Faced with a determined government, an increasingly isolated party resorts to desperate measures.
Blocking the road to the airport. (Photo credit: Reuters)
Today, Hezbollah needed a big fig leaf to cover its naked security assault on the government, on March 14 and on the average Lebanese citizen. Unfortunately for them, the cover the labor protests offered didn’t last much. It fell off as soon as Hezbollah’s own roadblocks prevented their hungry comrades from protesting. The party of god went on and raised the stakes, deciding to block off the roads to the airport “until the government withdraws its latest decisions”, namely those to unseat Hezbollah’s security officer in the Airport and dismantle their private communications network.
Is this a war Hezbollah can win?
Two signs indicate that it’s not. The first is the meagre turnout in Christian areas in today’s supposedly national demonstrations. Except in hardcore holdouts like in Mr. Sleiman Frangieh’s Zgharta, life looked normal in Jbeil, Kessrouan and Metn. It was, as one blogger puts it, a “grey Wednesday”, unlike last year’s “black Tuesday”. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Hezbollah’s Christian allies no longer have the stomach for Hezbollah’s bloody brand of resistance against Mr. Seniora’s government. Hezbollah’s support, in other words, is being reduced to its core Shiaa constituency.
The second sign is Hezbollah’s decision to block the airport’s road, which is seen as a huge gamble. Unlike the Beirut central district where they managed to camp for 500 days, every single Lebanese uses the Beirut RHI Airport, and blocking its roads will prove unsustainable. The summer season beckons and Lebanese diaspora from all sects will want to visit home. Shiaas especially send large amounts of cash to Hezbollah by stuffing their luggages with well hidden dollars from Africa and South America. Pressures on Hezbollah will mount from within and from without to clear up the Airport road. Expect Mr. Nassrallah tomorrow to announce a “magnanimous” order to clear the roads.
This has become a high-stakes game of chicken between the suddenly-bold government and the waning Hezbollah. The party that blinks first will lose big, and the bad news for Hezbollah is that time is not on their side.
Hello, my name is Mustapha and I've been blogging about Lebanese society, business and politics since February 2005.
Wow. Bloodthirsty lunatic mustapha is predicting a victory in a civil war which hasn’t even started.
relax anon, by “war” I mean political showdown.
And by the way, read the article before you comment. Your comment came only 2 seconds after I published the post
Let’s look for the silver lining in this mess. Maybe ticket prices will go down ? I can’t go to Lebanon this summer because flights out of California are at a minimum of 1800$ … on some random plane called “Air Tahiti.” Even Edde Sands
is not worth that price for this college student 
Wait wait! Where are the usual idiots that tell us HA doesn’t attack Lebanese people, only Israelis???
Where are all the asshats that are calling for negotiations with these thugs?
HA has been given every opportunity to dialogue, but instead of using parliament and other state institutions, they continue to act like the thugs they are. “My way or the highway.” People like this DO NOT UNDERSTAND DIALOGUE.
And make Mus is right. This is nothing but outright assault on what’s left of the state (which wasn’t much to start with, considering HA already has it’s mini-state up and running).
Well Abou Steif….how come you didn’t mention the Future Movement bureau in Noeiry that was raided by the Lebanese Army,after complaint from the neibouring buildings that shooting over the area was comming from this location….
The lebanese army arrested 12 persons,most of them are from Akkar,Saida,one Egyptian and one Syrian( lmao)and they confiscated manny weapons,and lots of alcohol bottles,and lots of applications for joining Future Movement….
Video of the arrest and lebanese army raid,and of the people arrested was shown on all tv stations exept future tv and lbc (off course)…
What where people from Akkar and Saida and Syria(LMAO) and Egypt doing???????
OFF COURSE PROTECTING THE DEMONSTRATION
Ado, get your head out of your ass.
Arresting guys for having alcohol bottles….but god forbid we arrest people who are throwing grenades at the army, blocking the airport, and threatening civil unrest.
nice sense of priorities, Ado.
between the suddenly-bold government
Stef, I hope you’re right but I don’t see it. Like Bared they were forced into action, by Joumblatt’s allegations this time.
Ado, this is a post about shutting down the airport. Acceptable or not?
No one wants to hear about your other crazy stories. I hate to disagree with BV, but keep your head in there.
Ado,
Do you accept Hizbollah to have a private illegal communications network and spies in the airport? This is why they are blocking the airport road, they want the government to leave them alone on these points. They are not even trying to hide the fact that they want to take over the country… How can you be so blind?
