Was The M.O.U. Compromised?



Lebanese politics

Hezbollah and the FPM are rushing their Memorandum Of Understanding to intensive care.


Something else could be burning…

The peaceful Shiaa demonstrators came to the Christian neighborhood, started breaking stuff and cut off roads using burning tires. Depending on the version of the story you heard, they could also have shot in the air and threw a couple of grenades here and there.

The locals were enraged and some perhaps started shooting back using their good ol’ civil war M16s. “You don’t restore electricity in your neighborhoods by wreaking havoc in others” one female local told a TV reporter.

This can’t be good news to the FPM-Hezbollah’s political Memorandum Of Understanding (M.O.U), especially if all the damage took place next to the very church in which the memorandum was signed.

As Lebanese veteran commentator Sarkis Naoum asked this morning: “If Aoun and Hezbollah both believe that Aoun represents the majority of the Christians, then why did Hezbollah allow its supporters to tarnish the peace in a Christian neighborhood?”

If Mr. Naim Kassem, Hezbollah’s second in command, reads this post, he will likely “break my head” and that of Mr. Naoum, since that is what he threatened to do to those who dare “touch the M.O.U”. His ally, Mr. Aoun was equally defensive: “The People will not let go of the M.O.U between Hezbollah and the FPM”, announced a brave-faced M.P. from his block.

But for both Hezbollah and the FPM to be defending the M.O.U so vigorously, one would be excused to wonder if there’s any life left in that piece of paper.

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Discussion

No comments for “Was The M.O.U. Compromised?”

  1. M.O.U=MOOOOOOOOO

    Posted by Danny | January 29, 2008, 8:19 pm
  2. The MOU was a piece of toilet paper to start with, as Tony Bey at Across the Bay has pointed out (with much supporting analysis) for months now.

    It provides Hizbullah with its Christian cover and doesn’t offer Aoun any of the things he THINKS it offers him.

    Your post is dead-on, Mustapha. The latest events are yet one more nail in the MOU’s coffin and proof positive that it means absolutely NOTHING to Hizballah. Those who feel for this whole MOU crap (Aoun and his cohorts) have been used all along. The sooner the realize it, the better.

    Posted by Bad Vilbel | January 29, 2008, 9:55 pm
  3. Dear Mustapha,
    I enjoy reading your postings when I can. Living in the US, my attention to Lebanese daily events fades in and out. The last couple of days, I have browsed many sites, including yours. I am dismayed by the lack of even a hint of sympathy for fellow Lebanese who died on Sunday. This attitude permeates the “March 14″ leaning sites. From my vantage point, it just makes you come off as cold and callous. What is going on?

    fyi, an interesting article from al-hayat shares my viewpoint more or less:
    http://www.alhayat.com/special/features/01-2008/Item-20080128-c1c5d7ec-c0a8-10ed-01dd-6f82b5c37f11/story.html

    Regards.

    Posted by Ali K | January 29, 2008, 10:34 pm
  4. Used up toilet paper = MoU!
    Aoun is taking the christians and Lebanon yet again to the abyss… why cant someone just cut off his medicaiton and do us all a HUGE favor!!!!

    Posted by Dania | January 29, 2008, 10:36 pm
  5. One thing to note is the 3rd point on the arab league agenda: the new election law which everybody seems to agree on (the arabs, of course, threw democratic elections last).
    I think that lebanon should start with this before rushing and electing the next president that might be isolated the next day, cook a new governement that might fall the next day…
    Instead of the parliament convening to elect this president and the next government, why not signing the new election law, hold the elections, get a new parliament that will elect a new president of the republic, a new head of the parliament and a government that the new majority will set.
    It is a win win situation for everybody: the opposition will win this demand that they have been asking for for such a long time (they won’t say no to new parliament elections), and the present majority seems very likely to win it since they are convinced that aoun does not represent the majority of the christians anymore and that hezbollah will loose many christian seats in the south and the bekaa, and might probably loose some seats to independant shi3a strong in their villages but totaly erased from the equation because of the 2000 law.
    When in doubt, hold democratic elections!
    if the christians agree with the MOU, they will show it. if not, than it is truly a piece of toilet paper.
    I say go to the polls! and lets see what the majority of the lebanese want. Even if they want the package hezbollah/aoun/syria/iran, it will be their final choice and they will have to deal with the consequences (Gaza style).

    Posted by Krach | January 29, 2008, 11:03 pm
  6. AliK,

    Sympathy is for innocent bystanders who die when Hariri, Eido, Eid, etc are blown up (and for the targets of course).

    Those with half a brain know that nothing good is going to happen around burning tyres, street protests and army check points, especially in the current tense environment. You want to die for the glory of Nabih, or Hassan or Saad, be my guest.

    Furthermore, I don’t want anyone to die and the solution right now is to ban all protests, (and trust me announcing that protester will be shot will save lives.)

    Like we don’t know what each side believes? We need idiots in the streets to “express” what M8 and M14 believe?

