Daily Archives: January 28, 2008

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Hezbollah Channeling Anger Towards Army

Hezbollah’s wing of the opposition is blaming the army for yesterday’s events…For political reasons.


It’s all your fault General Sleiman! (Reuters)

In an angry voice, Hezbollah MP. Ali Ammar told an Almanar talk show that “the blood of the people of the south and of Dahieh cannot be used as a stepping stone by those aspiring to high positions”. Not a very veiled jab at Mr. Suleiman, the army’s head and supposedly consensus presidential nominee.

Hezbollah and Syrian media are blaming the army, not the snipers for yesterday’s deaths. Their allies at the FPM had blamed the rooftop snipers, whose footage was seemingly captured by OTV.

Call me cynical but this seems all too convenient for Syria, who not long ago made it known that it no longer wants Mr. Sleiman for the presidency (and according to today’s Albalad newspaper, proposed Jean Obeid and Fares Boueiz as alternatives). Calling Mr. Sleiman responsible for the deaths yesterday is just the poison his candidacy needed. Hezbollah, it appears, will be glad to administer it.

Hezbollah’s supporters have always secretly disliked the army and saw it as a wussy competitor to Hezbollah that couldn’t defend them if Israel were to invade again. Hezbollah supporters were the ones who sheered least when the army emerged victorious from the Naher El Bared confrontations.

Does Mr. Sleiman still have a chance at the presidency?

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The Mysterious Rooftop Snipers

Who are the “agents provocateurs” who shot and killed 9 Lebanese demonstrators yesterday?

The nature of the first victim says it all. Ahmad Hamza was the man appointed by the opposition’s AMAL movement to coordinate the demonstrations with the army, so that things remain in check. He was the first to be taken down. It is obvious that those pulling the trigger knew what they were doing. But who are they?

It didn’t take long before the usual blame game began. March 14 promptly accused Syria and Iran, and March 8 pointed their fingers (and media) at March 14. But something is missing.

The opposition was dancing around the brink for a while, but it has always been careful not let this descend into an all-out confrontation with the army. But then again, weren’t they the ones who chose the symbolic venue of the confrontations, which eerily mark the fault lines of the Lebanese civil war? Weren’t they who chose the timing to coincide with the Arab League’s meeting about the Lebanese Crisis? Weren’t they who were warning of “decisive action in the streets?”

Moreover, how could have March 14 guessed where the demonstrations will take place and carefully planned faultless sniper attacks without being uncovered? On the other hand, how could have the FPM, a party rooted in the army, condoned a confrontation between the opposition and the army?

The puzzle has a missing piece. It seems that a third party wants to stir things up by breaking the balance of restraint between the Lebanese parties. As political analyst Ossama Safa puts it: “This is the work of agents provocateurs — someone is in there stirring trouble [..] I really think they want to get a hold of the situation. But someone, somewhere is doing this.”

The politicians will try to calm the situation. But expect a lot hot-headed blame to be tossed around.