
March 14’s latest actions, designed to mobilize a maximum amount of supporters on February 14, are taken way too seriously.

You can all go to hell ! Sort of.
Here’s a question for you: If Mr. Jumblat was really getting ready for war, then why did he quietly call Assafir at night and tell them that his speech was “for mobilization purposes only”? (A warning is due: Assafir’s credibility is notoriously low)
In the last few days, March 14 leaders orchestrated a string of coordinated speeches and actions that managed to scandalize and freak out even the most cool-headed opposition members.
Ranging from ridicule, to war talk, to unprecedented largess, to staged bullets-of-joy shows, to trips to washington, the bold words and actions were designed to achieve 4 important objectives:
1- Mobilize a maximum amount of people on February 14
2- Restore morale to March 14 supporters who are tired of Hezbollah posturing.
3- Re-establish negotiation leverage by “putting war on the table“
4- Put the opposition off balance by creating bottom-up pressure from war-weary supporters (this works especially well with those with a preference for orange)
Is this fair game in politics? Some would argue that it’s not. They say that it is adding tension and volatility to the situation, and that it’s a dangerous dance around the brink. But then again, is the presence of Hezbollah’s weapons -and the negotiation leverage they bring by the sole virtue of their existence- fair game?
Many agree that what happened this weekend can restore the balance of terror and make a better ground for fair negotiations, leading to a breakthrough. In Lebanon, paradoxically, a credible threat of war can be the only thing that brings lasting peace. Let’s just hope we don’t get tested on that.
Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.

The only way to deal with these thugs in Lebanon is by force.
It ’s been a while that they allowed HizbIran to bully everybody in Lebanon.
It is time. If they want war, let them have one.
“Status Quo” is not an option…
This is the only language that the Safavid in Lebanon and the Alawite in Damascus understand: Force and Violence!
They should know that if they continue building the iranian empiRe on the Lebanese blood: they will be heavy consequences on them.
Persian in Lebanon (aka Hizballah) should rethink their ideology: Lebnese refuse an iranian regime in their country!
March 14th should keep firm position.
MOSTLY IMPORTANT POINT: MARCH 14th SHOULD MAINTAIN DEMOGRAPHIC AND VIOLENCE BALANCE AGAINST THE SAFAVID DREAMS.
There is an important commonality in all Bullies. They perform best when in a one on one situation or when the odds favor only them.
That’s what we are seeing - and I agree with all of Mustapha’s 4 points. Hezbollah is very worried about a rally against the intimidation and hostage taking of Lebanon. He knows he can’t muster his group anymore and include the essential Aounist Christian block. Aoun simply does not have that support anymore and his people are not willing to go to war the way HA is. That is what the recent Nasrallah/Aoun love fest was all about. If Nasrallah tries to call another Demo - he will not have the Christians with him.
Hariri & Jumblatt can get their people - it’s all going to be up to the Christian representation on Feb 14. Geagea & Gemayel are working hard - we will see if it’s enough to make a difference. I also predict that this is only the first rally - the bigger one (if this is successful at all) will be on March 14.
It’s also going to be essential to present this as a rally against oppression and fear - and not a rally for any kind of confrontation. The theme must be that “we are not afraid of Hezbollah” and “we have had enough”.
Time to try and take back Lebanon. Hezbollah will try to stop it - I expect action on their part blaming M14 and/or the Army/ISF.
All indications are that M14 has decided to play at the same level as M8 by taking a firm stand and even hinting at war. This is just a calculated strategy designed to counter M8’s tactics and to show that M14 can rally huge numbers as well. All of this is BS and will result in nothing more except for putting on a popular show. However when emotions do result in inflamed passions then there is a danger that things could get out of hand…that is why Walid bey’s comments were not all that wise. Let’s hope for a peaceful demo and nothing else. The country is already tense enough as it is.
I do not understand some people’s slave mentality.
Jat said…”that is why Walid bey’s comments were not all that wise”. WHY? Why is when Hassoun and Qassem threaten to break the heads of anyone and everyone, that no one is allowed to tell them to fuck off!!
No one wants war. But if the opposing dog thinks you are a pussy then he’ll hump you!! capishe??
Danny… I like your use of the word “Pussy” :)
I asked that before and I will ask it again: What the heck is happening with the site http://14march.org/ ????
let’s just *hope* that between today and 14th “they” don’t do something to scare people off…. anyone remember those exploded buses in Gemayel’s Bikfaya playground ?
This year what will “divinely” blow ?
Had it been not for the actual M14 street thugs who went on excited shootings, bombings and intimidations, this spectacle would have been too surreal to take seriously.
