Foreboding lets some March 14 members accept the candidacy of the Army’s chief.
Man in charge?
“Yes I am taking the course of calm because the Lebanese citizen is frightened of the possibility of confrontation and chaos, and if the opposition doesn’t consider this fear too, they’d be fools because they also have a public opinion”. Thus introduced ex-hawk Walid Jumblat his new openness to the other side and his newly re-found “realpolitik“
The foreboding is not without its causes. The Shiaas are heavily armed and are recruiting furiously, and supporters of the main Sunni faction Almustaqbal are beginning to display their own guns. Yesterday in Tripoli (less than a couple of miles from where this post is written), a previously unknown militia by the name of “Tripoli brigades” - allied to Almustaqbal- got involved in an armed kerkuffle with the loathed pro-Syrian Islamists of Attawhid.The clash was short and the casualties were minimal, but it would have been a much bigger tragedy if it weren’t for the Army’s heavy presence.
Some see this as an apt metaphor to how a civil war can be prevented. March 14 representatives are joining their constituents in changing their minds about the Sleiman candidacy. Even LF leader Samir Geagea who was previously heavily opposed to the idea answered when asked about his candidacy that “all the options are on the table”. The table being the secret negotiations everyone is having away from the media.
The appeal of Mr. Sleiman is that he seems committed to civil peace before anything else, and in Mr. Jumblat’s logic, this transcends the occasional blind eye Mr. Sleiman turns to Syria. Politicians who have long supported Mr. Suleiman are thrilled. MP. Michel El Murr has forsaken his alliance with Mr. Michel Aoun to visit the serail, dissociate himself from Aoun’s latest initiative and wax praise on Mr. Seniora, Aoun’s nemesis.
According to Mr. Jumblat, what Lebanon needs now is a president who manages the crisis. Discussing our political difference can come later, he said. It doesn’t look too difficult to guess who’s on Mr. Jumblat’s mind.
Related Beirut Spring posts:
• Back in August, I argued precisely for what Mr. Jumblat is doing today • I then Called Mr. Suleiman the inevitable candidate • I also shared an anecdote about him that a reader posted • In September I pinpointed the one word Mr. Suleiman likes to be associated with.
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The beirut spring is a blog that is interested in Lebanese society and its politics. It started in February 2005 after the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
November 28th, 2007 at 8:59 am
I posted a comment on septembr 4th in regards to General Sleiman pls read
http://beirutspring.com/blog/2007/09/03/mr-unity/#comment-16179
November 28th, 2007 at 10:08 am
Good stuff as always. Will be reading your posts before I read any news site. Just wanted to suggest that since your back in Leb now if you could try to post as much as you can regarding the situation from where you are along with friends, family, or even service drivers (they can be very insightful weathervanes) opinions and ideas on which way the impasse is heading. Thank you, stay safe, and keep up the good work.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:20 am
I don’t agree with Joumblat, we don’t need a president to manage the crisis! we need a president that solves it and stops new ones from starting!
November 28th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Eliedh, get real man :)
If you solve the illness, how can you sell the remedy ?
Don’t let your zaim unemployed ;)
November 28th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
You know what, I’m opening up to the idea of Slueiman too.
And besides, if the opposition somehow manages to reject him for whatever reason, this will certainly bring Slueiman closer to March 14. And might give March 14 the Army’s cover to elect with a simple majority.
November 28th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
Mus,
You are right! A lot of bloggers were right on when they predicted a few weeks ago that Sleiman was the choice that Syria was pushing…I think deep in their thinking March 14 had him as a maybe but resisted to attract HA approval. Now as you mention Murr has shifted by embarrassing clAoun by describing his “meetings” as a series of appointments with ex-MPs…Today the Future Movement has chimed in with their readiness to alter the constitution for Sleiman…Of course that has totally freaked out the IDIOT! I’m sure he’ll seek the consult of Daher to say they cannot change the constitution…
Mus, Let’s hope you’ll elect the prez when you’re there…
November 28th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
Mustapha,
Could you please ask your neighbors about the clash in Tripoli yesterday? I think the people in the street know more than anyone else! Al-Mustaqbal denied any relation with one of the groups. My cousins (in Beirut) are telling me that Al-Mustaqbal is organizing (not arming) groups in each Sunni neighborhood!
