Monthly Archives: December 2007

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Best Of 2007

With this compliation of the best Beirut Spring posts of the year 2007, I hope you all have a good 2008. Most importantly though, don’t forget to forget Lebanese politics and enjoy the party tonight. Maybe even email me pictures of your celebrations?

(Note: This is the year I moved from blogspot and made a redesign, so excuse me if some of the archive articles have missing comments or photos, and sorry for some other little quirks.)

January:

• Mr. Michel Aoun’s photoshop skills exposed.

Februrary:

• The Black Panthers of Taree2 el Jdeede
• Hezbollah’s Jihad Al Bina’ targeted
• The Hariri-Geagea-Jumblat Alliance is here to stay

March:

• Terror at Lebanese campuses
• Endorsing Nicolas Sarkozy
• Beirut dies but the partying in Batroun lives on.
• Is the FPM declining?

April:

• Can the Lebanese reduce the mobile phone rates?
• The killing of Ziad & Ziad
• Loans for bosoms
• Hezbollah cheating on their exams?

May (The Nahrel Bared Month)

• Nassrallah warns the Army not to interfere in Nahr el Bared
• The Lebanese are turning Aljazeera off •Mr. Jumblat explains why.
• Opinion: The Army should be tough in Naher el baled.
• Early skepticism. Does the Army have a plan?
• Meanwhile, the bombs go on: Verdun , Aley

June

• An Intifada against the Lebanese Army
• Murr’s embarrassing “Mission accomplished” moment
• The Sawsan Darwish Affair
• “Lebanese September 11″ foiled.

July

• In Lebanon, sex and security sell. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3
• Global warming kills 15 Syrian soldiers, wounds 50
• Still fighting in Nahrel Bared
• An Israeli blogger in Beirut.
• Debate in Canada about Lebanese Canadians
• The July war, one year on.
• Politics and paranoia

August

• Insulting the Prophet
• Rabih Mroué’s play: Banned, protested, Unbanned
• Opinion: The Lebanese should have a strategic armistice
• Michel Suleiman: Inevitable candidate?
• Tsunami in Lebanon?

September

• Does the opposition still have traction?
• Saad Hariri, the shameless pro-American
• Who killed Antoine Ghanem?
• Hezbollah’s tent city, now on Google earth

October

• An American military base in Lebanon?
• My trip to Washington
• The Curious case of Hussein Zurkot
• Lebanese and politics. A game of soccer
• The incredible Google catch on Lebanon

November

• March 14 endorse Michel Suleiman
• Mr. Suleiman is popular

December

• The killing of François Hajj
• Who did it?

After I finished the compilation, I realized: Wow, this was one eventful year. Lebanon is quite the soap opera don’t you think?

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Army Corrects Assafir: Officers Did NOT Object To Promotion

Assafir‘s “scoops” are turning out to be nothing but empty propaganda wishlists.

As-Safir Newspaper - : 1500 ????: ???? ??????? ??? ?????? ???? ?????????

This morning, the pro-opposition newspaper Assafir ran a story which alleged that Army officers were refusing promotions given to them by the Seniora government. Naturally, the subtext of the story was that the Army -a respectable institution- was not ok with Mr. Seniora’s using presidential powers.

Even Naharnet, the vanguard March 14 website, believed and ran Assafir‘s story. But as today’s flat Army denial shows, the story is totally false.

The Seniora cabinet had held a session to sign resolutions previously turned down by ex-President Emile Lahoud. Those included crucial measures like the payment of retirement money to government officials and belated promotions.

As falsehoods often do, Assafir‘s story backfired. The Army’s rebuttal included a reference to “H.E. Mr. Seniora”, the very point Assafir wanted to undermine.

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A Catch: The Aounist Point Of View Stated Eloquently

While FPM supporters insist that they are reasonable people, most of the readers of this blog associate Aounists with nutheads and demagogues (comments by Aoun supporters are hardly changing this perception).

This is why when May Akl, a foreign press coordinator for the FPM, writes an article in the Daily Star that centers around a Aounist worldview without tayyar.org’s sectarian firebreathing, it is worth reading and discussing.

Please take your time to read it (No subscription link)and let me know what you think of it.

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Seniora’s Surprise Move Puts The Opposition Off-Balance

The opposition’s bungled-up reaction to Mr. Seniora’s latest move is testimony to its effectiveness.


Source: Yahoo!

For the last few weeks, the majority was in a fix. For every concession they made, the opposition asked for more. It was becoming clear to March 14 that the opposition was sensing weakness, and that what it really wanted is a vacuum that lasts until the Arab League Summit in Damascus next March.

