Monthly Archives: February 2008

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The Destroyers Are Coming

Like Hezbollah’s weapons, the American destroyers will not be used against the Lebanese people. But their mere presence will shift the strategic balance.

To many Lebanese, it will seem insane to compare American warships to Hezbollah’s weapons. After all, Hezbollah is a local resistance movement that is exclusively meant to fight Israel, while America is a trigger-happy foreign power that is trespassing our sovereignty to bomb our brains out. Right?

But who said anything about the US warships invading or bombing Lebanon? The USS Cole and the other ships coming soon to our neighborhood are just going to hang around. In fact, they’ll be so far we won’t be able to see them.

But that doesn’t mean they won’t make a difference. Lebanon is divided into two, roughly equal groups that are struggling for power. One is backed by Iran and Syria and the other is backed by the west and the rest of the Arab world. Hezbollah had an advantage: It possesses an Iranian arsenal that it’s using for leverage in internal politics. The pro-westerns were being outgunned, and their American allies have decided to fix the situation by lending them some deterrence of their own.

But isn’t it unpatriotic to use American guns against fellow Lebanese?

Not necessarily. Hezbollah’s weapons are from Iran, a persian country in south-west Asia. The party of God regularly promises that it won’t use them against fellow Lebanese, but their threat remains an undertone. Besides, can’t we say the same thing of the American warships? If they’re just going to sit there (being “in the vicinity” as the US chief of staff puts it), sooner or later everyone (except Hezbollah and their backers) is going to forget about them.

Now that the threat of mutual destruction is established, the two sides can hammer a deal out and hopefully progress can be made.

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The Boutros Election Law

The most progressive Lebanese electoral law proposal is gathering dust because none of the parties wants real change.

One of the most notable exchanges in yesterday’s stalemated quadripartite meeting is the one that took place between Mr. Hariri and Mr. Aoun over the adoption of the 1960′s electoral law.

According to Annahar, Mr. Hariri refused to use the law in future elections. He also said that he doesn’t mind people saying that he was against it because “a lot has changed since 1960.” Of course Mr. Aoun rushed to score political points since the pre-Taef 1960′s law, with its small districts, is seen as favorable to Christians.

Mr. Hariri is right, a lot has changed since 1960s. But neither he, nor Mr. Aoun cared to mention, let alone discuss its modern alternative, namely Mr. Fouad Boutros’ progressive proposal.

The law proposal which was commissioned in 2005 and released in May 2006 was revolutionary by Lebanese standards. It was a hybrid of winner-takes-all and proportional representation. It lowered the voting age to 18, allowed the diaspora to vote, proposed an independent electoral commission and included a quota for Women.

All this proved too much for our politicians who are dreading the wave of new voters (youngsters and the diaspora). In all their meetings to reach compromise, non of our esteemed leaders brought up Mr. Boutros’ law.

A cynic would think that they were all happy that the July War killed it before parliament had the chance to vote on it.

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Quote Of The Day

Here’s a great quote from March 14 leader Samir Geagea in reply to Sayyed Nassrallah’s finger-wagging.

If your Sayyed-ness believes that the majority of the Lebanese people, the Lebanese government, the majority of Arab states, the security council and the international community are all wrong, then perhaps that means that you are the one who’s wrong, Sayyed.

Mr. Geagea also challenged Sayyed Nassrallah to a public debate, as opposed to the Lebanese habit of preaching to the choir.

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Kuwait And Mughniya

The tiny gulf nation is finding itself at the heart of the Arab-Iranian cold war.

When Imad Mughniya was killed, there was a polite public consensus among Lebanese politicians to treat him as a heroic resister to Israel. The pro-western Lebanese media and Mr. Seniora spoke of him in relatively good terms (to the outrage of their grass root)

The trend seemed pan-Arab at first, but a Kuwaiti official came up on Al-Jazeera and blasted Mughniya in terms not even the Israelis have used. The Kuwaitis, it seems, believed that Mughniya was involved in past plane highjacking and bombings that targeted their country. The feeling runs so high in Kuwait that when two Kuwaiti Shiaa MPs joined a commemoration for Mughniya, the Kuwaiti establishment and its media were outraged.

If one adds Kuwait’s newspapers, which constantly break tabloid-style, often unsubstantiated stories against Syria, Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, one would understand the background against which the latest harassment of Kuwait and Kuwaitis is taking place in Lebanon.

Hezbollah supporters defiantly put a large graffiti of Mughniya on the wall of the Kuwaiti embassy in Beirut (see picture), while an “anonymous” caller threatened to blast it with two missiles.  At the same time, a high-ranking Iranian official accused “Arab Intelligence” of involvement in assassinating Mughniya.