November 28th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
This turn of events is quite hilarious. So now we are going to amend the constitution? Perfect, parliament will meet, change the constitution and get the Prime Minister’s signature and the President’s signature. Oh wait, there is no President! And one more little detail according to the Constitution (or what’s left of it) Parliament loses all its power to issue laws or decree if there is no sitting President. In such a situation, Parliament’s only power is to elect a President. But then this is Lebanon and we place our Constitution on the same level as our traffic laws.
November 28th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
I’m one of those who said the Syrian choice frcom the beginning was Sleiman. HA will approve this one. He will now have the Army and the President.
None of it can happen legally - but, will that matter? The Parliament is an electoral body now that the “chair” is vacant and they cannot “legally” pass any amendments to the Constitution. I hear that Aoun is OK with this, which proves beyond doubt that he is firmly in the pocket of Hezbollah & Syria.
Looks like a “deal” happened in Annapolis afterall, and the threats and intimidation have done their job.
Score this one for Syria.
November 28th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
Mustapha, did you receive my e-mail from last week?
November 28th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Aoun never really said he is behind this crazy plan. He told reports, when asked, “Check with the constitutional experts on its legality”. Basically he’s mocking everyone who actually thought this plan would work. He knows that this cannot be done legally and most likely will make sure it comes crashing down.
November 28th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
It won’t come “crashing down” - in Lebanon, the Speaker of the Parliament is the only person who has the “authority” to decide what is Constitutional, when the Parliament can meet, and what it will do when it does meet.
They will once again - ignore the Constitution.
November 28th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
Just last week, M14 rejected Aoun’s proposal because, according to them, it does not respect the the constitution. Yet today, they seem more than willing to amend it.
Can someone convince that these people are serious!
November 28th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Great, getting an army man to power … again, amending the constitution … again, WHYYYYY?
If Sleiman is elected, it would be a big disappointment in March 14 who will even regret this in the future.
November 28th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
I have read somewhere that suleiman’s brother in law is bashar el assad’s spokesperson. So suleiman is very close to the syrian’s regime and will undoubtedly follow the tracks of lahoud. What a shame for our country if we replace lahoud with suleiman. Even lahoud said that he will hand over the reigns to suleiman.
the constitutional void should not be grounds for acceptance of a second class citizen president who will continue to place Lebanon on a syrian platter.
November 28th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Sleiman may be a nice guy, after all - I don’t him. But to gamble on the country future that way, is to ask too much! And he should know that, and be the first to say that he can’t be a prez (at least this time, when he’s still in the army), and that he is ok (or resign) with any prez democratically elected.
But… this is Lebanon.
Lahoud may have leaved, but the “lahoudian” style remains… and the constitutional toilet paper will be cooked once more, “à la la7oud”
November 28th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Sleiman is far away from Lahoudian style. While being self-respecting but reasonably soft with the Syrians: Sleiman is deep rooted patriotic Lebanese.
I don’t see him participating and orchestrating assassinations like Emilia did. However, he should be pushed to involve the Army Intelligence to actively start protecting March 14th leaders!
Of course, HA knows that Sleiman won’t act deliberately against its holy arms.
The freaking loser will be Oxymoron Ayatollah Aoun! He’ll be crying all night long, taking extra anti-depression pills!
November 28th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Sam, I didn’t meant to say that sleiman == la7oud. But all this hush-hush on changing the law has a lahoudian smell :)
There’s a proverb that (as I’ve heard) comes from land beyond the blue line that says: “You cannot break the law, you can only break yourself against the law.”, but if this constitutional patch does indeed goes forward, we’ll be innovating:
“You cannot break the law, …”
(choose one)
1) “…how do you break what you can change.”
2) “…how do you break what don’t actually exists.”