    All of this crap (electricity and a thousand other things) ought to be debated in PARLIAMENT and these dead (RIP) are on their leaders heads.

    Posted by JoseyWales | January 29, 2008, 11:06 pm
  7. Ali,

    I won’t play the “but they never cared about our victims” card -Sawsan darwish springs to my mind- and I admit: You’re right.

    I surprise myself at how little sympathy I’m expressing (Although I’ll be lying if I said that I wasn’t moved by the mothers’ wailing and the whole pointlessness of their death).

    But don’t read too much into that. If you have been reading for a while, you’ll notice that sometimes coldness and detachment are part of my style.

    Posted by Mustapha | January 29, 2008, 11:09 pm
  8. I don’t think people are showing a lack of caring about the dead. Everytime someone gets blown up, the first thing people bring up is feeling bad for the innocent lives lost. But this is a forum where people are debating the politics behind that stuff (or lack thereof) and it’s a fairly limited medium of communication. Just because we’re busy refuting this or that point in a 5 line comment doesn’t mean we have no sentiment for innocent deaths.

    Having said that, I’d like to ask the M8 crowd where was there sentiment when Lebanese Army troops were slaughtered by Fath Al Islam, or when innocents lost their lives in the various car bomb assassinations, or during the Ain Alaq bombings, etc. Hell, I’d like to know why Naim Quassem (who’s quick to ask for an investigation into yesterday’s deaths) didn’t ask for an investigation in the riots that tore down Sassine square a couple of years ago, after Nassrallah was “mocked” on that TV show….

    Oh that’s right…I forgot…Double standards….

    Posted by Bad Vilbel | January 30, 2008, 1:16 am
  9. About the MOU. Aoun had to do it to get Hezbollah to back him, and Hezbo had to have the Christian cover. Most of Christians didn’t like it, but in the end they finally (secretly) began to believe that Hezbo would “save and protect” them. The whole “naturalize the Pals and the Sunni Wahhabi threat was part of the propaganda to reinforce these fears. There were some of course who actually believed in the Aoun rhetoric of anti-sectarianism but most of them are long gone and disillusioned. That’s all gone up in smoke. When Hezbo moved their latest riot into a Christian area and started destroying property, it was a giant wake-up call. Aoun has been bleeding support for a long time, he nicked a serious vein last January with the forced strike, but this time Hezbo cut an artery. He has no way out (if he were even interested in getting out) - if he tries to leave Hezbo, they will eliminate him, and I don’t mean politically.

    Krach - none of them are any too interested in a new electoral law (except for the Christian community) and most especially the opposition. Aoun believes that he will win with the Hezbo alliance so he does not care about a new law and Hezbo/Amal insisted on the old law - that’s why they used it. It will takes many months to hammer one out as it’s very controversial, and very complicated. Add to that - I still think it sets a very dangerous precedent to go to any early election. The election results must stand or what is the point in any election? I actually think it will take nearly the whole 15 months or so to pass a new electoral law and appoint new Judges to the Constitutional Council. Keep in mind - they could have gone back to Parliament anytime during this past year to work on a new electoral law IF that was a priority for them. They didn’t, because it’s not.

    Posted by Ace | January 30, 2008, 4:46 am
  10. Until today I Still ignore why Lebanese are not getting it! Although it is all clear and documented in sound and pics.
    General Sleiman is not trusted and is not fit to preside the country. It all started with Sleiman franjieh (the most honest) who honestly said that he is not trusted anymore. Why? because he clearly refused to give guarantees M8 were expecting, furthermore he refused to attend a luncheon with aoun and franjieh to discuss his election. On the other side Syria, honestly declared its unwillingness to back Sleiman since it is obvious to her that he moved to the other camp after a secret visit to Saudi Arabia to meet King Abdallah, hence, Sleiman has to be OUT! Mark my words, M8 will cowardly involve him in the turmoil he always said he will avoid. The last events are a perfecly staged drama to involve the army and its commander in chief. Today, Sleiman have promissed to Berri and Nasrallah that he will investigate and find the perpetrators after been given an ultimamtum by Nasrallah himself until Feb 1st. There are two Senarios; either the general delivers on time as promissed or fails to find exactly who committed the killings. In both cases, the general is dead politically. If he successfully finds out that some unsubordinated army men committed the carnage, voices from the opposition will demand his resignation and a monster demonstration will be carried in Beirut to demand his depature from power, his pictures will be carried with the name ASSASSIN on them, furthermore it will be said in all opposition media that half of the lebanese people don’t approve of this assassin to be elected president. If he fails to deliver results to HZB, the same senario will take place and this time they will chant”death to Sleiman”. This is the story my fellow Lebaneses, I am no fortune teller, it is the truth. The coming days will be witness to my story. If the above senario fails and does not happen, I promiss you that Sleiman got close but not quiet.

    Posted by dory | January 30, 2008, 5:45 am
  11. Get over it Ali, get over it. When Gebran, Hariri and Eido were assassinated, these falling mobs where celebrating and distributing Baklawa in the lovely neighborhood Dahié.