Buckle up. This is going to be quite a ride.

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The 10-10-10 Rears Its Ugly Head Again

The opposition tries to portray the 10-10-10 formula as a compromise.

It happened in the last meeting between Messrs. Amro Moussa, Amine Gemayel, Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri, when a stalemate was reached. An angry Hariri decided to prove to the Arab League’s Secretary General that the opposition is stalling. So he looked into Mr. Aoun’s eyes and asked him: “Let’s suppose we do accept the 10-10-10 formula, would you then accept the immediate election of Mr. Sleiman?”

Mr. Aoun stumbled a bit then unleashed a series of new demands. He said that he wanted discussions on who the next Prime Minister should be. He brought up demands on filling high security ranks and ministerial positions, and then went back to insist on the blocking third.
Mr. Hariri rested his case.

Now, as Mr. Moussa gets ready to come back to Lebanon and re-host the quadripartite meeting, the opposition floated the 10-10-10 idea again. Mr. Berri, not a stranger to chutzpah, used the exchange above to suggest that Mr. Hariri had accepted the 10-10-10 proposition, and casually included in the package a string of unspecified ministerial arrangements where the Majority’s Christians would be significantly under-represented.

Rubbish! Mr. Hariri thundered to his Almustaqbal TV channel yesterday. The opposition is “distributing roles”, between a hardline Aoun who’s insisting on a blocking third, and a “made-in-Syria” proposition (10-10-10) floated by Mr. Berri. The formula, as regular readers to this blog know, is nonsensical.

Mr. Aoun is now saying that since the Majority won’t agree with the 10-10-10 formula, Mr. Moussa should not bother coming to Lebanon. The opposition, it seems, is in no hurry to untangle Lebanon.

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Al-Akhbar's Distorted Economics

The opposition’s newspaper will say anything to make Mr. Seniora look like a villain.

In addition to an article praising “comrade” Fidel Castro, Al-Akhbar headlines: “Seniora legitimizes smuggling from Syria”. In a nutshell, the editorialists are angry that Mr. Seniora has instructed the Lebanese Customs to allow a free inflow of basic goods like foods and combustibles from Syria.

The Lebanese consumers will now be better off since they will have access to cheaper food and cheaper oil. The only losers here are uncompetitive Lebanese farmers who should have long ago switched to produce where they have a competitive advantage.

Yet Al-Akhbar makes this strange argument:

??? ??????? ?????????? ????? ?? ??? ????? ??????? ???? ???? ??????? ???????? ????????? ???? ????????? ????? ?????? ????? ???????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ???????? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ????? ????? ???????? ???????? ?? ??????? ???????.

Translation: (mine)

Instead of subsidizing fuel and basic foods, the Lebanese government is exposing the citizens to volatile markets and price soaring. So those who now want basic consumer goods will now have to rely on subsidized products from Syria.

I can’t begin to count how many absurdities this statement contains (for example, if you’re exposing the Lebanese consumers to cheap Syrian goods, how does that translate that they will be exposed to “market prices?”). If the syrian government wants to subsidize their food products and hurt the competitiveness of our farmers, we might as well benefit from that and give our people access to their cheap food.

No matter what Mr. Seniora does, Al-Akhbar will find a way to spin it in a negative light.

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Important Event In New Zealand To Limit Cluster Bombs Usage

The use of deadly cluster bombs by the Israelis in south Lebanon will be at the heart of discussions in New Zealand today aimed at limiting the use of cluster bomb munitions.

Cluster bombs have an uncanny ability to target children (40% of victims are children). Cluster bombs are not “controversial“, they are wrong, plain and simple. They should be banned and the Lebanese should push hard for that. Here are some websites where you can take action:

• Cluster Munition Coalition, action page

• New Zealand Cluster Munition Coalition.

For more information, you can check these very useful links:

• Human Rights Watch report “Flooding South Lebanon: Israel’s Use of Cluster Munitions in Lebanon in July and August 2006

• Human Rights Watch’s work on cluster munitions

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U.S. Intelligence Chief: Hezbollah Or Syria Could Be Behind Mughniyeh's Killing

The American intelligence chief ads a bit of authority to “conspiracy theories” already making rounds:

More speculation?

The U.S. intelligence chief said Sunday that internal Hezbollah groups or Syria may be to blame for the killing of a Hezbollah commander that has led the FBI to put domestic terror squads on alert in the United States.

Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell said the United States is still reviewing the case following the death last Tuesday of commander Imad Mughniyeh. Hezbollah blamed Israel and has pledged to attack Jewish targets worldwide in retaliation. That led the FBI last week to be vigilant for possible threats in the U.S. against synagogues and other potential Jewish targets.