The Mysterious Rooftop Snipers



News Analysis

Who are the “agents provocateurs” who shot and killed 9 Lebanese demonstrators yesterday?

The nature of the first victim says it all. Ahmad Hamza was the man appointed by the opposition’s AMAL movement to coordinate the demonstrations with the army, so that things remain in check. He was the first to be taken down. It is obvious that those pulling the trigger knew what they were doing. But who are they?

It didn’t take long before the usual blame game began. March 14 promptly accused Syria and Iran, and March 8 pointed their fingers (and media) at March 14. But something is missing.

The opposition was dancing around the brink for a while, but it has always been careful not let this descend into an all-out confrontation with the army. But then again, weren’t they the ones who chose the symbolic venue of the confrontations, which eerily mark the fault lines of the Lebanese civil war? Weren’t they who chose the timing to coincide with the Arab League’s meeting about the Lebanese Crisis? Weren’t they who were warning of “decisive action in the streets?”

Moreover, how could have March 14 guessed where the demonstrations will take place and carefully planned faultless sniper attacks without being uncovered? On the other hand, how could have the FPM, a party rooted in the army, condoned a confrontation between the opposition and the army?

The puzzle has a missing piece. It seems that a third party wants to stir things up by breaking the balance of restraint between the Lebanese parties. As political analyst Ossama Safa puts it: “This is the work of agents provocateurs — someone is in there stirring trouble [..] I really think they want to get a hold of the situation. But someone, somewhere is doing this.”

The politicians will try to calm the situation. But expect a lot hot-headed blame to be tossed around.

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Discussion

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  1.  

    Dear Friends,
    I was in Lebanon during the early years of the civil war (1975-76) and I still recall how every time there was a real attempt to have a cease fire, snipers will shoot at both sides!!! Once, I heard canon being shot at both sides from the same location. Al-Sa3eqa (the Syrian dominated Palestinian militia) used to drive along the “front line” and start shooting every time we reach a cease fire. I will doubt that the Syrians (or someone getting paid by them) are there doing what they have in the 1975-76. The killing of Hamza shows that they know what they are doing. The goal is to aggravate the people and they get emotional and angry to start chaos and probably civil war. What a coincidence that when the meeting in Cairo was not in favor of the Syrians, the demonstration started! The so-called snipers on the rooftops don’t look to me other than people watching what is going on. Snipers don’t standup to be seen (trust me on that)!

    Posted by Ghassan | January 28, 2008, 12:24 pm

  2.  

    M-

    How about this:

    1 – It was the Mossad. The Israelis are trying to sow discord among the Lebanese. This fits in with the “All recent violence is the Israelis’ doing & based on their ‘divide et impera’ strategy” theory.

    2 – It was Sunnis who just hate Shi’a.

    2 – It was Sunnis who sneaked up on roofs to shoot at people and make them attack the Army so the Army would start hating the Shi’a.

    3 – It was LFers who just hate Shi’a.

    4 – It was LFers who sneaked up on roofs to shoot at people and make them attack the Army so the Army would start hating the Shi’a.

    5 – It was Aounis who wanted to make Shias think that the Army attacked them and thus radicalize them even more.

    6 – It was Amal people who wanted to make Shias think that the Army attacked them and thus radicalize them even more.

    7 – It was Hizbullah people who wanted to make Shias think that the Army attacked them and thus radicalize them even more.

    8 – It was Syrian mukhabarat who want to stir up the flames in Lebanon, in accord with their “divide et impera” strategy.

    9 – It was Islamist radicals who did not like any reconciliation with the Army & shot the Amal negotiator, leading to a general shoot-out.

    10 – It was just some dumb coincidence whereby a guy who wanted to shoot in the air was too dumb to do so & inadvertently shot the Amal leader, leading to a general shoot-out in which everyone shot at whatever they perceived to be “bad guys”.

    As the saying goes “Friendly fire … ISN’T.”

    Cheers,

    –MSK*

    Posted by MSK | January 28, 2008, 12:29 pm

  3.  