3) “…but you can rip the toilet paper.”
I’ll send a proposal to berri to revoke the gravity law, so we’ll have the first lebanese astronaut.
November 28th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
Mostapha,
You will not find bigger liars than Michele ‘Aoun and Walid Jumblatt. Both are just power hungry and really could not care for any agenda. Michele ‘Aoun was talking to Pat Robertson’s 700 club years back saying how HA were terrorists, and now he is in bed with them.
Walid and Michele will do whatever they want to trick whoever they want.
At least Hariri, Nesralah, Geagea, and Gemayl stand for SOMETHING and are consistent.
November 28th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
As an additional note, if they agree on Michel Sluieman that will be the smartest thing. ‘Aoun will screw over both March 14th and March 8th in the end because he just wants power, and has historically turned his back on everyone. He will try as hard as possible to win.
Sluieman will be more to both March 8th and March 14th’s liking than ‘Aoun. He’s a good choice.
November 28th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
Sleiman is not Syria’s first choice… Sleiman was Syria’s choice when they thought March 14 would oppose him - Syria’s choice is a void in the presidency, Hezb’s choice is a void in the presidency.
Now that March 14 are agreeing to elect Sleiman, expect Hezb to use Aoun to raise objections to Sleiman…
Even if March 14 decide to agree to Aoun becoming president, Hezb would find a way to object to it also…
wait and see!
November 28th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
wasn’t the idea of a military man the main negative of Aoun for an extended period of time?
Subhan l bighayyer l ma biyetghayyar!!!
What a play these people are orchestrating.
November 28th, 2007 at 9:06 pm
To Star :)
Instant gratification takes too long.
To Leb Exile :)
I would Hope Sleiman is up there, temporarely, if they’re changing the constitution to elect Michel Sleiman - I’d rather have Riad Salemeh.
To Abu Hatem :)
Everyone is a prisoner of his own experiences. No one can eliminate prejudices — just recognize them. - Edward R. Morrow
and to Mustapha :)
Great post - I love your honesty, which keeps me coming back for more ;-)
November 28th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
[…] The word is out and it’s spreading rapidly. Yesterday’s hawks are now acting like wet defeated chickens unless this is a bluff – in which case we would definitely be reassured.But what happened exactly? Has the futile Christian paranoia exerted by the Hizbullah- Theofascist ally, General Michel Aoun, finally made its case? Are we abandoning ourselves to the overt Islamic threat in Lebanon and their madman ally? […]
November 28th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
hi evryone,
i am german but i am following the events in lebanon carefully since i spent a couple of months there this year.
wt i d like to know is the following: why is there actually the need to amend the constitution to allow the election of mr sleiman as president? as far as i know fouad chehab and emile lahoud became president after being head of the LAF…so what is different today?
November 28th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
Too late for Suleiman. They would have had to amend the Constitution last week. (Article 75 says Parliament can only meet as an electoral body to elect the president if no president currently exists.)
November 29th, 2007 at 12:29 am
c.sydow
Check this blog entry it my help you understand.
November 29th, 2007 at 12:36 am
None of this mumbo jumbo matters. It is unconstitutional for parliament to pass an amendement right now. As per article 75, parliament is now STRICTLY an electoral body with no legislative powers.
So if March 14 is willing to trample on the constitution now, then this whole fight over the past year would have been in vain. What’s the freakin point of claiming to uphold the constitution, and making all these arguments about 2/3s and 50+1, and cabinets assuming powers after 11/24 if we don’t care about the constitution? Let every Joe, Ahmad and Mustapha make their own rules, declare their own governments/presidents/kingdoms and let’s move on from this failure of a state.
In my book, M14 pretty much loses all moral high ground they might have had with regards to constitution, law and order, with this dumb proposal.
November 29th, 2007 at 1:23 am
The test isn’t what M14 thinks of the “moral high ground”. The test is what the people think of this proposal. If they accept it without a peep, M14 knows that Cedar Revolution is truly over and they have to cut the best deal they can with the powers of darkness.