It’s called “blackmail”, by the way. “Do as we please, even if it means going against the law, or else we’ll riot.”
Good post Mustapha!! Keep it up.
Thanks BJ,
I see you’re quite active too. Let’s hope this thing ends well.
From Naharnet’s “ticker”:
8:14 Hizbullah mouthpiece Manar tv station: Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal movement said the government bears full responsibility of what happened today.
As usual, blame the victim. Last I checked, it’s not the government that’s out blocking roads and torching private property. The “responsibility” is EXACTLY on those who commit those acts. No one else.
For the love of God, SOMEONE call Berri on this shit, IN PUBLIC. His statement is exactly the same as the rapist going “She was asking for it, wearing that short skirt.”
The same exact logic…
Propaganda pros in the fundamentalist extremist organizations stress the importance that media coverage plays in keeping their issues before the public. No matter how irrational or murderous these presentations are it’s felt that they beat irrelevance. The Hezzies can only offer loud noises and blood producing projects. They definitely would be hard pressed to move from “against” to “for” something constructive in the way of governance of a country. Irrelevance will slowly swamp them as more people realize that, while the other guys are not short on faults, Hezzie brings absolutely nothing to the table that will impact positively on the future of Lebanon. They do, however, bring a bundle of negatives.
Can Lebanon really afford to let Nasrallah order his forces off the street in the next day or two, assuming that’s Hezbollah’s intention? What would it mean to the people of Lebanon if they are denied the opportunity they dearly desire to defeat Hezbollah and reduce it to yet another militia ultimately accountable to the authorities? Don’t you think Lebanese want this cloud to be lifted from their lives?
Hey Ado,
I thought your guys didn’t take arms against fellow Lebanese.
I’m sure the building they’re besieging in this video is filled with Zionist enemies, right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHTrMBv_T_0
I think that HA felt that the government was heading for a 50+1 vote next week so they unleashed their last Joker with which they’ve been threatening for months now.
In such a situation, as Moustapha said, the first one to blink looses big, and HA comes out victorious as usual (with a small pincée of demagoia of course orchestrated by HNA tomorrow).
Unfortunately, the current equation is too difficult to solve. Humiliating HA right now will be rendered as a humiliation for the entire Shiite sect, a population historically offended and kept aside by the Lebanese. Going back to history, i think that ‘La ghaleb wala Maghloub’ is the best shot. Siniora should not let the army affront a milia as this will break it into pieces as 40% of the LA is Pro HA. His best shot, in my point of view, is to dismiss the government, dismiss the parliament using his presidential power, to assign M.Sleiman as head of a transit government, and call for a new election by june based on the same law that was used to elect the Tayyar & the HA. Next, when the new parliament is almost roughly 60% 14March, 40% Opposition, they should proceed to a 50+1 Vote. May 68 was a revolution in France. De Gaulle had a very serious decision to take back then when he disappeared for 1 day and came back to resign. Either he had to unleach the French Army into the streets to hinder the power of the opposition, or he has to simply let go. After all, What’s a democracy for?.
The only assumption in all of the above is that the Lebanese people who ARE there to vote will be capable of not doing the mistake the Palestinians did in Gaza. Personally, I’m quite pessimistic about that.
One more assumption though,
M14 could simply keep the Status Quo and wait for the international tribunal to pacify Syria (hence radically hindering HA’s influence in lebanon once and for all)
I’m personally not a big fan of HA (nor any other party that jeopardizes more than 35% of sympathy in a population (democracy cannot survive above that rate).
I classify – sorry guys – HA and Tayyar al Moustaqbal into this category of people i don’t appreciate (although i consider Hariri Father as a ‘god’ who did everything GOOD he could for this country)
Can’t classify AOUN -sorry aounists- as i can’t understand what he’s doing.
Actually, i hate all what we have right now as our so called ‘representatives’. One more reason to be ashamed these days of being lebanese – Ref some article blog somewhere about Ethiopians being treated as slaves in lebanon -
Strange! I am living away, in some part of europe… and everytime I call home (I call south, and I cant reach my folks since the network of HA made the mobile signal so low… so low that I cant even talk to my parents! I cant wait till HA rolls his Yellow mobile phones)
Bottom line, every time I call people seem to not give a fu*k abt it… hey dad what is up? nothing will go to work tomorrow… there is nothing much happening, metel el 3adeh ya s3adeh… I wish the rest were like that!
Moe,
Your formula doesn’t work.
La Ghaleb, La Maghloub is what got us into this mess in the first place.
I have no problem offending the shia community if this what their idea of Lebanon is: complete disregard for the rule of law and a refusal to tackle their problems within the framework of dialogue and parliament.
