<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Showdown. A War Hezbollah Can&#039;t Win</title>
	<atom:link href="http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/</link>
	<description>Blogging Lebanon since 2005</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 07:42:56 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>By: Good Neighbours &#187; Undressing Hizballah</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11022</link>
		<dc:creator>Good Neighbours &#187; Undressing Hizballah</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 01:03:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11022</guid>
		<description>[...] in cases in which it has been better prepared] and the resorting to a desperate and an ultimately unsustainable siege of Beirut’s international [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] in cases in which it has been better prepared] and the resorting to a desperate and an ultimately unsustainable siege of Beirut’s international [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: No Fear</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11021</link>
		<dc:creator>No Fear</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 06:47:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11021</guid>
		<description>Well done Jay, the HA supporters will probably soon start begging for settlement, they don&#039;t know that if they continue with this they will be opening the door for something else: Al-Ka3ida had already mentioned that Lebanon will be the land of &quot;Mujahidin&quot; and if they think to high jack the country soon after extremist Sunni parties will rise and suicide bombers and iraqi scenario will happen. Iraqi Scenario is more likely to happen then Gaza one. In Lebanon the seperation is impossible so it will be cold bloody civil war.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well done Jay, the HA supporters will probably soon start begging for settlement, they don&#8217;t know that if they continue with this they will be opening the door for something else: Al-Ka3ida had already mentioned that Lebanon will be the land of &#8220;Mujahidin&#8221; and if they think to high jack the country soon after extremist Sunni parties will rise and suicide bombers and iraqi scenario will happen. Iraqi Scenario is more likely to happen then Gaza one. In Lebanon the seperation is impossible so it will be cold bloody civil war.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11020</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 04:30:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11020</guid>
		<description>Jay, don&#039;t bother.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jay, don&#8217;t bother.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jay</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11019</link>
		<dc:creator>Jay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 03:53:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11019</guid>
		<description>Hicham,

What &quot;dominance of others&quot;, who&#039;s out to dominate whom? Have you been listening to HA for the last 3 years?

I presume your home is built with &quot;clean money&quot;,  courtesy of the drug trafficking and other illegal businesses your HA engages in.

Obviously you failed to comprehend what I wrote for your type is sadly brainwashed and over-intoxicated with HA&#039;s coolaid to engage in a rational and civil discourse. Though make no mistake, with all their missiles HA knows very well this is a struggle they can&#039;t win. If their actions say anything is that they&#039;re acting out of desperation and political and moral bankruptcy. Their threats and red lines are nothing but empty rhetoric just as their void &#039;divine victory&#039;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hicham,</p>
<p>What &#8220;dominance of others&#8221;, who&#8217;s out to dominate whom? Have you been listening to HA for the last 3 years?</p>
<p>I presume your home is built with &#8220;clean money&#8221;,  courtesy of the drug trafficking and other illegal businesses your HA engages in.</p>
<p>Obviously you failed to comprehend what I wrote for your type is sadly brainwashed and over-intoxicated with HA&#8217;s coolaid to engage in a rational and civil discourse. Though make no mistake, with all their missiles HA knows very well this is a struggle they can&#8217;t win. If their actions say anything is that they&#8217;re acting out of desperation and political and moral bankruptcy. Their threats and red lines are nothing but empty rhetoric just as their void &#8216;divine victory&#8217;.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Moe</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11018</link>
		<dc:creator>Moe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 03:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11018</guid>
		<description>Bad Vilbelm, Jay, Ado....bref

I was trying to expose my point of view.

Building up momentum for a conflict is relatively a piece of cake.
Dis-engaging 2 conflicting parties is completely another story and requires lots of m3almiyeh.

As far as this mini conflict, here is a small economical simulation that&#039;s worth contemplating,

Every bullet costs up to 250 Lbp. Take a Mag, put it a dumb ass hands. Feed him with 100 bullets and be sure he&#039;ll send these bullets out in less that 30 seconds (wow that&#039;s almost 17 dollars euros per dumb head per 30 seconds).