All I can say is that you deserve such leaders. They beat the drums of war and then call media outlets to whisper to them they are just kidding. They obviously have a lot of respect for you, their unwitting followers.
Go and have your party on the 14th. Try not to kill too many from the other side while you’re at it though. Sometimes “jokes” have very serious and unintended consequences.
“Had it been not for the actual M14 street thugs who went on excited shootings, bombings and intimidations’…ali, you are talking about your “tire burning”, “ain rummaneh” and ” achrafieh” invading dimwits right?/ Or were you talking about the dufuses from the Dahieh who drive around shouting in the air ever time their bearded rat comes out of his hole??…
Why is it that everyone is freaking out when Jumblatt or Hariri take on a confrontational stance? Yet we’ve heard Hassan Nassrallah threaten to chop hands and sever limbs, and we’ve heard Aoun threaten of rioting and other violent action.
People need to stop being such hypocrites. If it’s ok for Nassrallah and company to use force, riots, start wars, hoard rockets, and blackmail for veto power, then I don’t see why the other side can’t also threaten the use of force.
If anything, March 14 has waited far too long to show any teeth.
Any one have any idea on how many people are expected to take part tomorrow?
(I hope this goes through, my previous comments/questions haven’t been showing up….)
ali,
You can’t be serious. I can list 3 years worth of Nassrallah and his cronies threatening, starting wars, talking about severed limbs and starting riots.
And you just NOW decide that March14 talking a little smack is unacceptable?
Could you be any more hypocritical?
When Joumblat and 14 March beginning killing people and massacring Christians and Shia, I imagine this blog saying “Relax, they’re just sending a message to bad Hezbollah”
Seriously, is today national troll day or something?
What a witty and funny joke! Yalla, let’s have another 15 years of civil war, it’ll be hilarious!!!
In fact I think the capture of 2 Israeli soldiers was just a practical joke too!
You know what? All our politicians are just one big fucking joke. M14 or M8, what does it matter, since they both have a flock of dumb sheep that they can just let loose to stampede all over Lebanon. Yalla, run sheep run! Follow your shepherd until he leads you over a cliff.
It’s time to keep a cool head. The bad guys (Hezbo) have an organized and brainwashed military mob. March 14 will be relying on the army since I’m not aware of any large scale forces in their corner. These sort of moments have a habit of pulling away from the leaders’ control as some fanatical type does his thing and the opposing side reacts accordingly. Lebanon doesn’t need an “all hell broke loose” situation. If there really is a massive peaceful demonstration by March 14, they will have made their point. Hezbo’s masters in Damascus and Teheran will probably shorten the leash and hold off for another day. Good luck guys and be careful!
“But if the opposing dog thinks you are a pussy then he’ll hump you!! capishe??”
Danny, I think you’re right. Is that a quote direct from the bible, in one of Jesus’ talks to his diciples? Didn’t he say if you just turn the other cheek, then the opposing dog will think you’re a pussy… etc etc.
BV,
Yesterday’s absurd spectacle of an insane and bankrupt warlord, coming on the eve of another naïve and adolescent politician, and now your and others’ sophist justifications leaves one speechless.
Again, be careful playing with fire. Your boasting only confirms to me your superficial understanding of the seriousness of what can transpire. I now recognize you have no idea what you, Jumblat and the dimwits above are messing with.
Go have your little party guys, and shout empty and contradictory slogans led by murderous warlords until you’re hoarse. Hopefully the M14 hired thugs will have had their fun already, and your desperate but excited “mobilization” will once again bear nothing but the predictable trash you will leave behind.
ali,
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not “excited” in the prospect of a civil war. Nor am I having a party.
But I’m just not getting the hypocrisy of your post (and others like it). Tell me, how exactly is (and I’m using your words here) Jumblatt’s “absurd spectacle” and “empty and contradictory slogans led by murderous warlords” ANY DIFFERENT than what we’ve been listening to from Nassrallah and Aoun for the past 2+ years?
Don’t give me a runaround answer. This is a simple yes or no question. How can you call one “absurd, murderous and empty slogans” and not the other? Give me an honest answer, for once in your life. Tell me “I can’t say they’re any different.” or go away and stop acting holier than thou, when you know you’re being a hypocrite.
THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE. Your “opposition” started a WAR, back in 06 that brought 1200 deaths to Lebanon. Your opposition has threatened violent protests (and executed some of them). Your opposition has threatened to cut off people’s hands. Those are facts, right? You are all witness to all 3 things I just listed. No one can deny those things.
Now explain to me how that is different…
Too many comments to read them all.
Civil peace goes above Iran taking over Lebanon. Yes. (not that it will happen - whoever put that spook into you) [ref: the revolution will not be televised movie]
All these clown we see on TV speaking on OUR behalf completely missed the point of why we all stood on March 14, 2005.
