Thanks for the contribution LP,

Concerning your post. What about other scenarios? Federalism for example or “peaceful confrontation” as M14’s Carlos eddeh suggested?

tsk tsk tsk…

I am with… and that… I stand for this, Lebanon, Love, Peace beauty… Abstract words!

All Rubbish! Go Read Alfred Korzybski’s “Une Carte n’est pas une territoire”

Preface: http://www.lyber-eclat.net/lyber/korzybski/preface_editeur.html

Where I stand? Who Cares… I would stand in the way of any internal fighting.

This is an excellent post! Indeed where are we going and is that what the leb ppl have become? Sadly, they’ve always been like this and today they get to express it without any consideration,as if they are somewhow liberated of their reserves or good taste. Its good to let it out in the open, so ling it’s done in the purpose of reaching an agreement and a solution suitable for all parties. Yet, it seems this “heart to heart” is dragging on endlessly just to spite and in a blatant grip over one’s sectarian affiliation at the expense of all national/patriotic sentiment. The leb ppl are the ones responsible for all thats happening, after all those leaders we’re cursed with didnt land from Mars. True regional powers have played the local rifts to their benefit. But if we are to look at this state of idiocy to the point of self-hypnosis the lebanese are in(namely m8 crowds), we wont wonder anymore how can for ex. orangies claim to fight for christian rights and at the same time relinquish further prerogatives in gvt? Thats just one example of how stupid and blind lebanese are! I fear we’re going to war and if thats the case am sorry to say I honestly wish it spreads to syria,iran and israel so they may get a taste of their own medicine.

One possible option given the continental divide between the two camps is partitioning. I think it’s time this idea is seriously considered given how polary diverse, not just politically but socially, and to a certain extent culturally, both sides are.

As far as I am concerned whenever I drove (not by choice but by necessity, like on the way to the airport), through Shiite neighborbods, the ever present reminders of HA militia and Iranian influences to say the least, never resembles the Lebanon I think any rational Lebanese aspires for!

Jay, spot on. I had spent most of my childhood (up to 1974) in what I call now Iranland, and no it is not the Dahiyeh it is Zoukak al Blat. every time I cross the ring (yes even hamra street) I feel like I should apply for a visa before entering.
But I am not willing to give it up. I will not give the Hizb, the Iztaz, or the Kawmi the pleasure to sleep soundly in the knowledge that this piece of land has now become theirs.

I do not support 14 feb because:
*Most of its leaders where puppets in the time of the Syrian occupation to Lebanon,and built their wealth and power with the Syrian assholes…
*The other leaders of this movement are either war criminals(Geagea,Jumblat….)or stupid stooges who don’t represent shit but a name they inherited (Dory Chamoun,CarlASS Edde)
*Most of their decisions are unconstitutional(leading an no democratic election with the slogan “who don’t vote for us is the Hariri killer”,cancelling the Constitutional court….)
* They are puppets to the americain regime,the same one that gave the Syrians control over Lebanon
*I cannot the Lebanese Forces,Jame3a Islemieh,Jumblat,and the Futire Movement armed forces entity in Lebanon…
*Feb 14 are Tools for U.S.A and Israel

I do not support march 8 because:
*I am against the Syrian regime
*I am against Hizbollah’s ideology
*I am against crooks like Berri,Wihab and Kandil
*I’m against the war criminals like Berri,Kawmieh,Baathists…

I BELIEVE IN A FREE DEMOCRATIC SOVEREIGN LEBANON,free of Hariris,Berris,Jumblats,Geageas,Kansos,Muftis,Patriarches,Murrs,Lahhouds…and all the other assholes who destroy their country…..

So, there is a minimal agreement among many on this blog; the consensus relates to a refusal of Hezb’O sectarian ideology…

And herein lies the problem; in the present context, Nasrallah and his followers are unavoidable to anyone who wants to rule. Or at least manage things. This will ensure that:

1- All “secular” political parties have to deal with Hezb’O,

2- They will loose whatever secular support they have by doing so.

No wonder that, while the Lebanese agree on the key issues, they remain stuck in this zero-sum sectarian game.

Ado, I’d say your attitude is part of the problem. You hate all the “sides”. Nothing is realistically going to get done that way, except a spiral into anarchy. When the shit hits the fan and your back is against the wall, you’ll simply support your own personal confessional or tribal faction, and Lebanon will be back to square one. You have to choose a productive side and see it through to some semblance of the next step. It’s a democracy, you’re not married to them forever, once they accomplish something but start to stray, you can *vote them out*. *Nothing* is *forever* in a democracy, unlike the present factional division in Lebanon. I agree letting go of blind allegiances is important, but after that you have to choose something productive. Perhaps one side has your interests slightly more in mind than the other.

Ado:

“…american regime,the same one…”

Dictatorial regimes are frequently both long-lived and often consistent (the same or very similar)from father to son; American politics is an ever-changing process backed by a Constitution. An American President may serve no more than two four-year elected terms. Compare that to your Syrian neighbor.

