn it “a priori”, as this particular piece is unlike their shrill stuff and shows some good knowledge of Lebanon…
Abdul, 10 000 prisonners? Can you please tell us where you got that number, because I would like to bet you a million dollars that the number is closer to 5. It would be probzably help if you get informed before ridiculing yourself.
As to the claim that Hezballah was created as a result of the Israeli invasion, once again get your facts straight. The Shiite community was throwing flowers and rice at Israeli tanks when they entered Lebanon. Yes I know, that sounds surprising, but once again, getting informed may help you to avoid looking like a fool in the future.
Mustapha, I hate a good come-back of yours :P so i followed your advice and read the kos-article. Perhaps because English is not my native language, but I do not get it why it is wrong to say that the US helped creating a positive revolution in 2005. Do they mean that the US help was bullocks or do they mean that there is not much to cheer about?
The article also states:
“With 18 religious groups recognized by Lebanon’s government, the situation is complex, but roughly speaking the main divide in the country is between the Sunni Muslims and Druze on one side and the Shiite Muslims on the other side, with the sizable Christian population split between the two camps.”
If true, why is the christian population split? What’s the reason for that?
it further states:
“Israel jammed cell phones in the zone where it fought Hezbollah in 2006″
i haven’t heard of this. Any reference?
also:
“And once again, a situation arises where, because of our invasion and occupation of Iraq, we have no credibility to intervene diplomatically or help bring about a situation that would be both better for the local population and less likely to empower declared adversaries of the United States. ”
Typical for Kos. In the event one situation is viewed as negative, the other event can be positive after all. Though in general the credibility of the actors involved might need a serious boost, the possibility of success cannot be so easily denied.
The Daily KOS… what a bunch of morons.
Yes, please, someone point me to a source for this “10,000 prisoners” stuff I keep hearing. Even Hizbollah itself doesn’t claim this.
[quote]There was no Hezbollah until Israel invaded and tried to annex parts of Lebanon.[/quote]
Annex?! Israel does not want any part of Lebanon just like it didn’t want any part of Syria or Egypt.
Fact remains that the PLO was kicked out from Jordan (very violently I might add) and they made their new terrorist base in Lebanon. Four days prior to the first Israeli invasion (with civil war in Lebanon now a few years old), some 40 Israeli civilians were gunned down by terrorists who came from Lebanon. The last exchange with Israel you had (I’m Australian by the way and not Jewish) was caused by Hezbullah starting it via a cross border attack.
Fact remains, if the Lebanese had control of their border and left Israelis alone, you would have absolutely no problems with Israel. Instead you have a foreign sponsored militia fighting a proxy war for Syria and Iran at your cost and all you do is make excuses when the IDF hit back.
Exactly what was missing! Israel to start attacking us too! Area full of criminals!
Well Israel only invaded Lebanon because South Lebanon was hijacked by Palestinian Militia and from there rockets and commando teams hit Israel. The first Beslan= Maalot Massacre when a Palestinian Group make hostages 30 Israeli children and murdered more than 20 came from Lebanon.
Lebanon could be a second Israel, and maybe even more in prosperity and civility but sadly bad apples and external influence can wreck the great potential.
Btw Abdul not even in Gulf your medieval speech have a place.
Just burn the stupidiest country in the world.
I hope you all get massacred so we can watch something else on TV.
M8, M14 all animals!
Very happy for you
Keep up the cleansing, the world will be so better off without you.
LL yeah thank you for reminding me that Israel is the most peacfull and human rights respecting country.. We have seen enough of the crimes it did to the Palestinians, and I know that Israel is a better murderer than Hizballah too, please refer to what Abdul Says the May 12th, 2008 at 12:00 pm the two points only, as for the rest, I do not think that what he says about the Jews is true
1. Jews haven’t created prosperity anywhere, and have created misery everywhere. Now that Europe is rid of Jews, thanks to Germany, you no longer see them embroiled in economic struggle and war.
Who is embroiled in economic struggle and war? The two places Jews wound up - America and the Middle East. Germany’s and Europe’s economy is fine. They live in peace. They’re prosperous. But now the Middle East struggles and is in a constant state of war. Now the United States (the other major destination for Jews) is struggling and embroiled in war.
If you don’t see that Jews are the root cause of this problem then you must be blind to their thousands of years of history. Don’t forget who conspired to kill Jesus 2,000 years ago.
2. Israel would have annexed Southern Lebanon if not for Hezbollah. Have they given Gaza and the West Bank back? No. See how they treat Palestinians? That’s how they would treat Lebanese. Thank God Hezbollah was formed in 1983 and successfully kicked them out.
The computer you are using to type your message is an invention of Jews, Abdul. Follow your word and throw your computer out of the house. Be sure not to take any medicines Jews made in order to get people cured. Be sure not to get high tech cardiac operations with tools invented by Jews. I wish you well in your world full of hatred and hope never to meet you untill your heart opens up for peace and love.
btw… Arabs (or palestinians) in e.g. umm al fahm and nazareth and such cities have not much to complain. How does Lebanon treat its Palestinians?
They’re not “its” Palestinians you kike. They’re refugees, expelled when Israel invaded and annexed their lands.
My computer wasn’t invented by Jews, you kike. The only thing Jews invent is fraud, theft (what they call “business”) and misery.
stop all this hateful arguing. YOU ARE ALL KIKES!
“They’re not “its” Palestinians you kike. They’re refugees, expelled when Israel invaded and annexed their lands.”
“Now that Europe is rid of Jews, thanks to Germany”
Funny how you ignore the historical facts pointed out above and are reduces your your childish, hateful dribble.
The Palestinians LEFT largely on their own accord because the Arab leaders at the time TOLD THEM to leave. The arabs expected a swift victory over Israel when they turned to war after rejecting the UN partition plan (which Israel accepted). Arabs lost…they have lost everytime since and will continue to do so because they are filled with irrational, moronic, hate filled individuals like yourself.
Today, you clowns trying to re-write history. Here is the Syrian prime minister at the time on the matter.
“Since 1948 we have been demanding the return of the refugees to their homes. But we ourselves are the ones who encouraged them to leave. Only a few months separated our call to them to leave and our appeal to the United Nations to resolve on their return.” - Haled al Azm, the Syrian Prime Minister 1948.
@Abdul, the Sudanese and Eritreans fleeing to Israel (of all countries!) are much better treated as refugees than the Palestinians in Lebanon. Why?
Because it is easy to shit on Palestinians if that only benefits your hatred towards Israel.
No one is going to point me to a source on the 10,000 prisoners? Aw, come on, I was expecting some proof. Nothing at all?
It’s so easy to hate…