Lee Smith, a man who knows a good deal about Lebanon and who has visited our country many times, wrote a piece in the Weekly Standard on why March 14 is now accepting Mr. Suleiman’s Presidency.
The question the article attempts to answer is this one: “Suleiman is Damascus’s number one choice to fill the now vacant spot. So why have Hariri and his colleagues, including Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt and leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea, made an about face?”
His answer is in the article…
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The beirut spring is a blog that is interested in Lebanese society and its politics. It started in February 2005 after the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
November 30th, 2007 at 11:13 pm
Indeed, Lee Smith’s analysis pretty much puts a final nail in the Cedar Revolution’s coffin.
Well, folks, it was fun while it lasted. Now back to pre-2005 “order”.
December 1st, 2007 at 12:14 am
A new Lebanon free of syrian hegemony…That was a nice dream.
These events pretty much seal our fate. We’ll stay immigrants forever.
December 1st, 2007 at 12:25 am
The God damn peace process has killed more people than all Mideast wars added together.
The God damn peace process is going to get us all killed.
December 1st, 2007 at 12:44 am
The report on NowLebanon says much the same thing BUT, says M14 took this decision before Annapolis. It’s not “reasonable” to expect any “peace talk” to exclude Syria, or Lebanon for that matter. Is this a good enough reason to flush the Cedar Revolution down the toilet? Apparently so. It’s been “explained” to me that Hariri insisted that the USA had to “do” something (translation - attack) to Syria to “stop” them. The answer was … No, we will not attack Syria at this time. The USA expected M14 to belly up to the bar and take a tough stand against the ‘opposition’. Stop allowing Berri to hijack the Parliament, stop allowing Hezbollah and Aoun to blackmail the Government - but they couldn’t do that.
I guess it makes sense to them to just fold to Syria & Hezbollah because they “think” that the USA “might” have better relations with Syria. That’s about the stupidest rational I’ve ever heard. I think they are just worn down, just as the people of Lebanon are worn down. Hariri is willing to give up justice for his murdered father ….. that about says it all, what could any of them care about the future of a country if they are willing to do that?
December 1st, 2007 at 12:59 am
A very discouraging and disappointing state of affairs. It seems that every time we think we see a light at the end of the tunnel, we go back to square one. It appears that the assassination of Rafik Harriri has accomplished its goals. The goal to paralyze Lebanon and send it back in a wheel-chair into the hands of the Syrian regime. Unfortunately, might is still right in Lebanon. Who ever has the biggest guns will prevail. What a shame. The glimmer of a vibrant, progressive and multi-cultural nation may be quickly fading in front of our very eyes. What a shame. Even the participants in this suffocation will one day realize that their destructive ways will ultimately be self-directed.
December 1st, 2007 at 1:01 am
Ace,
An important detail, the tribunal is not just about Hariri Sr, or Saad and his Dad.
It was put in place after 2 Leb presidents, K. Joumblatt, a mufti etc and countless other national figures and officials were killed over a period of 30 years.
It’s about destroying the whole country. If it were just about Hariri Sr, Lebanon would perhaps be justified dealing in the tribunal.
December 1st, 2007 at 2:32 am
When the music is over, turn off the light.
Terrorism wins!
December 1st, 2007 at 2:57 am
Before you quote the Weekly Standard maybe you should tell your readers that it is the mouth piece for Rupert Murdoch the owner of Fox and is edited by William Kristol who is to the right of Genghis Khan.
Lee Smith had nothing to offer except silly speculation. In all fairness to him he did cover his behind when he stated that no deal was ever done but that March 14 feared that a deal would be sealed. What Mr. Smith, you and the gutless Hariri and his allies of spineless dwarfs fail to explain is why would they accept any “solution” that would weakeb Lebanese democracy and sovereignty even if they have been sold by the US , which they have not. There is nothing that will excuse the behaviour of the March 14 pols. They are the ones that have betrayed the trust of the Lebanese people.