    Correction to previous post.
    Dear Friends,
    I was in Lebanon during the early years of the civil war (1975-76) and I still recall how every time there was a real attempt to have a cease fire, snipers will shoot at both sides!!! Once, I heard canon being shot at both sides from the same location. Al-Sa3eqa (the Syrian dominated Palestinian militia) used to drive along the “front line” and start shooting every time we reach a cease fire. I will not doubt that the Syrians (or someone getting paid by them) are there doing what they have done in the 1975-76. The killing of Hamza shows that they know what they are doing. The goal is to aggravate the people and they get emotional and angry to start chaos and probably civil war. What a coincidence that when the meeting in Cairo was not in favor of the Syrians, the demonstration started! The so-called snipers on the rooftops don’t look to me other than people watching what is going on. Snipers don’t standup to be seen (trust me on that)!

    Posted by Ghassan | January 28, 2008, 12:29 pm

  4.  

    The sniping and shooting kept going on for more than two hours without the army stoping it or catching the ones doing it,while most tv stations where brodcasting it……
    At least this terrorist act must be cleared to people,whoever did it,hezb,lf,fpm or god himself…..and stop keeping every terrorist act a mistery…..this one was easy to catch the makers….

    Posted by Ado | January 28, 2008, 1:42 pm

  5.  

    Lebanon can rot in the farthest reaches of hell for all I care. Its people have shown time and again that they are not ready or willing to grow up. Makes me glad I’ve left the country and do not intend to ever return. Good for you, idiots, keep killing each other, pointing fingers, and enjoying your conspiracy theories. Darwinism at its best…

    Posted by Bad Vilbel | January 28, 2008, 5:55 pm

  6.  

    [...] This Blog Only   « Previous Post   Monday, January 28, 2008 [...]

    Posted by The Beirut Spring, a Lebanese Blog » Hezbollah Channeling Anger Towards Army | January 28, 2008, 7:15 pm

  7.  

    BV, please spare us, if you’re so hopeless and removed from this situation then what the hell are you doing hanging around these blogs and preaching this crap. If you live abroad and gave up on Lebanon and the Lebanese then GET A LIFE and move on…

    Posted by Joe | January 28, 2008, 7:40 pm

  8.  

    [...] Lebanese bloggers are weighing in offering analysis and mostly bemoaning what appears to be the powerlessness of the government to stop the murders. Mustapha at Beirut Spring offers some speculation about the rooftop snipers: [...]

    Posted by Right Wing Nut House » BEIRUT RIOT KILLS 8, WOUNDS 19 | January 28, 2008, 7:50 pm

  9.  

    Joe,

    heh.

    Posted by Bad Vilbel | January 28, 2008, 8:48 pm

  10.  

    [...] Beirut Spring sees a third party, other than the demonstrators and the army, acting as “agents porvocateurs” to stir unrest and strife: The nature of the first victim says it all. Ahmad Hamza was the man appointed by the opposition’s AMAL movement to coordinate the demonstrations with the army, so that things remain in check. He was the first to be taken down. It is obvious that those pulling the trigger knew what they were doing. But who are they? [...]

    Posted by Global Voices Online » Lebanon: Demonstrations, Deaths and Specter of Civil War | January 28, 2008, 9:12 pm

  11.  

    Mustafa,
    People died and you are preoccupied by analysing and suggesting that the riots’ place was chosen to provoke all this? People died and I personally feel you do not really care for their death. Instead it seems like you are justifying it… As if hatred makes some people’s lifes worthless.. Please, let us all calm down for a moment and remember we are all generous lebanese, we dance on the same music, we read the same books, we eat the same cuisine, we have the same sense of humor … and we are all cry when our beloved ones die.

    Posted by lifes | January 28, 2008, 10:40 pm

  12.  

    It is not the first time that somebody shoots on demonstration in Lebanon.
    I think someone is trying to send a message:
    - If you come near our neighborhood, we will not hesitate to open fire.

    In this way Samir Geagea is trying to convince Christians that he is capable of defending their territory. His repeating speech uncovered him.

    The territory thinking was very obvious in this article: “weren’t they the ones who chose the symbolic venue of the confrontations, which eerily mark the fault lines of the Lebanese civil war?..,”.

    It is not a third party who is playing with fire. Stop blaming the other on all your faults. Those who did the shooting are Lebanese and are doing it for their own choice and not influenced by anyone else.

    Posted by Reader | January 31, 2008, 5:21 pm

Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.

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