We’re way past the point of dialoguing with these people. HA are nothing but bullies and thugs who are intent on blackmailing the rest of the Lebanese population into doing what they want “or else we burn stuff”. There is no reasoning with people like that. There is no dialogue with people who don’t understand the meaning of the word “dialogue”.
I’m all for dissolving the incompetent government of Saniora, and calling for new much needed elections. But this cannot happen while one side disregards the law. I mean, what’s the point in having new elections if one side refuses to abide by the results if they don’t like it? I mean, if they lose said elections, won’t they take to the streets and start burning stuff again?
No, this has to stop here. It has to be shown once and for all that violence, and working outside the law will NOT be tolerated and that you cannot blackmail the state just because you don’t like it.
I think, as long as people Ado exist in Lebanon, Lebanon will burn down to the ground.
Bad Vilbel
i know how you feel.
only that i grew up in the mess beirut was back when the lebanese said ‘OLP’s issue needs to be treated once and for all. yeah why not. but always measure the pros & cons of every decision. HA has $. with $ they managed to literrally hold most of their sect by their tongues (almost as much as hariri son is holding the sunnis with the petro$).
When you root them out, be advised that you’ll have almost 1 million hungry guys whom you’ll need to feed 3 times per day, teach, employ, integrate into ‘your Lebanon’.
things has been running like this until the late 90s, until HA got his $ and so called liberated the south. these same 1000k persons identified themselves in this party.
HA, with his new HA Land, managed to bring in peace, prosperity, and morality to the existence of a large majorité of chiites.
let’s face it, no one would have done that to chias in lebanon, with the heavy historical ‘appriori’ people have had over chias for the last decades.
one thing for sure, we can’t change that tonight, nor tomorrow, nor in the coming few years.
you need to wake people up from their hypnosis. it could take a lot of time and you can’t cure this brutally.
i donno if any moderate chiite person reading this agrees with what i’m saying. Well, he/she needs not be hypnotised in order to understand my point of view.
in the mean time, the solution is macro, not micro. we can’t solve things on our level as lebanese. every micro level decision will have a micro level response, nothing will change on the macro level and in the end, we could loose our country forever.
Moe,
I disagree 100%.
It’s this lame attitude of “we can’t solve our own problems” that’s at the root of all this.
We need to solve our own problems and stop waiting for some magical pill to arrive from Damascus, Paris or Tehran. None of those people have our interests at heart. It is the Lebanese people who are responsible for what’s going on right now because it is the Lebanese people who are carrying weapons, and pledging loyalty to various sects and zaims instead of pledging loyalty to the state.
No offense to you, man. But your argument is flawed and has been pretty much proven to be a red herring all along.
To me, it comes down to a simple choice:
1. Partition: If the majority of a given community (in this case the shia) do not want to recognize or conform to the rule of law as the rest of Lebanon sees it, they can go their own way and see how they like living in HA-stan for a few years.
2. If enough of that community is still willing to be for a united Lebanon. Then now is the time for them to speak up and join the Lebanon project and do away once and for all with their bondage to HA.
All your arguing about hungry people and all that is beating around the main issue: The rule of law. Without respect for the rule of law, by all sides, it’s the law of the jungle. The basic premise to a civilized and peaceful nation is the agreement and contract taken by all its citizens to abide by the rule of law. If everytime someone’s unhappy about something, they’re going to go burn tires and smash windows (and this goes for all other sects too), then there is no point in even trying to have a country.
All this other crap you’re talking about is immaterialy. There is no point in arguing about it if one of us is going to start burning tires and smashing windows the moment we lose the argument, is there?
Thanx Moe really,at least o ne guy here is talking reasonably…..i totally agree with what u said….
So what is HA up to? For those that still belief this entity its truly a resistance movement or just out to better the livelihood of the ‘emprovished’ Shiite community, to put it mildly, you’re being too simplistic in your thinking and analysis.
I think HA is not interested in creating their own State or taking over Lebanon, at least not yet. They’re too clever to know neither option will be allowed to succeed. HA learned a great deal from the cunnings tactics of the Syrians to make such rash decisions.
Even with 30 years of occupation the Syrians allowed MP’s to be “elected” and Lebanese Presidents to be “appointed”, just to fool or silence the critics into thinking Lebanon’s political institutions are functioning. Though the Syrians long term strategy of systematically dissolving the Lebanese institutions was very much in full gear.
