Hold The Fireworks
As the haggling in the next few days will show, the Arab League’s initiative is far from a done deal.
The Lebanese are not famous for their cautious optimism. We like to let it all out. Just look at the jump at the Beirut Stock Exchange and you’ll realize that we are betting our money on good times to come.
The cause for that optimism is the Arab League’s plan to fix the Lebanese political crisis. Forget the league’s abysmal record or the fact that it comes at the heels of many failed international efforts. This time, we tell ourselves, the progress is real.
The Arabs managed to twist the arms of Syria, one of the backers of the opposition in Lebanon, by threatening to boycott the Arab summit in Damascus next March. This is why Damascus agreed (fingers crossed) on a formula of “no winners, no losers” that includes the unconditional election of General Michel Suleiman. The spirit of the solution is that none of the parties gets to have a decisive voting power.
Many Lebanese politicians including the Speaker Nabih Berri immediately praised the plan as workable. But before we take that deep breath of relief, we have to keep an eye on two potential deal busters, one internal and the other external.
The internal potentially fatal hurdle is the composition of the next government. If I were in the opposition, I’d feel sold out by Syria, as the 14-6-10 interpretation -the Majority’s, the President’s and the opposition’s shares respectively- looks eerily similar to March 14’s original plan previously dismissed by March 8.
The solution also lacks face-saving exits for Mr. Aoun and for Hezbollah. The FPM’s leader was told that he was negotiating on behalf of the opposition but the Arab solution bypassed him altogether. Hezbollah had announced that the veto-wielding third was their “constitutional rights” and that they will never ever let go of it. They were denied it.
That explains the hardline interpretations of the Plan by Mr. Aoun (14 for the Majority, 10 for the Opposition and 6 for the President) and by Hezbollah (10, 10, 10) who are both waiting for Mr. Moussa’s arrival to negotiate better terms. Mr. Aoun is even calling for a “compromise Prime Minister”, and Hezbollah is insisting on “true partnership”, code speak for a veto-wielding third. Both demands are against the spirit of the Arab League’s offering.
The external threat to the proposal comes from Iran. The Persians weren’t too comfortable with the sight of Arabs ganging up on their Syrian ally and twisting its arm. Moreover, In Iran’s eyes, the deal was rushed at a suspicious timing. The upcoming American President’s visit to the region is widely seen as a coalition-building effort against Iran.
The Arab league’s effort is the most comprehensive attempt yet to solve the Lebanese political crisis. But that doesn’t necessarily make it good enough. The Lebanese should learn the ways of cautious optimism.
Do you like this post? Would you like to be always updated with new posts on this website? If so, please subscribe to this blog's RSS feed? (tell me more)Share This Post:
Print it: 
Email it: 
-->
Discussion
No comments for “Hold The Fireworks”
Post a comment
Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
Rss
Latest Posts
More From the Beirutspring network
Lebanese Bloggers
Middle Eastern Bloggers
Today In Lebanon (NOW)
Naharnet RSS Feed
Yalibnan RSS Feed
Latest Lebanese News
RSS Subscribers
Blog Featured In
Categories
Most Emailed
- Kudos To You Mr. President - 2 emails
- Lebanese Bloggers Not Happy With Kuntar Celebrations - 1 emails
- Having It Both Ways.. Literally - 1 emails
- The PR Battle Over Samir Kuntar - 1 emails
- Lebanese Women Will Love Minister Ibrahim Najjar - 1 emails
My friend,we had no celebratory fireworks!! After all this is the AL and Syria. Dis you guys really think Bashaar suddenly changed his mind without handouts? WHY??
If you answer the question correctly then you win the biggest jackpot in the history of Vegas!!!
Nothing’s changed. Syria is maneuvering to make sure the AL summit does not collapse!!
Syria’s response to the Arab League:
http://14march.org/index.php?page=nd&nid=30315
انفجار شمال صيدا استهدف آلية لقوات
الطوارىء الدولية وانباء عن اصابات
Man… How can they believe Syria’s promises?
The only way to deal with such a regime is by force….
I’ll be surprised if anything comes out of this deal. It’d be a first for the Arab League, known for its solid track record of failure.
This wait-and-see is killing us. Also, there are too many “spokespeople” for the M14 and M8 which is diluting their collective power and making this a very complicated situation:
M14 spokespeople: Gemayel, Hariri, Seniora, Geagea, Jumblatt, Batrak, etc.
M8: Hezb, Berri, Aoun. (recently Franjieh is re-emerging due to Syria’s rise)
What if each had 1 spokesperson only for e.g.? That would help.
If M14 started by apointing a SINGLE spokesperson, and asked for M8 to do same, that might be a breakthrough and might challenge M8 to agree with each other, which might be difficult.
And just as expected, today comes Syria’s REAL response to the AL initiative:
- An attack on UNIFIL
- Rockets into Israel
- A new audio tape from Fath Al Islam.
Those who were being optimistic really need to take a look back at the track record of these initiatives. How many times will it take before people learn? I’m constantly amazed at how some people continue making the same mistakes, day after day, and yet expecting different results everytime. There’s a saying about madness, right?
BV,
Watching too much Obama stump speeches? :)
BV
Exactly…
I had this comment @ Tony:
“Amr Mousa is the most irrelevant person in Middle East.People should not put too much into anything coming out of AL. Syria’s posturing to make sure they do not get the March meet cancelled.
As stated above by BV. read Syrian answer: FAI, Rockets, bombs…
Today: Karami, Wahab, Samaha…
Tomorrow: a few more explosions, franjieh, Orangebutt, Arslan, Qandeel..
Any Questions???
[...] In the Christian Science Monitor, Nicholas Blanford discusses the ongoing efforts of the Arab League to help resolve the political crisis in Lebanon. Arab ministers agreed in Cairo on Saturday to the following two actions: the immediate passage of a constitutional amendment to allow Michel Suleiman to become President and the formation of national unity government. On his blog, Joshua Landis describes the Arab League proposal as giving ”the Maronite president more power than he has had since the Taif Agreement of 1989 empowered the Sunni Prime Minister at the expense of the Maronites.” While Landis highlights that Syria’s compromise will be utilized to cultivate a friendly relationship with the Lebanese Christian community, Mustapha at Beirut Spring urges caution on the deal, citing the external threat of Iran’s influence. [...]
WOW!
What an ingenious ‘coup de theatre’. The Syrian diplomacy deserve a standing ovation.
Allow me to quote Niccolo Machiavelli: “The promises given were a necessitiy of the past the words broken are a necessity of the present”.
The arab initiative-mark my words- is doomed to failure. The arabs are going to be deceived unfortunately, the arab league is a fertile ground to all ingenious methods of maneuver from the Syrian side. The Syrians feel they have the upper hand, no arab state including Saudi Arabia and Egypt is willing to pressure Syria or to isolate it further. Many reasons ar holding the Arabs back, the most obvious is that Syria is capable of instigating a wide Sunni-chiite confrontation that will most probably put the monarchs to their knees. The Europeans, France in particular is offering nothing but reinstating diplomatic relations in return of a transparent conduct rom the Syrian regime-lack of efficient diplomacy- the US is like an injured bear who cannot resort to attack strategies anymore. The International Tribunal-the core issue of the impasse-IS THE DEAL-BREAKER. Is the unjured bear ready to negociate on the Hariris’fate and on the truth lebanon is so eager to learn. Again I will end my comment with a quote from my favorite Niccolo Machiavelli:”Politics have no relations to Morals”.