Are any Lebanese willing to turn out en masse to demonstrate against this in the streets of downtown Beirut? Are any expatriates here in America willing to go before a TV reporter and denounce the proposal? Is there even one Lebanese willing to step forward and organize such things?
November 29th, 2007 at 2:20 am
I’m willing to do whatever it takes to protect the values of the Cedar Revolution!
My only concern is nobody else cares. People are so disgusted with the situation they’ll be happy with any deal. People all over blasting politicians and politics in Lebanon in general.
I encourage people standing up firmly for what they believe in and getting involved in politics as mean to an end. It isn’t an end!
I’m in Toronto right now. I’m willing to do whatever it takes in order to make the March 14 leaders realize that there are some of us out there that built so much hope of a prosperous future for the country and I’m not willing to give it up!
November 29th, 2007 at 3:39 am
To realpolitk:
Constitutions are made to serve society and organize power and state affairs. Constitutions are not the Bible nor the Torah.
Sadly enough our country is weak, divided with no rule of law. I would love to see March 14th electing a pure March 14th president. But could they? If yes, when?
Lebanese constitution is far from being prefect. Otherwise we wouldn’t be in this madness now. So let’s find a creative realpolitik solutions to this unfinished dilemma. Sleiman is patriotic, realistic and has vision, patience and respect.
Maybe he’s too good for such a crazy nation!
November 29th, 2007 at 4:37 am
That’s bullshit. Constitutions are not perfect. Granted. That’s why there is a mechanism for amending them. But you can’t go breaking them left and right for the sake of “realpolitik”.
M14 might as well lower itself to the level of the opposition and start a campaign of assassinations of their opponents. Launch their own militias, etc.
What has put March14 ahead so far, and made them the more palatable side (despite many blunders) is the fact that they’ve played the game by the rules. They’ve been on the up and up and done everything by the book. They resisted the baiting of the opposition by staying within the framework of the law and the constitution. They responded to assassinations by pushing for a tribunal, not launching their own assassins. They responded to an armed militia by pushing the army (Nahr Al Bared), not starting their own militias. They responded to sovereignty issues by taking it up with the UN (as opposed to starting wars). They responded to the 2 government threats by sticking to the letter of the constitution, which allowed them the legitimacy of exercising presidential powers once Lahoud left.
Now, you want to throw all that away, by suddenly breaking the constitution? If you do that, you give credence to all the complaints about illegitimacy that M8 has been making this whole time (which almost no one was buying to this point, because everyone knew M14 had done nothing illegal or unconstitutional).
On principle, the moment you go outside the law, you open up a can of worms and you forfeit the times where you need the law to work FOR YOU.
I know people in Lebanon to think this way (and that’s really the problem here!) but in most countries, if someone steals your car, you don’t go steal their car or shooting them up with a gun. You go to the Police and you have the perpetrator arrested and tried. The moment you are willing to bypass the law and take matters into your own hands, you basically acknowledge that if you can do it to this guy today. Someone else can do it to YOU tomorrow.
November 29th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
That’s it in a nutshell BV. Good post.
M14 had done a pretty good job of avoiding the “slippery slope”, with the main exception of letting Berri have total control of Parliament, and IF they do this amendment - they will have sunk to the level of the ‘opposition’, and given up on everything.
Threats, intimidation and fear will have (once again) won the day.
November 29th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
BV:
on the mark, as usual :)
Sam:
As I’ve said, I don’t have anything against sleiman as *civilian* prez, despite:
1) his syrian connections
2) his “performance” in el-bared as head of the army, and the broad sad state of the army hardware (but kudos to the lower ranks peopleware!).
What I’m against is our usual solution of “just this time”. Remember how many “on more time” we have saw ? How it worked out for Lebanon ?
And, finally, yes, the constitution ultimate objective is to be a “reference framework” for the people and it’s society and it’s not the Bible/Torah — agree. But also it’s not like a whorehouse guest book that anyone and his pet can leave a note.