Ado, it’s bemusing that you blasted every political leader with the exception of Aoun! Was it inadvertently omitted or you just think his ’special’ ;)

Lewis, i have a position toward the Lebanese politics,i’m on the opposition side…but i don’t agree with them blindly like all stupid 14 feb supporters do….”zay ma hieh” like sheep…such a shame….at least i get to chose…i vote in akkar,and no way i will ever vote for Baarini,Yahya and all the other creeps just because they lable themselves opposition…and they simply are the remains of the rotten syrian regime(as Hadi Hbeish,Mostapha Hashem and the other 14ers creeps where)…and when the opposition take a wrong decision i critisize it….
And as for when the shit hits the fan i’ll support my own confessional or tribal faction,here again you’re totally wtong…coz all my family I MEAN ALL the close and the far family are pro Future Movement,and as you can see i am not….and i’m a sunni on my id card but i’m an athiest…and won’t ever believe a world that crook called mufti says,nor that mafioso hariri,or the other shithead karame….i have a mind to think and a the total freedom to choose what i believe is right for my beloved country….
As for Jas,well the U.s.a where never impartial when it comes to supporting Israel wether right or wrong,no matter who’s the president,plus they support all the dictatorial regims in the middel east,Saudi,Egyptian,Jordanian,Syrian…and it’s them who created Saddam Hussein and Ossama Bin Laden….

“Three possible scenarios might emerge:”

* Status Quo
* Civil war
* Regional war

The Status Quo is a “cold war”, and it’s actually been a cease fire from the Civil War. These issues have never been resolved, and in the meantime a new “power” essentially took over Lebanon - Hezbollah. It is estimated that they control about 50% of Lebanon now.

Civil War? unlikely unless they can convince the Christians to go after each other again (Aoun’s job). I think it’s likely you may see more escalation, unrest, more bombings, street battles, strikes, gang wars and of course an economy on a downward spiral until the people are ready to accept “anything” to make it better.
The only “anything” that will be an option to stop it will be the Hezbollah takeover. I don’t think you are really looking at Syria coming back to Lebanon ….. I think you are looking at Iran circa 1979 with Hezbollah in charge of Lebanon.

Regional War - this is certainly an option, and I think it was more serious a couple of months ago than it is today - I base that not only on the Hezbollah “buzz”, but on the Israeli strike in Syria. I think that shook the “axis” up a bit. I think the Gaza takeover was the first strike with a planned strike by Syria & Hezbollah to bring “regional” change.

Too many players and too many agendas …. it’s a mistake to think that Iran & Syria both want the same thing, and Nasrallah is dancing on a tightrope between the two. He really needs to establish himself as the political leader in Lebanon before the Iranian money dries up. Rumours are that Iran is investing over a Billion in Lebanon this year (up from 600 million), couple that with the unusual drug bust that just occurred (and the money it would have brought to Hezbo), and let’s throw in the constant “rumors/reports” of a Hezbollah shake-up, and I think it’s clear that something is happening, and it’s big.

When all else fails - follow the money, and Iran is the paymaster here for all of them. Iran does not another Sunni/Shia war but a Christian/Christian war suits them fine and helps a lot. Iran wants an Islamic state and they want the border with Israel to hold over the world. Syria believes Lebanon “belongs” to them, and needs her for it’s own economy AND to stop the Tribunal, which is OK with Iran. IF Hezbo controls Lebanon, then the financial burden on Iran is relieved somewhat and it’s fine with them if Syria takes their cut. None of it looks very promising for Lebanon, and I also think this is one of the reasons that M14 is afraid to make a move. In the end - it’s all going to be up to the people. They have to see what’s coming before it’s all a done deal. I guarantee you that the Iranians did not know what they were signing on for when the Ayatollahs were given control - by the time they found out, it was too late.

Hard to say what M14 should do - I think the real decision maker here is Sfeir because if he can give M14 the cover to elect a President then M8 is pretty much stopped in their tracks. Will he? Probably not. One thing M8 has correct - this guy is 90 years old with too much history under his belt (inner Christian wars & fear of Muslims against Christians) to make a hard decision. Too late for him to retire now ….. they will all have to play the cards they are dealt.

My opinion only of course.

Mustapha,

thanks for posting my opinion. I wish Federalism can happen. But I do no see that is a possibility unfortunately.

The two sides are not willing to co-exist.

LP

LP - the biggest problem with Federalism is the division itself. How will you (or anyone) else do that? It is Hezbollah’s nature to think that anyone who does not agree with them is an enemy - what will that mean? Will there be battles between these Federal states? They can’t decide on who should be what Minister so who are they ever going to decide on how to ‘divide’ Lebanon. It won’t work.

I agree with you Ace.. For that reason I said I cannot see that possible.

HizbIran is the biggest problem in Lebanon if not the only problem. If they agree to be just political, then everything will be solved. So far, his weapons and his threatening messages can only bring either civil war or chaos.

I live in Canada as I mentioned in my post. We have both right and left wings in the political arena. Believe me, they do not like each others and they have different agendas. But the rules of engagement are clear:
1-Canada is first
2-The winner in the election will govern.
3-The looser will be the opposition in the parliament.
4-No streets action
5-No war
6-No divine victory..

You get my point????