Monthly Archives: May 2008

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Why They Chose Seniora

A loyal, thick-skinned and safe pair of hands with no political aspirations is what March 14 wants right now.


(source)

Mr. Hariri was tempted, but something didn’t feel quite right. So he decided to consult his base and his allies and got an unanimous reaction: We love you, but now is not the right time.

It would be political suicide for Mr. Hariri to be Prime Minister ahead of a crucial election. It would allow the opposition to do to him what they did to Mr. Seniora: Blame him for all that is wrong in the country, from high food and oil prices to security outbrakes, in order to score points in the upcomming elections.

By keeping his distance from office, Mr. Hariri will focus on building alliances, on reviewing his long-term strategy and on consolidating his movement. Mr. Seniora on the other hand is used to being a straw man and has proven his mettle for keeping his cool under fire.

This might anger the opposition a bit, but Mr. Seniora is March 14‘s best bet for this period.

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The Next Fight Will Be Over One Word

The word that the Doha accord completely avoided will be the most contentious issue in the formation of a new government.


Having fun…for now (Photo credit: Reuters)

It’s easy to get lost in the joy and jubilation of normal Lebanese citizens who have all the reasons to be thrilled: Their capital city is back to normal, the glitzy center is back to its old glamor, the summer season will be sizzling and the Baabda palace will be filled as soon as next Monday. Expect a drawn out, nationwide brouhaha of fireworks, festivities and fawnfests .

But elsewhere, in the deep, secretive world of political strategists, trenches are being dug, alliances are forming and battle plans are being drawn up. At stake is not who will be the next Prime Minister, but whether or not the word “resistance” will be included in the next government’s ministerial statement, a tradition which came with every post-Taef government including that of Mr. Seniora.

Today, March 14 are planning to change that. The party which no longer believes in the legitimacy of Hezbollah’s resistance doesn’t want any reference to it. Their argument is that the Doha accord never referred to the word “resistance”, but spoke instead of the state’s military and security exclusivity, and of consolidating the state’s authority and sovereignty over its land.

Of course, Hezbollah is not amused. At the heart of their peculiar style of having it both ways is the protection of the Lebanese government’s official approval. The Party of God is gearing up for a big fight. They told Assafir that they will not approve a ministerial statement that would not acknowledge the legitiamcy of the resistance. With a veto power at their hand, it would be interesting to watch how this fight will play out and what kind of creative fudge will eventually emerge

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Beirut Electoral Map

Here’s a comparison I found at Blogging Beirut between the 2000 and the 2008 electoral laws for Beirut.

As you can notice, the changes are obviously aimed at Mr. Hariri by lumping most of the Sunnis in one district and carving 2 smaller districts for minorities:

(source)

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Quick Notes..

Just a few words about the development of this blog and other miscellany for the new readers

1- The printing feature is now fixed. To print a post, just click on the printing icon below it for a printer-friendly format. Sorry for taking so long.

2- I’m very excited that the number of subscribers to the RSS feed of Beirut Spring has reached 400 today. That’s still a small chunk of the daily readership, so if you’re still not subscribed, find out why you should and why everyone else is using RSS.

3- Remember, If there’s a post that you wish to share on Facebook (like for example the 1960s elections graphic), all you need to do is click on the little facebook icon under the post, and if you’re signed in in facebook, it will be automatically posted

4- If you have questions or contributions, remember that you can always send them to my email address: mustapha [at] beirutspring [dot] com

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Beirut Pundit Smells Regional Package Deal

Lebanese veteran pundit Rajeh El Khoury suspects a grand regional bargain behind the Doha accord.


Should we be thanking Bush and Ahmedinejad for this coffee? (Reuters)

In today’s article in Annahar, Mr. Khoury couldn’t help but notice a deluge of good news in the region, citing 5 specific items:

1- The miraculous birth of the Doha accord

2- The simultaneous announcement in Damascus, Ankara and Tel Aviv of Syrian-Israeli indirect peace talks

3- The finishing off of the Mahdi Army in Iraq and the advancement of American Tanks into Sadr city

4- The swiftness with which the US denied Israeli reports of an imminent bombing of Iran

5- The Announcment at dawn (US time) by Washington that it supports both the Doha accord and the Israel-Syria negotiations

Mr khoury concluded that “something” could be in the works between America and Iran and Syria.

That would be Ironic since the American administration doesn’t support Israeli-Syrian dialogue. Besides, George Bush got himself into hot waters at home when he made a point from the Israeli Knesset that talking to Iran is similar to appeasing the Nazis.

But perhaps there really is a secret “grand bargain” and that Mr. Bush is a conspirator par excellence who really knows how to throw good smoke screens.. Thoughts?

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Now The Hard Part

The Doha agreement diffuses the current crisis and everyone will immediately feel the benefits. But the real issues remain to be solved.


Dismantling the scar (photo credit: Reuters)

Nothing beats the sense of relief the Lebanese are feeling today except perhaps the realization that they will be able to celebrate in the heart of the now-liberated Beirut. Still, after the fireworks subside and the champagne corks are swept aside by the happily re-employed Solidere waiters, the Lebanese will return to earth and realize that the Doha agreement is just a temporary solution that only marginally addresses the major contentious issues.

The main issue at stake is the relationship between the Lebanese state and a powerful armed faction within that state. The Lebanese power sharing agreement should be looked at as a form of cease fire between Syria and Iran on one side and the rest of the world on the other. The civil war that was about to break looked like a major distraction that the power brokers decided to quench with a dose of feel-good compromise and a president on top.

Many minefields still lie ahead this small country’s future, not least the specter of a war between Israel and Iran that Hezbollah will feel compelled to join and drag the country with them. But for now, most Lebanese are in the mood for celebration; the make-up summer season ahead promises to be one heck of a party!