That said, it can change, of course, it’s not set in stone, but it’s not done in 15 min and not by a bunch of ‘zuama’ in a dark rainy night and presented to everyone else as fait accompli the next day.
November 29th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
WELL SAID, BV!!!! Most of the folks at the 14M websites I’ve visited are busy wondering about the army Commander’s ties to Syria, etc, but honestly, the one redeeming ray of hope from the 14M group was their position of playing by the book. If they choose to disregard the importance of the Constitution now, then, imho, they’re no better than 8M, and the Cedar Revolution is finally declared, by the actions of 14M, to be legally dead. :(
November 29th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
It would be incredibly shortsighted for March 14 to piss on the constitution only to end up with a lesser evil. The article that excludes army commander from running for presidency is there for a good reason: to make sure that the army is not politicized. It’s not worth to elect Suleiman if it means that replacement might make military decisions on his presidential ambitions rather than what’s good for Lebanon.
November 29th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
BV I completely agree!
If this is what March 14 has become than the last 3 years has been a complete waste of time. Wasn’t the whole point of March 14 and the Bristol gatherings to prevent the amendment of the constitution and curtail Syrian control and influence over the country! Wasn’t that supposed to be the launch pad for building an independent, democratic and strong state!
If that has failed March 14 should just announce that it has. Spare me all the ‘realpolitik’ and ‘preserving civil peace’ crap. We are a failed state, threatened by a militia with no regard to the law, constitution, and Lebanon in general! So what does March 14 do, disregard the only article or document that can protect even a illusory sense of order and rule of law.
March 14 should just shut up for God’s sake and stop trying to maneuver. You’re the majority!!! Just wait and let your enemy come to you!
November 29th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
I sincerely hope that there is more to this move than meets the eye! But then again what the point of a veiled strategy if everyone can see right through it?
I’m still trying to conjure up whatever hope that I still have in the March 14 leaders.
Because otherwise I’m afraid our Lebanon will be gone completely.
November 29th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
Well said, MK. Very good point about reminding us of the whole point of the Bristol gatherings, the Cedar revolution, etc. was to avoid anyone (not just the Syrians) treating Lebanon as a piece of toilet paper, and doing as one pleases with no regard for the rules.
November 29th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
Aoun has managed to “save” M14 from this stupidity with his “announcement” today. Hezbollah says Aoun has to “accept” Sleiman and then they will. Aoun says Sleiman is fine as long as … he follows the “Aoun initiative”, which says only a 2yr Presidency, a blocking VETO for the ‘opposition’ and the PM must not come from FM block and must be “consensual” - we all know what that means at this point. The ‘opposition’ picks the PM.
M14 will not accept this - so they were actually “saved” by Aoun. It’s going to be fun to see how Hezbollah handles this because Sleiman has to be their “choice”. M14 had better not delay … Hezbo will be working on Aoun.
Time to go to Parliament and vote ….. and apply some serious pressure on the Batrak. He has to approve the vote before the street fights begin in earnest. I think he will do it - his only real concern is a Maronite in the chair, he does not care who the Maronite is … don’t forget, he “protected” Lahoud. Rumours are that he was the one who put Sleiman forward.
November 29th, 2007 at 8:55 pm
“M14 will not accept this”
Did they say that or is that just your gut feeling?
I have to say, if this is an M14 ploy, I’ll be speechless.
November 29th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
Hahahahhaa. I just don’t know what to say to this. The comedy continues.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:03 am
No .. I have not heard anybody “say this”, but there has been very fast “back peddling” from M14. I’m saying IF this is Aoun’s “deal”, and IF Hezbollah stays with their stated position that Aoun makes the decision …. M14 will not take Sleiman. Why would they? They have to give in to the original most serious demand, which is the VETO. With the VETO - the ‘opposition’ has already announced they will “review” all Government decisions over the last two years and “reverse” as needed. This means the Tibunal, UN1559, and most important - UN1701.