90 of these bullets will end up in a building (that will have to be fixed later on, not even touching an opponent. 9 of the bullets will go into the air,  make a parabola, and end up on some building roof or into the water. the last bullet will either go into a passing child who never asked anyone anything, or into a suckleen box, or if the guy is lucky, into his opponent&#039;s iPhone.

tayibe. now here is the tfingeh.

they say HA/Aoun is building up for a 10 k-dumb head internal militia. Hariri/LF/14 march heik shi too.
ok let&#039;s do some math here.

- Bullets Budget per party: 1.5 millions $ / day
- Ego Budget to feed the guys and tell them they&#039;re the most intelligent guys in the world : 250 k$ / day

Multiply, divide take some safety factors here and there, and afford for some cool IPhones (useless in Lebanon) for some elites to even show them they&#039;re even better than the best. =&gt; you reach easily 5 millions / day.

Wow!

What&#039;s the added value in all that? Enno we already did this before. Do we need to have Phds in Civil Wars to understand they&#039;re useless.

5 millions are more than enough to stabilize the same 10,000 persons in an industrial project, away from all this shit.

I&#039;m not in a position to judge anybody. go ahead kick asses if you want. the minute you go to confrontation with these people, in my point of view, is the minute you start playing their stupid game.

Please know that Hariri Father was a pure luck for Lebanon back then. I&#039;m afraid this time no other Hariri will come to rebuilt everything back (and btw, got him  the merit of being treated as a thief by most of the bastards in the country right now).

I might be wrong, asses might need to be kicked on both sides. It&#039;s really like you&#039;re out with your Gf one night, she gets a verbal agression from some unknown but very muscled person. 2 choices. either you kick the guy&#039;s ass and plan in your mind that you&#039;re gonna get ass kicked (but potentially you&#039;d gain the esteem of your gf even with 4 less teeth), or you run away.

one third option though is to do it &#039;à la chirac&#039;. try the Jocker of &#039;what? i haven&#039;t heard anything...and keep walking, hoping that the guy will lost his motivation in provoking you or that some police patrol passes buy. Buy time! wait for the international tribunal, let them out there fix the macro problem first...the hell of micro pbs, HA&#039;s arsenal is a matter of days to eliminate once they don&#039;t have a funding...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bad Vilbelm, Jay, Ado&#8230;.bref</p>
<p>I was trying to expose my point of view.</p>
<p>Building up momentum for a conflict is relatively a piece of cake.<br />
Dis-engaging 2 conflicting parties is completely another story and requires lots of m3almiyeh.</p>
<p>As far as this mini conflict, here is a small economical simulation that&#8217;s worth contemplating,</p>
<p>Every bullet costs up to 250 Lbp. Take a Mag, put it a dumb ass hands. Feed him with 100 bullets and be sure he&#8217;ll send these bullets out in less that 30 seconds (wow that&#8217;s almost 17 dollars euros per dumb head per 30 seconds).</p>
<p>90 of these bullets will end up in a building (that will have to be fixed later on, not even touching an opponent. 9 of the bullets will go into the air,  make a parabola, and end up on some building roof or into the water. the last bullet will either go into a passing child who never asked anyone anything, or into a suckleen box, or if the guy is lucky, into his opponent&#8217;s iPhone.</p>
<p>tayibe. now here is the tfingeh.</p>
<p>they say HA/Aoun is building up for a 10 k-dumb head internal militia. Hariri/LF/14 march heik shi too.<br />
ok let&#8217;s do some math here.</p>
<p>- Bullets Budget per party: 1.5 millions $ / day<br />
- Ego Budget to feed the guys and tell them they&#8217;re the most intelligent guys in the world : 250 k$ / day</p>
<p>Multiply, divide take some safety factors here and there, and afford for some cool IPhones (useless in Lebanon) for some elites to even show them they&#8217;re even better than the best. =&gt; you reach easily 5 millions / day.</p>
<p>Wow!</p>
<p>What&#8217;s the added value in all that? Enno we already did this before. Do we need to have Phds in Civil Wars to understand they&#8217;re useless.</p>
<p>5 millions are more than enough to stabilize the same 10,000 persons in an industrial project, away from all this shit.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not in a position to judge anybody. go ahead kick asses if you want. the minute you go to confrontation with these people, in my point of view, is the minute you start playing their stupid game.</p>
<p>Please know that Hariri Father was a pure luck for Lebanon back then. I&#8217;m afraid this time no other Hariri will come to rebuilt everything back (and btw, got him  the merit of being treated as a thief by most of the bastards in the country right now).</p>
<p>I might be wrong, asses might need to be kicked on both sides. It&#8217;s really like you&#8217;re out with your Gf one night, she gets a verbal agression from some unknown but very muscled person. 2 choices. either you kick the guy&#8217;s ass and plan in your mind that you&#8217;re gonna get ass kicked (but potentially you&#8217;d gain the esteem of your gf even with 4 less teeth), or you run away.</p>
<p>one third option though is to do it &#8216;à la chirac&#8217;. try the Jocker of &#8216;what? i haven&#8217;t heard anything&#8230;and keep walking, hoping that the guy will lost his motivation in provoking you or that some police patrol passes buy. Buy time! wait for the international tribunal, let them out there fix the macro problem first&#8230;the hell of micro pbs, HA&#8217;s arsenal is a matter of days to eliminate once they don&#8217;t have a funding&#8230;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Hicham</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11017</link>
		<dc:creator>Hicham</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 02:04:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11017</guid>
		<description>What struggle? Here we go again, dumb arabs trying to make sense of something that is going to take away there dominance of others. Its because people like you idiots that this country will always be in a constant state of turmoil. I hope that HA kicks all your asses and turns all those homes that you built off of bribes and corruption into slums.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What struggle? Here we go again, dumb arabs trying to make sense of something that is going to take away there dominance of others. Its because people like you idiots that this country will always be in a constant state of turmoil. I hope that HA kicks all your asses and turns all those homes that you built off of bribes and corruption into slums.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Bad Vilbel</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11016</link>
		<dc:creator>Bad Vilbel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 00:04:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11016</guid>
		<description>Very well said, Jay. That is exactly correct.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Very well said, Jay. That is exactly correct.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jay</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11015</link>
		<dc:creator>Jay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 00:02:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11015</guid>
		<description>So what is HA up to? For those that still belief this entity its truly a resistance movement or just out to better the livelihood of the &#039;emprovished&#039; Shiite community, to put it mildly, you&#039;re being too simplistic in your thinking and analysis.

