Over at Michael Totten’s blog, various Lebanon experts have weighed in on the meaning of what’s happening in Lebanon today.
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The beirut spring is a blog that is interested in Lebanese society and its politics. It started in February 2005 after the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
May 8th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
It is all very easy to understand. Hezbollah is trying to get its way. What happens in politics? Realpolitik. Hezbollah does not care, they are backed by Iran and Syria, and they don’t see America and France as seeing Lebanon as that high of a national interest. What they want to do is scare 14th March into keeping them in tact, “containment” telling them they cannot cross what the press has been calling the “red line.”
If 14 March does not listen, they will have war. 14 March will not benefit. In the end France and the U.S. won’t really help much, or if they do it will be very limited. It is just not ready to get involved in this at the moment. I cannot see the U.S. doing anything other than putting sanctions (which is what Zalmay Khalilzad said he was going to do).
In the end its all about power. The one with the power calls the shots. Don’t be deceived by democracy rhetoric. Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran hold the balance of power, simply because Hezbollah is too strong and has too much respect in “public opinion” of the Arab world and Lebanon to be truly taken on. In a war, they would win out.
They are not stupid. Look at the Shi’ah in Iraq - Moqtada Sadr always does this. He says “I will fight you if you take away my weapons!” and then Maliki is like “no no please don’t!” and lets them keep their weapons. Its the same analogy. They are both backed by the same state - Iran.
Iran’s stated foreign policy goals since Khomeini is hegemony of the Middle East, a neo-marxist “Shiite revolution.” They accepted Syria as a friend because of its semi-Shiite-ness (Imam Sadr did this in ‘79). Now they want Lebanon and Iraq.
Remember what happened in Gaza. Did America invade Gaza? No. The only people who would try to invade Lebanon and stop Hezbollah in the case of a civil war would be Israel because it is in their direct national interest. But we’ve seen how that has gone out before, both in the 80s and in 2006.
Hezbollah is being as strategic as possible. March 14th is in shambles because they don’t understand the nature of power politics. In the end everyone coats it with words like “the constitution,” or “democracy,” or “justice,” but they really don’t care. Everyone is seeking his interest, and thus power, and 8 March is not going to let go of it.
I feel very sorry for Lebanon for having to be in such a crappy location to put up with this. God bless.
May 8th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Siniora will be taught a lesson for his arrogance.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Anyone know why Hezbollah doesn’t just go into the government building and overthrow Siniora? They could do it in a second. The army isn’t loyal to that Israeli agent.
May 9th, 2008 at 12:40 am
yes lebanon should move its location. move the entire country to france. move the amazing miraculous double mountain range by space shuttle and super strong cables. maybe saudi can finance this!
then everything will be alright, we will sing a gospel song:
ev ri tang is gonna be awrite,
ev ti tang, just lak ee sad it wooooood
May 9th, 2008 at 3:08 am
AbuHatem,
You seem to be too confident of HA’s abilities or position, though when looking at the group’s actions over the last 3 years they seem to be one miserable blunder after another. Today’s actions are another example of how desperate they’re becoming. This is a non-viable and no-win situation for them.
Irrespective of how ‘popular’ HA might seem in the Arab world and I am not sure what’s the significance of this view, ultimately it’s the Lebanese who have to decide if they can live with HA or not. Today HA stands further isolated from the rest of the Lebanese for they lost a lot of credit, particularly among the Shiites.
May 9th, 2008 at 4:53 am
“You seem to be too confident of HA’s abilities or position”
They just took over 99% of Beirut, and the army supports them, while Siniora is crapping his pants hoping Nasrallah doesn’t boot him out.
Reality my friend.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:15 am
I hope what you say is right. Nobody wants bloodshed and civil war in Lebanon. But I don’t think they’ve made blunders. They don’t really say what they mean when they talk about elections or presidents or whatever. If you look at them, yes they isolated themselves, but they did it smartly. They have the Shi’ah with them, and some allies (FPM), which is enough support for them.
Their goal all along has been to be the strongest institution in the country. As many called them “a state within a state.” They have tried to use whatever means necessary to keep a stranglehold.
They are patient. They don’t care if it takes till the 2009 elections, or if they will just scare Jumblatt into playing “chicken,” right now. Look at Maliki in Iraq for the best analogy. Its all about threats which in many ways are stronger than actual power.
This is a win-win situation for them and a lose-lose situation for the Lebanese. Either there is no fighting and they appease HA, which gives them an easy bloodless victory, or there is fighting and they take over. Iran’s foreign policy has a vital interest in having influence in the Lebanese government as with Iraq.
There is no way they can lose right now unless the government really clamps down, gets the army against them, AND gets the United States involved. However, Iran is always hanging the threat of bombing Iraqi locations and helping terrorists in Iraq against the United States.
HA is dangerous to Lebanese civil society. This is a big proxy war involved in the greater Arab-Iranian “cold war” going on.
I hope what you say is the case but I don’t think it is. I think they are going to take over, and it is going to be one ugly mess.