This is the same strategy HA been employing. They want to keep the Lebanese State barely functioning, whether with a government of their liking or a feeble government too weak to even challenge their own ultraistic motives. HA knows they can’t afford to disturb the delicate sectarian balance or the external players, all this while continuing to grow their own military, political and social infrastructure separate from the State (hint the zealous warnings against messing with their own private phone network).
If HA’s strategy goes unchecked a day will come when HA dominant force simply will overwhelm the State and becomes the de-facto Lebanese State. That’s why this government, with all its shortcomings, can not afford to lose this struggle.
Very well said, Jay. That is exactly correct.
What struggle? Here we go again, dumb arabs trying to make sense of something that is going to take away there dominance of others. Its because people like you idiots that this country will always be in a constant state of turmoil. I hope that HA kicks all your asses and turns all those homes that you built off of bribes and corruption into slums.
Bad Vilbelm, Jay, Ado….bref
I was trying to expose my point of view.
Building up momentum for a conflict is relatively a piece of cake.
Dis-engaging 2 conflicting parties is completely another story and requires lots of m3almiyeh.
As far as this mini conflict, here is a small economical simulation that’s worth contemplating,
Every bullet costs up to 250 Lbp. Take a Mag, put it a dumb ass hands. Feed him with 100 bullets and be sure he’ll send these bullets out in less that 30 seconds (wow that’s almost 17 dollars euros per dumb head per 30 seconds).
90 of these bullets will end up in a building (that will have to be fixed later on, not even touching an opponent. 9 of the bullets will go into the air, make a parabola, and end up on some building roof or into the water. the last bullet will either go into a passing child who never asked anyone anything, or into a suckleen box, or if the guy is lucky, into his opponent’s iPhone.
tayibe. now here is the tfingeh.
they say HA/Aoun is building up for a 10 k-dumb head internal militia. Hariri/LF/14 march heik shi too.
ok let’s do some math here.
- Bullets Budget per party: 1.5 millions $ / day
- Ego Budget to feed the guys and tell them they’re the most intelligent guys in the world : 250 k$ / day
Multiply, divide take some safety factors here and there, and afford for some cool IPhones (useless in Lebanon) for some elites to even show them they’re even better than the best. => you reach easily 5 millions / day.
Wow!
What’s the added value in all that? Enno we already did this before. Do we need to have Phds in Civil Wars to understand they’re useless.
5 millions are more than enough to stabilize the same 10,000 persons in an industrial project, away from all this shit.
I’m not in a position to judge anybody. go ahead kick asses if you want. the minute you go to confrontation with these people, in my point of view, is the minute you start playing their stupid game.
Please know that Hariri Father was a pure luck for Lebanon back then. I’m afraid this time no other Hariri will come to rebuilt everything back (and btw, got him the merit of being treated as a thief by most of the bastards in the country right now).
I might be wrong, asses might need to be kicked on both sides. It’s really like you’re out with your Gf one night, she gets a verbal agression from some unknown but very muscled person. 2 choices. either you kick the guy’s ass and plan in your mind that you’re gonna get ass kicked (but potentially you’d gain the esteem of your gf even with 4 less teeth), or you run away.
one third option though is to do it ‘à la chirac’. try the Jocker of ‘what? i haven’t heard anything…and keep walking, hoping that the guy will lost his motivation in provoking you or that some police patrol passes buy. Buy time! wait for the international tribunal, let them out there fix the macro problem first…the hell of micro pbs, HA’s arsenal is a matter of days to eliminate once they don’t have a funding…
Hicham,
What “dominance of others”, who’s out to dominate whom? Have you been listening to HA for the last 3 years?
I presume your home is built with “clean money”, courtesy of the drug trafficking and other illegal businesses your HA engages in.
Obviously you failed to comprehend what I wrote for your type is sadly brainwashed and over-intoxicated with HA’s coolaid to engage in a rational and civil discourse. Though make no mistake, with all their missiles HA knows very well this is a struggle they can’t win. If their actions say anything is that they’re acting out of desperation and political and moral bankruptcy. Their threats and red lines are nothing but empty rhetoric just as their void ‘divine victory’.
Jay, don’t bother.
Well done Jay, the HA supporters will probably soon start begging for settlement, they don’t know that if they continue with this they will be opening the door for something else: Al-Ka3ida had already mentioned that Lebanon will be the land of “Mujahidin” and if they think to high jack the country soon after extremist Sunni parties will rise and suicide bombers and iraqi scenario will happen. Iraqi Scenario is more likely to happen then Gaza one. In Lebanon the seperation is impossible so it will be cold bloody civil war.
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