At the time, Lebanon was in full bloom [check news archives] then Hariri Sr. died, everyone blamed Syria, and wanted the growth we had accumulated - this time without the Syrian army in Lebanon.
Sp what is this we’re ready for war??
Luk against who? Your neighbor??
How will history write this down 10 years down the road.
You will write history - with your actions, make it wisely.
Lets not be the ridicule of the middle east.
Janna - I’d love to hear from you. please email me as soon as you can to: thelebaneseinnercircle @ gmail
WE WANT WAR
(and blood and bread and circuses).
.
Unlike March 14, I don’t think that Hezbollah is going to hesitate calling its opponents’ bluff. This is why the civil war scare is going to fall flat on its face.
In a few days, there is going to be another explosion targeting civilians, which will dissuade many people from attending thursday’s rally (or at least bringing their families). The turnout will be about the same or slightly less than last year, and by next week Lebanon is going to be exactly where it was before.
The demands placed by March 8th keep piling-up. Their arrogance is beyond sickening. Nothing will please them it seems, and that’s a fact.
March 14th has been accused of being pussies, so they are flexing some muscle with these speeches. They should continue working with the West to put pressure on Syria to back off completely.
The only solution out of this is for Israel to attack Hezbollah again, who will get what they wished for. Simultaneoulsy, Syria should be de-stabilized and weakened.
Bad Vilbel, I don’t mean this in any disrespectful way, but isn’t your stance as full of hypocrisy ?
When Hizballah speaks of war we (you included) expose them for the war mongers that they are, yet when jumblat and M14 speaks of war you cheer them and say it is long overdue!
Is it only hypocrisy when people cheer m8’s war talk and condemn m14’s but not hypocrisy when we cheer m14′ war talk and condemn m8’s as you seem to have done?
Or am I missing something?
We love life indeed!
BV,
Your leaders say they are ready for civil war; their hand-picked audiences go berserk, and go on a little exercise of it yesterday. For you, this is a logical “political” move for M8. What do you want to discuss?
I must admit I am lost with this post Mustapha. When march 8 fools use violence or threaten to use violence, people rightly jump all over them. When March 14 fools use violence or threaten to use violence, we claim they are just kidding?
We can start by stating that “bullets-of-joy” aren’t so joyful for the people the bullets hit when they actually come back to ground. I know of at least one school that discovered some bullets in the playground today; imagine if there were kids when that happened.
TAC,
Where on earth did I say I wanted war? I don’t. I didn’t applaud Jumblatt in any of my comments. What I did was point out how some folks immediately jumped on Jumblatt for preaching war (if you wanna call it that), when Nassrallah and Aoun have been doing it for 3 years. That doesn’t mean I want war, nor does it mean I’m a fan of Jumblatt.
ali,
You still haven’t answered my question. How is the Jumblatt “threat” any different than the ones we’ve heard from Nassrallah for 2 years? And if you’re so incensed by Jumblatt, where were you when Nassrallah was talking about cutting off hands?
Yo,
Al Manar, the Hizb Iran porte parole, showed us two geeks analyzing Mr. Jumblatt’s mental status last night. I mean is there a way to check if these are even real doctors especially the one with the pink tie?It would be good to hit them on that just like the Aoun stuff was prove to be phony b4, what do u think?
JD,
Danny, I think you’re right. Is that a quote direct from the bible, in one of Jesus’ talks to his diciples? Didn’t he say if you just turn the other cheek, then the opposing dog will think you’re a pussy… etc etc.
Why is it whenever people want to establish their “Christian” credentials, it’s always the Golden Rule or “Turn the other cheek”? There’s a lot more to Christianity than that.
What did Jesus say about people like Aoun, JD? Any ideas? Or is “turn the other cheek” the full extent of your knowledge?
BV,
I don’t have time to for pointless debate, but to quickly answer your question above: one was protecting an arsenal whose sole purpose was and is to fight an external enemy that invaded and occupied us for decades and believes that those arms are our last credible defense, the other, Jumblat is calling on sectarian militias to arm and ready and confront fellow Lebanese and to burn the “green and the dry” in his own country.
ali,
You seem to have enough time to post drivel about March14.
So, rioting, threatening compatriots with severed limbs, paralyzing downtown Beirut…All those are ok in the name of holding on to those weapons?
I think you just outed yourself, my dear ali.
This is EXACTLY what some of us have been saying all along: Hezbollah’s sole aim is to hold on to its weapons, at ANY COST, including civil war, riots, assassinations, and severing limbs.
Good to know.
No need to debate any further. You’ve proven my point for me.