Hardball is the Lebanese way of negotiating. And the only way one can extract concessions is by storming out of the negotiation room and going it alone. That was more or less what the Seniora government has just done. After all, a quest for total domination disguised as a pursuit of consensus can only fool some people for some time. March 14 might have decided that it’s time to turn the table.

Mr. Seniora’s move was so sudden and unexpected that the opposition couldn’t coordinate a common position. Even the otherwise calm Al-Akhbar blurted out that Mr. Seniora is compromising Mr. Suleiman’s presidency (a ridiculous charge considering the measures were precisely made for electing Mr. Suleiman)

To Mr. Aoun, the measures were Seniora’s blatant usurping of Christian rights (by using the President’s powers). To Mr. Berri, they were an unconstitutional move by an unconstitutional government, and to Hezbollah they were the result of an American shot in the arm to divide the Lebanese.

One can argue on whether or not Mr. Seniora’s measures were the right thing to do, but what we can all agree on is that the waters needed some stirring.

Related Beirut Spring Post:

• In November 22, I wrote on how Lebanon moved into “Vacuum Management”

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What Turmoil?

What the holiday spirit tells us about Lebanon and the Lebanese.

When I left Tripoli to go to Beirut’s RHI Airport, I calculated that my trip will take the usual one hour and a half. I was wrong. I blame my nearly-missed flight (and the terrible prospect of having to wait a month for another available seat) on all the shopping going around; it took me an additional 30 minutes to cross the Dbayyeh highway facing the ABC mall, and an additional 30 minutes in the 500m strip before City mall.

I’ve driven on this highway for ages, but I’ve never seen so many people. Where did they all come from?

An article in today’s New York Times can help enlighten us.

…the Lebanese diaspora reverses itself on holidays, as the migrants who sustain the war-shattered Lebanese economy all year return from jobs across the globe to spend time with their families. Nothing will deter them — not bad weather, not interminable flights and certainly not the Grinch-like mood of Lebanon’s endlessly feuding politicians.

In other words, for all the talk of the Lebanese being “politicized”, we couldn’t care less about politics when the time comes for celebrating with our families. As the Ministry of Tourism’s clever ad puts it: The safest place in the world is in the arms of your loved ones.

Paradoxically, the people outside of Lebanon are the most concerned about the Lebanese “situation”. The biggest headaches for those inside on the other hand are finding reservations and parking spots. The politicians can squabble all they want, but they really do think twice before messing with is our “holidays’ inverse Diaspora”

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Quick Note

A few more days and I’ll be out of Lebanon and hopefully the postings will be back to normal. I hate to make excuses but I can’t believe how difficult it is to get a decent temporary internet connection here.

Anyway, Happy hollidays to all and thanks again for baring with me. I’ll leave you now with some posters I found in Tripoli..

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Annahar: Lebanon Will Have President Today

According to the Lebanese daily, the 9th election session might turn out to be the real deal after all.

After a few days of butting heads, March 14 MPs came up with a piece of constitutional voodoo that they hope will produce a president and save face for the opposition. Annahar went as far as saying that “the white smoke has come out at night”

? ???? ??? ????? ????? ???? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ???? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ????????? ??????? ?????????? ??????? ????? ????? ?????? ??????? ??? ???? ????? ?????? ???????? ??? ???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????????? ?? ??? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ??????? ????????.

In other words, Annahar seems to be suggesting, if Syria wants to play ball and respond to international pressures, there is a ready-made way to proceed that won’t embarrass Amal and Hezbollah.

The only problem with this exit from the opposition’s point of view is that it will snub Mr. Michel Aoun, their Christian ally whom they supposedly entrusted with negotiating with March 14.

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Sarkozy’s Empty Threats?

Does the French president have what it takes to face Syria’s meddling in Lebanon?

After an E.U. summit in Brussels, the French President engaged in a little chest thumping: Monday, he declared with a feisty look, is the last chance for the Lebanese parliament to elect a president. If that didn’t happen, France and other nations will “isolate” the forces responsible for hampering the elections.

Those are fine intentions and fine words. In fact, they could even be serious if one heard what our Minister of communications Marwan Hmadeh said in Paris. The international community, he said, is as determined to elect a new Lebanese President as is was in 2005 when it managed to boot out the Syrian occupying forces.

But one can’t help but ask: Does Mr. Sarkozy have the ability and wherewithal to face the Assad regime?

Le President hyperactif – le Lapin Duracel as he’s known in France- strikes the portrait of a tough-talking man in charge who’s nevertheless anxious for quick results. His dealing with the Bulgarian nurses crisis, the French strikers and recently, the Lebanese crisis, indicate that he’s willing to strike deals at the expense of some declared ideals.