I think HA is not interested in creating their own State or taking over Lebanon, at least not yet. They&#039;re too clever to know neither option will be allowed to succeed. HA learned a great deal from the cunnings tactics of the Syrians to make such rash decisions.

Even with 30 years of occupation the Syrians allowed MP&#039;s to be &quot;elected&quot; and Lebanese Presidents to be &quot;appointed&quot;, just to fool or silence the critics into thinking Lebanon&#039;s political institutions are functioning. Though the Syrians long term strategy of systematically dissolving the Lebanese institutions was very much in full gear.

This is the same strategy HA been employing. They want to keep the Lebanese State barely functioning, whether with a government of their liking or a feeble government too weak to even challenge their own ultraistic motives. HA knows they can&#039;t afford to disturb the delicate sectarian balance or the  external players, all this while continuing to grow their own military, political and social infrastructure separate from the State (hint the zealous warnings against messing with their own private phone network).

If HA&#039;s strategy goes unchecked a day will come when HA dominant force simply will overwhelm the State and becomes the de-facto Lebanese State. That&#039;s why this government, with all its shortcomings, can not afford to lose this struggle.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So what is HA up to? For those that still belief this entity its truly a resistance movement or just out to better the livelihood of the &#8216;emprovished&#8217; Shiite community, to put it mildly, you&#8217;re being too simplistic in your thinking and analysis.</p>
<p>I think HA is not interested in creating their own State or taking over Lebanon, at least not yet. They&#8217;re too clever to know neither option will be allowed to succeed. HA learned a great deal from the cunnings tactics of the Syrians to make such rash decisions.</p>
<p>Even with 30 years of occupation the Syrians allowed MP&#8217;s to be &#8220;elected&#8221; and Lebanese Presidents to be &#8220;appointed&#8221;, just to fool or silence the critics into thinking Lebanon&#8217;s political institutions are functioning. Though the Syrians long term strategy of systematically dissolving the Lebanese institutions was very much in full gear.</p>
<p>This is the same strategy HA been employing. They want to keep the Lebanese State barely functioning, whether with a government of their liking or a feeble government too weak to even challenge their own ultraistic motives. HA knows they can&#8217;t afford to disturb the delicate sectarian balance or the  external players, all this while continuing to grow their own military, political and social infrastructure separate from the State (hint the zealous warnings against messing with their own private phone network).</p>
<p>If HA&#8217;s strategy goes unchecked a day will come when HA dominant force simply will overwhelm the State and becomes the de-facto Lebanese State. That&#8217;s why this government, with all its shortcomings, can not afford to lose this struggle.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ado</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11014</link>
		<dc:creator>Ado</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 May 2008 21:53:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11014</guid>
		<description>Thanx Moe really,at least o ne guy here is talking reasonably.....i totally agree with what u said....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanx Moe really,at least o ne guy here is talking reasonably&#8230;..i totally agree with what u said&#8230;.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Bad Vilbel</title>
		<link>http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11013</link>
		<dc:creator>Bad Vilbel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 May 2008 21:50:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/05/07/showdown-a-war-hezbollah-cant-win/#comment-11013</guid>
		<description>Moe,