This has only ever been a race for the “chair” for Aoun, and even he would not accept the “chair” without total control. That’s what it’s about, and what it has always been about …. control of Lebanon. None of it makes any difference without the VETO, M14 won’t give it to them, and this particular “deal” demands it as all the others have. In fact, the demands continue to grow. The real fight has always been about the Minister files - not who was President. The President does not really have the “power” to do much - he must have the Ministers also. This is why Aoun refused to join the Government in the first place, and every time since then — the VETO, the number of Ministers.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:17 am
BV & all,
I did say this was a great maneuver and that Aoun will expose himself by putting numb nut conditions to it… I have been proven right so far!
Stay tuned…
November 30th, 2007 at 12:54 am
Danny - I don’t know that it was a maneuver. I think this whole thing started with Batrak (after visits from Sleiman), and he would be willing to do anything, and ask anything to keep a “Christian Presidential” void from occurring (anything but Aoun). I also think the “nicey nice” M14 would be willing to accommodate his wishes, and the USA agreed (they have always been with 50% +1) to “aid” in a Syrian ‘deal’ for (so far, unspecified rewards). The EU is in favor of anyone who can keep UNIFIL “safe” and Sleiman seems their best shot, so they have no “problem” with him.
Hezbollah is the interesting one here. They have to want Sleiman, but they can’t afford to offend (or lose) Aoun and his block. They can’t possibly do what they want without his votes. They probably thought they had Aoun “cornered”, and he would have to “agree” with an Army General. He did - but, with conditions that can’t possibly be met.
Who won this round? M14, but only because Aoun forced them into the win. I think they were willing to “fold” for Batrak. I think the whole “Christian representation” is very important to FM and M14 and they are very “uncomfortable” without a Christian President as are most in Lebanon. This could quickly become a very serious issue with all the wild talk about Sunni Islamisation, put out by the “opposition” of course.
My opinion only.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:28 am
[…] Opening Up To Michel Sleiman | The Beirut Spring, a Lebanese Blog “Yes I am taking the course of calm because the Lebanese citizen is frightened of the possibility of confrontation and chaos, and if the opposition doesn’t consider this fear too, they’d be fools because they also have a public opinion”. - Walid J […]
November 30th, 2007 at 2:33 am
Ace,
you could be right. However, I can certainly see the coverging of a lot of interests as well as aligning of several moons…
Syria: they possibly can get their man and show USA that they can be independent of Iran.They’ll get rid of a liability called clAoun.
Iran: They’ll get rid clAoun
HA: They’ll get rid of clAoun
March 14: They’ll count on clAoun for assisted suicide!
If HA pushes a Aouny line that means Iran is showing its muscle to Syria.
Aoun is nothing but a disposable diaper. He is full of shit and it stinks!!
Again, if these dorks at March 8 err by not agreeing for Sleiman, I can see a rupture of Aoun’s block and possibly of fissure in the Amal/HA solidarity…
November 30th, 2007 at 4:19 am
The only fear that I have is to have another La7ouss.
Mr. Souleiman said with respect to Nahr AL Bared, that it is neither Syria nor the Lebanese Government is behind Al 3absi gang.
That is scary.
We need a president who will say the truth regardless of who it will implicate.We need a president who can act on the truth. We do not need someone who can make everyone happy.
Syria is behind most of the mess/crimes/wars that happened in Lebanon. We need a president who can stop that from happening again. And also, we need a president who can stand in front of Israel. He does not have to have an Iranian/Syrian citizenships to do that. He has to be 100% Lebanese.
We need a president who can ask Mr. “Divine Victory” about his weapons and money and his future plans.
I am not happy with the selection of Mr. Souleiman.
LebanesePatriot
November 30th, 2007 at 5:19 am
Ace, Danny, you may both be onto something here.
The key thing to remember, and Ace pointed this out, is that for Hezballah. This is NOT about the presidency. The presidency is a distraction and a means to an end for them. Their goal is the veto because that is how they can make sure everything that’s vital to them (tribunal, their weapons, 1701, etc.) gets reversed.
Aoun is the one who thinks this is all about the presidency (for him, it is). But he’s being strung along while his handlers (Hezb) have a far different goal in mind.
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