December 1st, 2007 at 4:09 am
Josey ….. of course I realize the Tribunal is about each and every Lebanese who has given (or had taken away) their lives in this fight. I mourn the most for the journalists - they fought on the front line, and they did it because they were natural Patriots who saw a way to the future. This is about all the politicians, all the media people and (for me) the innocent bystanders who had their lives stolen.
I forget none of them - but, it will not matter. They will all be lost in history.
Giving up is just that, and there is no way to “pretty it up” with excuses. Giving up, and giving in, is bad enough - but to make it clear once and for all, that the Constitution has no meaning, and no value is inexcusable. All of Lebanon will pay for this, and they will pay for it dearly. In the past, it was an occupation Army with 1000’s of troops that forced this sort of thing. Today, it is nothing but cowardice and fear.
December 1st, 2007 at 6:53 am
Are these dark thoughts being felt in Lebanon itself? Will relief at the release of tension give way to depression? Is someone going to get pissed off? Or is it to be a resumption of mass denial?
December 1st, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Even if Suleiman was elected, the crisis is not over! We still have to put together a government and I am sure that Hizballah will try to get something to legitimize the decisions taken by the government since their ministers resigned from the government!
December 1st, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Even if Suleiman was elected, the crisis is not over! We still have to put together a government and I am sure that Hizballah will try to get something to legitimize the decisions taken by the government since their ministers resigned from the government!
December 1st, 2007 at 2:58 pm
GK ….. I’m sure you mean “reverse” decisions, not “legitimize” them. No problem, that’s part of their “demands”.
From NowLebanon
“Saturday, December 1
Resigned Minister Mohammed Fneish said that Hezbollah does not object the election of army commander General Michel Sleiman as president.
“If a political agreement is reached over his candidacy, other obstacles will be solved without difficulty,” Fneish told the Lebanese daily al-Akhbar.
“Constitutional amendments will be nothing but a detail,” he added.
Fneish said that resigned ministers will return to the government if this is necessary to amend the constitution.
“However, we will not retroactively approve the decisions taken by the government in the past year,” he added.”
December 1st, 2007 at 6:09 pm
It’s all as simple as this:
When the Patriarch decided to not support the simple majority option he basically signed the Cedar Revolution’s death warrant.
He effectively tied up March 14 and the West’s hands. This opened up further room for a deal between the Americans and the Syrians or speculation about one.
First, they couldn’t really impose anyone. Second, it was obvious that the West wasn’t going to do anything about Syria and was prepared to engage it in return for stability on all fronts of the Middle East crisis in Leb, Palestine and Iraq and trying to isolate Iran further. And they didn’t want to support anything the Patriarch of the Maronites wasn’t on board with.
Again, consensus…consensus…oh the evil that comes with consensus on such an important thing such as the identity and direction of a country.
Jumblatt did what was necessary to protect the Druze in Mount Lebanon. Hariri fearing Sunni-Shiite clashes did nothing. Geagea fearing Christian-Christian clashes also did nothing. Aoun effectively SCREWED the Christians when he decided to trust Murr, Frangieh, Wahab, Arslan and especially HA.
March 14 was a great day. What came after that was the fight over the spoils by the Leaders of the March 14 alliance. One side made the Quartet alliance. Another (Aoun) made the alliance of the Syrian thugs. Each March 14 side strengthened the Syrian puppets further and further. Until March 14 in its entirety wasn’t about the ideals, the visions, and a new direction for Lebanon. It was about survival.
We are now once again a nation with no direction, and new vision. We are ‘ma7koumouna’ bil tawafouk and effectively ‘ma7koumouna’ min al kharij and ‘ma7koumouna’ bil fashal…
December 1st, 2007 at 6:10 pm
‘new’ in the last paragraph is ‘NO’.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:07 pm
All I have to say about Suleiman is BIG MISTAKE. Time and time again we have proven that we do not learn from our mistakes. We do not understand the concept of a constitutional. It is precisely for situations like these that the constitution must be followed. We are making a job of this constitution of ours the way it keeps getting amended as if it was a high school essay paper!