    I feel indifferent for the death of those young anarchist who have the potential to burn all my country. I blame their mother’s lack of eduction and the Persian money brain washing their minds.

    Posted by sam | January 30, 2008, 6:27 am
  12. I have to say that I share Sam’s sentiments exactly. Those thugs should have been home eating their Labneh sandwich in bed, getting ready for school the next day. Those whailing mothers should have been beating themselves up for not having educated their children (which they have by the dozen).
    Why is it Moustafa that this time you are putting all this attention to the fact that they crossed Shiah /Ain El Remmaneh border? This has been a regular occurance for a while now. Unlike what they want you to believe, most people in Ain El Remmaneh are armed and they have been for a long time (the only way for those residents to protect themselves, since in previous incidents the army never lifted a finger). I am not saying that they were on rooftops killing demonstartors in Shiah, I have my own theory on that.
    The fact that angry turban wearing thugs entered Ain El Remmaneh has no more significance than any other previous incident. Trust me when I say that all those followers of the Orange demented General are still blindly following unfortunately.
    I have stated my opinion clearely in other comment on your page Moustafa, but I think it went into your spam folder (I have been having problems with my IP I don’t know why)
    N.B: I was without electricity yesterday and was charged $810 for one ton of fuel, but I did not send my son out to burn tires, smach cars, and stone the army !

    Posted by marillionlb | January 30, 2008, 9:12 am
  13. Marillion, I’m not getting anything. Sorry for the inconvenience. Could you try as a test using a different combination of name and email address?

    Posted by Mustapha | January 30, 2008, 12:11 pm
  14. Hi folks,
    Interesting feedback to my earlier comment. In the end, people in Lebanon have to find a way to live side by side if not together. I believe this has to shape the debate. That’s where I’m coming from with my concern about callousness etc. Even at the height of the war, the vicious factions knew to pull their punches. Do continue the lively discussions. I will try to peek when I can.
    Cheers.

    Posted by Ali K | January 30, 2008, 1:26 pm
  15. This will all end when Iran gets an a** whipping

    soon enough…soon enough !!

    Posted by Andrew The American | January 30, 2008, 3:17 pm
  16. Dear Ali most lebanese are becoming retarded fanatic blind followers….so there is no use talking sense into them….
    First of all Mousse….You’d be surprised to know that not even a stone was thrown toward the part of Ein l Remmeneh or the Christian parts….
    And the grenade that exploded there exploded in the hand of the one who intended to throw it,and he’s from Ein L Remmeneh,and a Christian,and he is under investigation…..and most of the dead victims where ambulance drivers or medical support,not participating in the demonstration…..
    So with your biased,propagandist,and discrimative blog, most decent lebanese must break Sarkis Naoum ’s head….not yours of course coz you’re my brother in law and i care for you….hehehehe :P

    Posted by Ado | January 30, 2008, 5:29 pm
  17. Ado,

    And you have proof of any of your statements? No? Ok. Didn’t think so.

    Naharnet reports today that the investigations’ preliminary findings are that the gunfire came from Shiah, towards the army. And that the army returned fire. No proof of that either, mind you.

    Posted by Bad Vilbel | January 30, 2008, 6:29 pm
  18. looks like to me they were pasticiaipating in some civil disobedience. the Shia of lebanon have always been second class citizens like the blacks of america. Why does it just so happen the Shia have their electricity cut the most? Why is the country so afraid of new electoral laws? Is it becaue it would give the shia more power. Wouldnt that be a good thing? Look at the Mid-east today, Iran is bar none the strongest in the region with capapbililty to do as they please, Iraq is on its way back to normality with the shia reigning in finally and taking their rightful power. Both of these being Shia govts. Now look at lebanon we have no oil, no military not much of anything except beauty. The only thing lebanon has and gets respect for around the Arab and muslim world is defeating israel. Now think about it, if we could get past the status quo of trying to keep the shia down, Lebanon could benefit tremendously from it. Iran and Iraq both have tons of oil why not have a friendship even just for economic reasons, we could get oil below market price to power the country constantly none of this rationing crap like we live in africa or somethin. Secondly in terms of military, we could have militry cooperation, we need you saw what those terrorists did at the refugee camp this past summer. By strengthening our ties we would be able to eliminate these threats in a quick and timely manner not 6 weeks of fighting and many dead. Look at the whole picture. In lebanon there will always be Shia Sunni Christian country. But its time for everyone to put their money where there mouth is. Lebanon cannot survive with foreign involvement in all aspects. Im not saying whos wrong or right but look where we are.

    Posted by charlies | January 30, 2008, 7:32 pm
  19. Get over yourself, Charlie. No one is “trying to keep the Shia down”. The only side trying to keep the shia down is Hizballah, which has co-opted an entire community, and is constantly blackmailing the rest of the country with their “do as we say, or else…” attitude.

    You need a serious reality check.

    Posted by Bad Vilbel | January 30, 2008, 9:00 pm

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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.

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