I disagree 100%.
It&#039;s this lame attitude of &quot;we can&#039;t solve our own problems&quot; that&#039;s at the root of all this.

We need to solve our own problems and stop waiting for some magical pill to arrive from Damascus, Paris or Tehran. None of those people have our interests at heart. It is the Lebanese people who are responsible for what&#039;s going on right now because it is the Lebanese people who are carrying weapons, and pledging loyalty to various sects and zaims instead of pledging loyalty to the state.

No offense to you, man. But your argument is flawed and has been pretty much proven to be a red herring all along.

To me, it comes down to a simple choice:
1. Partition: If the majority of a given community (in this case the shia) do not want to recognize or conform to the rule of law as the rest of Lebanon sees it, they can go their own way and see how they like living in HA-stan for a few years.

2. If enough of that community is still willing to be for a united Lebanon. Then now is the time for them to speak up and join the Lebanon project and do away once and for all with their bondage to HA.

All your arguing about hungry people and all that is beating around the main issue: The rule of law. Without respect for the rule of law, by all sides, it&#039;s the law of the jungle. The basic premise to a civilized and peaceful nation is the agreement and contract taken by all its citizens to abide by the rule of law. If everytime someone&#039;s unhappy about something, they&#039;re going to go burn tires and smash windows (and this goes for all other sects too), then there is no point in even trying to have a country.
All this other crap you&#039;re talking about is immaterialy. There is no point in arguing about it if one of us is going to start burning tires and smashing windows the moment we lose the argument, is there?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moe,</p>
<p>I disagree 100%.<br />
It&#8217;s this lame attitude of &#8220;we can&#8217;t solve our own problems&#8221; that&#8217;s at the root of all this.</p>
<p>We need to solve our own problems and stop waiting for some magical pill to arrive from Damascus, Paris or Tehran. None of those people have our interests at heart. It is the Lebanese people who are responsible for what&#8217;s going on right now because it is the Lebanese people who are carrying weapons, and pledging loyalty to various sects and zaims instead of pledging loyalty to the state.</p>
<p>No offense to you, man. But your argument is flawed and has been pretty much proven to be a red herring all along.</p>
<p>To me, it comes down to a simple choice:<br />
1. Partition: If the majority of a given community (in this case the shia) do not want to recognize or conform to the rule of law as the rest of Lebanon sees it, they can go their own way and see how they like living in HA-stan for a few years.</p>
<p>2. If enough of that community is still willing to be for a united Lebanon. Then now is the time for them to speak up and join the Lebanon project and do away once and for all with their bondage to HA.</p>
<p>All your arguing about hungry people and all that is beating around the main issue: The rule of law. Without respect for the rule of law, by all sides, it&#8217;s the law of the jungle. The basic premise to a civilized and peaceful nation is the agreement and contract taken by all its citizens to abide by the rule of law. If everytime someone&#8217;s unhappy about something, they&#8217;re going to go burn tires and smash windows (and this goes for all other sects too), then there is no point in even trying to have a country.<br />
All this other crap you&#8217;re talking about is immaterialy. There is no point in arguing about it if one of us is going to start burning tires and smashing windows the moment we lose the argument, is there?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>