For the record: I don’t see a problem with the weapons being held by the Lebanese Army, who’s job it is to defend against Israel. When you and Nassrallah take it upon yourselves to decide that only you guys are capable of defending the south, you can’t hold it against other people to also make their own determinations about their right to the defend Ain El Rummaneh, or Saida, or Trablous, or any other place they hold dear. And you can’t hold it against others to talk about having their own weapons.
You, sir, are a hypocrite.
if you do not consider such speech preaching war then I can not even have a logical discuusion with you. Take your blinders off. M8 and M14 are both fucking ridicilous, and the only ones who will be fucked up are us. I do not want my friends in the North or Jabal or Jnoub or Bekaa or Beirut to be afraid, I do not want my fellow lebanese co-citizen whether they are shia maronite orthodox catholic sunni druze arman atheist or whatever to feel that they are threatened just because they belong to a certain sect/region. I do not want anybody to kill another lebanese in my name. The road to independence is not through killing other lebanese. The road to independence is not through planting the seeds of hatred and discrimination. the road to independence is not through saying it is ok to put bombs here and there , commit political assassinations, or kill demonstrators (or rioters whatever you wanna call them) in cold blood, and then having people justify it as it is ok.
For God’s sake when did we loose our humanity? when did we loose our basic logic?
all I see are crazed people on either side, with leaders pushing them towards war and peddling the line “but it is the other side pushing it”.
what we should do is take to the streets and tell both of them to shut up and stop gambling with our lives and our future.
We lost our humanity a long time ago. Well, at least some of you did.
Let’s Rock!!
Idiots trying to prove the “messiah” hassoun is great…and prove Junblut is a bad ass…
What a fucking mess guys! ali jump in the cold lake (please do not give any smart ass answers). BV has appropriately answered for me!!!
This is not about March 14! It is about the Lebanese people having the right to chose!…and please do not involve Israel in this. If we do not fuck with them they won’t fuck with us!!!!!!!
The point is do we want a secular nation of laws and institutions or not. Please do not give me a lecture on religion or Zion etc…
So let’s us cut the posturing. answer Yes or No: The point is do we want a secular nation of laws and institutions or not……..
About time M14 leaders grew some balls. HA and its poodles are in for a rude awakening… ‘we will take your missles’ I just love that one…
Jana and leila both said it, ALL our politicians have sold us out.
As for thursday’s demo, if it was to keep with the cedar revolution (and the memory of Rafik Hariri and all those who fell vicitms to Syrian murder) it should be for freedom, independence, sovereignty and nothing else.
My views are known by now (yes I consider my greater threat for now to be Hassan and Micho), but I do not think Jumblat’s speech was either appropriate or even called for. I have always complained about M14 having failed their mission and not having balls; but that is not the way to go. Why didn’t they ELECT a president instead and really showed some balls?
Bad Vilbel,
It was this sentence that threw me off.
“If anything, March 14 has waited far too long to show any teeth.”
I must have misunderstood your point.
Ya Augustus Glub!
Stop making excuses for Jumbo’s reckless (cheap) talk! It doesn’t matter what he means, as much as it doesn’t matter when certain rumors are true or not– the effect matters. The provocation. I’m comforted to see many of your M14 compatriots are really gung-ho about getting their war on though. I hate to be pushed to agree with anything Hezbollah says but yeah– you guys are going to get your little sectarian yuppy asses whooped. Remember– Fatah were trained and armed by the Yanks but when it came down to it, they didn’t stand a chance fighting Hamas in Ghaza. The same will go for Hariri’s Sunni Beiruti mercenaries.
Great, great!!!
Keep up the good work!
To WAR people! Burn this goddamned country to ashes! Exterminate the worse race off the face of the Earth!
If Lebanon dissapears tomorrow, humanity would have done a huge step forward.
TAC,
My point was that March14 has been bullied for about 3 years now without ever doing anything except turning the other cheek.
While I don’t necessarily advocate a civil war, I do wish M14 to be more assertive and stop being bullied around.
For starters, they could all go down to parliament and elect a president using 50+1 (which is entirely legal at this point, but that’s a whole other debate) instead of continuing to debate with the opposition about 10+10+10 and veto powers and consensus candidates.
Democracy is NOT about consensus. You vote, the winner wins. The loser waits until the next election.
That is why I wrote what I wrote.
This piece by Ghassan Karam pretty much sums up my point of view on this matter:
http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2008/02/defense_of_leba.php
Of course, I don’t expect the sheeple to even understand the basic precepts of “functional democracy” and “haelthy system” in Lebanon…Which is the sad side to this story.
bitdarrto kaz w bitnemo 3al 3atm.
http://beirutspring.com/blog/2008/02/13/imad-mugniyah-snuffed-an-analysis/#comment-50222