Here’s a summary of the theories making the rounds in Beirut concerning the killing of General François Hajj.

Theory 1: The thugs in Damascus

Who killed him: The Syrian Regime
Why they did it: Because they want to keep the Lebanese executive authority paralyzed for trouble-free maneuvering and because they’re threatening Mr. Suleiman with a similar fate if he dares to challenge them.
Why it’s plausible: The Syrian Vice President said only yesterday that no one could beat Syria in Lebanon. Also, Syria has a history of meddling in Lebanese affairs.
Who believes this theory: The pro-independence March 14 movement and many independents.
Why the theory could be in doubt: The victim was ideologically close to Syria’s allies.

Theory 2: The dastardly Zionists and Americans

Who killed him: Secret American and Israeli agents
Why they did it: They are intervening through terrorism, as they usually do, to save the March 14 group from a politically weak position. They are also ridding the Army of a potential anti-Israeli leader
Why it’s plausible: The sophistication of the attack and the scale of the security breach can only be executed by very resourceful agencies.
Who believes this theory: Amal, Hezbollah and some Aounists
Why the theory could be in doubt: such a move by the Americans is very risky to their March 14 allies and could cause an enormous backlash if uncovered.

Theory 3: Al-Quaeda Terrorists

Who killed him: Hardline Islamists
Why they did it: They want to revenge Mr. Hajj’s successful military campaign against their diabolical schemes in the Naher Al Bared camp in the north.
Why it’s plausible: Only a suicidal freak can ram an explosive car in a General’s car in the heart of the Army’s security zone.
Who believes this theory: Politicians might end up adopting this theory because it’s the most convenient and the most face-saving.
Why the theory could be in doubt: for such a major “success”, you’d think Al-Quaeda’s leadership would jump in to claim it. That didn’t happen yet.

Honorary mention, Theory 3.5: The Evil Saniora

Who killed him: Fouad Seniora’s negligence
Why he did it: To undermine the Christians and monopolize power.
Why it’s plausible: It’s always Seniora’s fault
Who believes this theory: Michel Aoun
Why the theory could be in doubt: …

As usual, today’s Beirut bombing carries many layers of symbolism.

(photo: Mohamed Azakir / Reuters , via the New York Times)

It is too early and information is still coming out of the bombing site, but here is what’s essential to know:

• The target, Brig. General François el Hajj was set to become the Army’s head if Mr. Suleiman was to become President.

• The killing took place in Baabda, where the presidential palace is located.

• The bomb exploded at the same date of Gebran Tueni’s assassination.

• The Army is one of the most trusted institutions in the country and was entrusted with civil peace.

• The bombing happened a day after another bomb that targeted the symbolic area of Ain Al Rimmaneh , where the Lebanese civil war started.

• While a common way to assassinate politicians, this is the first time an Army figure gets bombed this way.

• Brig. General Hajj holds a sensitive security position and his killing points to a serious security breach by non-amateurs

• The victim was one of the main architects of the Army’s assault on the Naher Al Bared camp.

• The bombing took place one day after the Syrian Vice President said that “Syria is the strongest ever in Lebanon today”

Many readings can be drawn from this attack. Was it designed to provoke the Army to over-react to provoke a backlash? Was it targeting civil peace to consolidate Syrian influence ? Was it a revenge killing for Naher Al Bared? Was it a personal threat to Mr. Suleiman?

It’s too early to know, this is why I would like to have your take on this. But let’s consider this provocative fact: Mr. Hage was said to be ideologically close to the opposition. Any takes?

Related Beirut Spring posts:

• I wrote a few weeks ago that the Army leader was very popular in Lebanon • A few months before, I wrote about the Army’s victory in Naher Al Bared and the popular support that entailed from the Lebanese.