Can Syria wiggle its way out of what seems like a tight stick-and-carrot trap?
Will the Golan sway Assad? (Photo credit: AFP)
Very few people would like to be in Bashar Al Assad’s shoes nowadays. The corner the regime has trapped itself in suddenly looks very suffocating. In Lebanon, Syria’s hands are tied. True it has managed to successfully prevent the election of a new President up till now, but that’s about as far as Damascus’ influence can go. The international Tribunalis getting closer by the day, and the ruling March 14 government headed by Mr. Seniora lives on to oversee it.
But Syria’s real problems are outside of Lebanon. Today, CIA officers will be briefing American lawmakers on “proof” that there was a cooperation between North Korea and Syria on a nuclear weapons program. The proof will include video footage of North Koreans working in the very facility Israel had bombed last September. This will be enough to guarantee a media onslaught on Syria and a perfectly neat excuse for a potential future strike by Israel.
Is there a way for Assad out of the potential repercussions? Turkey’s Prime Minister whispered in his ears that there is: The Israelis, he said, are ready to exchange the Golan heights for peace (withholding support from hardline groups). In normal circumstances, the Syrians would have played hard to get, pretended to go along and then backtrack. But these are desperate times in Damascus, and perhaps, just perhaps, things might be different this time.
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The beirut spring is a blog that is interested in Lebanese society and its politics. It started in February 2005 after the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
April 24th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
The issues here are:
1. What Syria will “pay” in return for getting back the Golan Heights. Suffocate Hizballah, silent Hamas’ representatives in Syria, disengage from Iran, control the flow of “fighters” to Iraq?
2. When Syria will get the Golan Heights? Now? 50 years from now?
3. What Syria will “control” out of the Golan Heights? The talk is that the Golan Heights will be divided into 3 parts. One as a national park (with access to the Israelis with no visa), the other is a Syrian area with a 99 years lease to the Israealis, the third part is Syrian area but no “new” civilian areas!!! All with limited military presence.
And also, what Syria wants from the international community?
1. Limit the tribunal which is investigating Hariri assassination?
2. Financial aid?
I think the above issues should be resolved before a Asad will appear with an Israeli representative on the lawn of te White House!!!
April 24th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
If you ask me, this seems very unlikely. For several reasons.
1. The “price” for the Golan is way too high for Syria to accept for very little in return. Syria is a lot more interested in hegemony over Lebanon than it is in the Golan. So they’d get that piece of land back, and in return, have to give up Lebanon, all their other cards (Hizbullah, Hamas, etc.) On top of that Syria wouldn’t even be able to claim any kind of “honorable victory” (which is something very important in the Syrian and arab mindset, unfortunately), specially if the Golan is leased back to Israel for 99 years or whatever.
2. If The West sweetens the pot by giving Syria Lebanon, and/or a free pass on the Hariri tribunal, that’d be a LOT more to Syria’s liking. But that would royally screw Lebanon on both counts, not to mention make a huge mockery out of the international community (for having given in on the tribunal specially). I don’t think this is likely. But I think this is actually what Syria is banking on and hoping for.
April 24th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
[…] 24 Assad: We Talk Peace When Bush Leaves White House The Syrian president confirms receiving the offer of “Golan for peace”, but says he can only think of it after the American President […]
April 25th, 2008 at 9:54 am
While everybody is thinking in terms of life after Bush I haven’t come across very much about the potential for progress being related to post Ahmadinejad. Although less predictable, it seems to me that nothing is going to progress without a change in Iran also. I don’t think it’s going to matter very much whatever Syria agrees to under present circumstances.