Bashar’s Secret Code
Does the Syrian president really send secret messages to his Lebanese allies?
Not-so-subliminal message (Photo credit: AFP)
Yesterday, MP. Walid Jumblat of the Progressive Socialist Party and March 14 bigwig accused the Syrian president, who was hosting the Arab League summit in Damascus, of “giving his allies in Lebanon the secret word to obstruct government business”. But why do those instructions have to be so topsy-turvy?
According to March 14, it’s because deniability is an important component of the Syrian modus-operandi. The Syrians are pursuing two, seemingly conflicting objectives. 1- Stall progress in Lebanon until a more sympathetic US administration replaces that of President George Bush. 2- Appear to be a constructive Arab partner to reduce its alienation and appeal to an impressionable ‘Arab-street’
Others, like the Lebanese opposition, argue that this logic wreaks of conspiracy theory. They contend that Syria has no influence over some parts of the opposition (Aoun and to a lesser extend, Hezbollah), and that the Arabs are putting too much pressure on Syria to do something it really can’t do.
So when the President of Syria says “The Lebanese should reach a consensus for their own problems”, some read it as “Our Lebanese allies should feel free to continue blocking a solution”, others as “The Lebanese should reach a consensus for their own problems”
So, whom do you believe?
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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and a while ago farouk charaa said syria is now stronger in lebanon through its allies than it was during its military presence… go figure how its only up to the lebanese according to assad to resolve the crisis?!
Dania said it the best! The contradictory statements from the Syrian regime illustrate their ulterior motives! If the Syrian regime really wants the Lebanese to solve their own problem, it should demark the border between Lebanon and Syria, stop the flow of weapons to its allies (HA, SSNP, …) and to the Palestinians bases outside the Palestinian camps, and cooperate FULLY with the international tribunal!
I just want to mention an unrelated story. Al-Mualem (the Syrian Foreign Minister) said the Mughnaeh comes and goes into Syria under fake identities. His neighbors thought that he is a Taxi driver. Unfortunately to Al-Mualem, one Syrian who knows the area where Mughnaeh used to live asked with sarcasm: “How a Taxi driver can afford to live there where an apartment costs about $1 million?”
I believe that Syria’s actions over a long period of time say more about their objectives concerning Lebanon than any current published comments. My reasons:
- According to Syria, Lebanon is part of Greater Syria – and will be treated as such. ( I could see this approach weakening when one takes into consideration that Syria used to be part of the Ottoman Empire. Does that justify a Turkish takeover?)
- Syrian occupation of Lebanon speaks with a pretty loud voice in this discussion. Military occupation secured a dominant position for the Syrian security apparatus and showed its influence in, among other things, political assassinations. Occupation also impacted on the political and judicial fields. There are a lot of examples here; militarization of the courts (vs protection of human rights), political prisoners and the forced extension of Emile Lahoud’s term as President come to mind for the moment. The occupation definitely played out in the social and economic arena. One million Syrian workers (to ease unemployment back home), Syrian companies being favored for Lebanese government contracts, imports of Syrian agricultural products which helped Syrian farmers and hurt the Lebanese, and on and on. And don’t forget the cultural and media domain. Control of news and political commentary were typical for a dictatorship and Syria applied its knowledge and experience to Lebanon. And remember, Syria didn’t volunteer to leave.
- Syria needs Lebanon as a buffer to any confrontation with Israel. Having a pit-bull like Nasrallah for diversion purposes strengthens their case for domination of Lebanon.
- The overarching factor in this discussion must be Iran. Teheran has its own agenda involving political and military supremacy over the region wrapped up in a cloak of religious extremism. Syria serves as Iran’s buffer and diversion in any confrontation with Israel. Count this as an important argument for Syrian control over Lebanon.
So Mus, whom do I believe? I’ll vote for Jumblat’s position over Assad.