The regime in Syria to the contrary, is a time buyer. Like the resistance movements they love to espouse, they lay low when the enemy is attacking, only to sneak back later when fatigue exhausts the assaulter.

Such a troublesome adversary needs is a well-developed long-term plan that combines patience with a gradual increase of pressure. Until now, Mr. Sarkozy hardly looks like the man to spearhead such a plan.

Related Beirut Spring Articles:

• In March, I wrote a post endorsing Mr. Sarkozy for the French presidency • But I later noticed that Sarkozy’s France is misguided on Syria • Recently, I was startled at how naive Mr. Kouchner, the French Foreign Minister, seems to be on Lebanon • I had noted that big carrots, like those France are offering, are not what Syria needed.

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On Blaming Syria

If one’s quest for truth does not contain an element of uncertainty, it must be flawed.

I just read an article by the Daily Star’s Mark Sirois which more-or-less equates the “knee-jerk” blaming of Syria after each terrorist attack with the old ways of blaming Israel for everything that goes wrong. To many, that’s quite a paradigm shift.

Of course, Mr. Sirois’ argument is not that Syria has nothing to do with the string of bombings that killed many anti-Syrian figures in the last two years; it’s that the Lebanese have a habit of rushing to conclusions that are based on prior convictions. As he puts it: “a rush to judgment can be off-base or incomplete even if the facts, when logically analyzed, seem to support it”

In the article, Mr Sirois also explained a very important Lebanese concept, what he termed the tradition of dueling narratives: “In this process, each important event that takes place is filtered through a given camp’s worldview, and what emerges is a theory that appears to support that party’s arguments, claims and predictions – and, tacitly or implicitly, to blame the other side for whatever has happened.“

As a blogger who cut his teeth in the Cedar revolution, I believe in my gut that it is Syria who’s behind the attacks. I also admire and respect the people who believe so. But I also think that it’s a disservice to truth and to critical thinking to completely deny the other possibilities, no matter how strongly we feel about our own convictions.

I was surprised at how many people reproached me because of the previous post, in which I mentioned the different theories of who killed Mr. el Hajj. Apparently, my crime was that I was creating a “moral equivalence” between the different ideas. I disagree.

The quest for truth is not the only reason why one should open one’s mind to other ideas. There is another, more pragmatic reason: By accepting the existence of other possibilities, one can create a psychological space for a sane discussion with the people who have different points of view. Since it is open mindedness and debate, not stubborn convictions, that are at the heart of a liberal democracy, maybe it’s not such a bad idea after all.

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The 3.5 Theories On Who Killed François Hajj

Here’s a summary of the theories making the rounds in Beirut concerning the killing of General François Hajj.

Theory 1: The thugs in Damascus

Who killed him: The Syrian Regime
Why they did it: Because they want to keep the Lebanese executive authority paralyzed for trouble-free maneuvering and because they’re threatening Mr. Suleiman with a similar fate if he dares to challenge them.
Why it’s plausible: The Syrian Vice President said only yesterday that no one could beat Syria in Lebanon. Also, Syria has a history of meddling in Lebanese affairs.
Who believes this theory: The pro-independence March 14 movement and many independents.
Why the theory could be in doubt: The victim was ideologically close to Syria’s allies.

Theory 2: The dastardly Zionists and Americans

Who killed him: Secret American and Israeli agents
Why they did it: They are intervening through terrorism, as they usually do, to save the March 14 group from a politically weak position. They are also ridding the Army of a potential anti-Israeli leader
Why it’s plausible: The sophistication of the attack and the scale of the security breach can only be executed by very resourceful agencies.
Who believes this theory: Amal, Hezbollah and some Aounists
Why the theory could be in doubt: such a move by the Americans is very risky to their March 14 allies and could cause an enormous backlash if uncovered.

Theory 3: Al-Quaeda Terrorists

Who killed him: Hardline Islamists
Why they did it: They want to revenge Mr. Hajj’s successful military campaign against their diabolical schemes in the Naher Al Bared camp in the north.
Why it’s plausible: Only a suicidal freak can ram an explosive car in a General’s car in the heart of the Army’s security zone.
Who believes this theory: Politicians might end up adopting this theory because it’s the most convenient and the most face-saving.
Why the theory could be in doubt: for such a major “success”, you’d think Al-Quaeda’s leadership would jump in to claim it. That didn’t happen yet.

Honorary mention, Theory 3.5: The Evil Saniora

Who killed him: Fouad Seniora’s negligence
Why he did it: To undermine the Christians and monopolize power.
Why it’s plausible: It’s always Seniora’s fault
Who believes this theory: Michel Aoun
Why the theory could be in doubt: …