December 1st, 2007 at 11:09 pm
MK said it all. The question is, what next? Aoun will make some more noise, but really his alliance with HizbAllah will come to haunt him, sooner rather than later. The problem is, what will HizbAllah do? Look, they managed to do pretty much all they wanted when they wanted. That will only boost their already exaggerated confidence in their military might and very important, in their ideology. HizbAllah will play the democratic game (well democratic in name) till it can impose its will. Did you guys notice what Nasrallah said recently? ‘Let us go back to the people.’ This is a democratic idea, after all. When they will manage to pull it, then all sane people have to pack and leave. If the tribunal fails, elections failed, Christians failed although they were backed by the Sunnis this time and not stabbed in the back as at the Taef, then Lebanon is on its way to hell. The winner of the day is HizbAllah and suddenly the idea of an Islamic Lebanon is closer to home than many would like to admit. Let’s hope I am wrong.
December 2nd, 2007 at 3:24 am
The Weekly Standard is definetly the neoconservative mouthpeice. There is no question about that.
Lee Smith is a scholar at the Hudson Institute, while not exactly fair and balanced, we have to remember that Robert Fisk and Patrick Seale are very liberal.
Still, not a big fan of anything that comes out of the Weekly Standard. Its not exactly the most “scholarly” journal on the planet.
December 2nd, 2007 at 3:41 am
Its fine and dandy to sit back now and continue to rue the day that we (ALL OF US) sat on our asses and decided to let M14 take the reigns of power. Imagine!!! we were stupid enough to let a political novice with a goatee, a half baked drag queen who cries in front of the tv, a chameleon who looks like an undernourished albert einstein, and a gangster and warlord who reminds me of a crazy doctor to lead the way. Many do not know, but Gebran Tueni was a close friend of mine and his life AND death has left me wanting. It has become increasingly difficult to clearly see the folly and absolute cowardice unfolding before my eyes and still do nothing. For me its simple, I can’t let it happen like that.
On friday, I quit 1 of my two jobs and on the last day of this month I will quit the other. Why, you ask in astonishment, would I do such a thing? Well I think it is about time I try and make a diference (KERMEL LUBNAN!!!!) and because im sick of being a small fish in a big pond…capiche?!?! In 2 months time im returning to lebanon to do what none of the cowards currently living there want to do. Speak the truth and say it loudly enough for all of our well dressed politicos to hear. It goes something like this…YOU ARE ALL PIECES OF SHIT(large and small) NOW GET THE FCUK OUT!!
Mustapha, I have enjoyed reading your blog tremendously. Your perspective has been enocuraging and refreshing and I wish you continued success and well being. I am glad to count you as my countryman.
I will continue to say my “goodbyes” on other blogs just to make sure that some most excellent people get the news first hand.
hasta la vista compadres…until we meet again…inshallah.
AYESH LUBNAN
Shunkeash has left the building.
December 2nd, 2007 at 6:48 pm
If you want to point a finger of blame at one person, it’s obvious who it would be. On March 14th 2005, over 1 million Lebanese joined hands, in one of the proudest moments in the history of Lebanon, to say “Syria Out”. And Syrians left without one bullet being shot! The opportunity was there, right within reach. Then, when Aoun returned from France, it seemed like everything changed. Go on YouTube and watch how, on his arrival in the airport, he told everyone “Sketou!!”. Who the hell does he think he is? The feeling became more depressed. Alliances he made were with HA, Michel Murr, Sleiman Franjieh, for God’s sake! We had a chance, and that son-of-a-bitch killed Lebanon with his dictatorship dreams, for a second time.
December 3rd, 2007 at 12:36 am
Shunkleash,
I like your attitude, but how exactly are you going to “Speak the truth and say it loudly enough for all of our well dressed politicos to hear”? I’m just curious here no irony intended.