Tayyar.org

MP Michel Aoun issued on Friday November 23rd the following statement in a televised address:

“It is a pity that the initiative for the salvation of the country that I proposed 24 hours before the political void received a negative answer in half an hour. This clearly shows that the other parties did not even have the intention to accept it, whereas it was formulated according to the wishes of nearly all the foreign states represented in Lebanon. As a matter of fact, it was taken lightly, was not granted the necessary importance, and was considered as unconstitutional and as some kind of dictatorial order.

I reject the description it was given because it was a fair proposal as we equally divided the participation among us and the other parties. The initiative offers equal participation and tries to correct serious flaws including the electoral law and the issue of the displaced among other things.

It is the initiative of the last 24 hours because its ultimatum ends tonight at 10 PM. Tomorrow, the situation will be different: there will be no president of the republic and we will have a different position. We have set this deadline for the initiative so that the president of the republic can take the decision he deems appropriate for the situation.

It is also a pity that those who considered that its implementation requires a reform of the Constitution are ignorant of the Lebanese constitutional traditions and don’t know how to reach an understanding with other parties.
First, the nomination of the president is not unconstitutional because often the president is agreed on and he is then elected in parliament.

Second, we said that a prime minister will be nominated after consultations and I don’t see any violation of the Constitution in that.

As for the duration of the mandate of the president, we did not ask for any change in the term. What we suggested is that the president carries out the exceptional task of putting democracy on the right track because we have lost our democracy under the Siniora government; and thus this government has lost its legitimacy. Therefore, power would be rebuilt in a legal way and the elected president will leave office as soon as mission is over.

As for tomorrow, they have decided that the Siniora government would be a care taker cabinet. It has been a care taker government since November 11 and they issued more decisions than ever. We will not accept such cover up and I warn our friends in the opposition of falling in this trap they use to impose a de facto situation.

So this initiative ends at 10 PM and to the head of the majority who said that the only positive thing in it was renouncing my candidature, I tell him that after 10 PM, I am regaining my candidature and tomorrow is another day. I hope all my allies in the opposition deal with the other group on the basis that I am an unshakable candidate in the new situation.

As for those who have shown today openness and dialogue and concern for internal peace, we tell them that we would like their words to be accompanied by deeds and clear political choices. We do not want distribution of roles but we want practical steps to get out of the party that does not seek openness and dialogue.

This is what I wanted to say to the Lebanese people and tomorrow, many things will change. I hope that we face these changes with calm to reach our goals. We cannot surrender to the current economic, social and political situation and we can no longer accept a government that usurpates power.

I would like to remind the government that starting tomorrow- and knowing that is originally illegitimate- it will increase its usurpation of the power by violating the prerogatives of the president of the republic, which entails judicial and penal responsibilities in the future on all the parties.”

What, you mean from Annapolis? OK, who doesn’t want something for free. What really matters is his real “ultimate aim”: controlling Lebanon. For that he’s quite willing to break a sweat.

Smartest moves right now for 14 March:

Call out the opposition, repeat the Syrian influence mantra as much as possible, get the U.S. and France more involved and international pressure, do a majority vote but put in one of the consensus candidates, and keep going.

Smartest moves right now for 8 March:

Convince Lahoud to let Michel Sulieman run the country, get ‘Aoun to say he wants to give the vote to the Lebanese people, reject all proposals except ‘Aoun, never make up quoroum, and chill with Michel Sulieman until March 14 caves in and elects ‘Aoun.

I fear that no matter which ta’ifi wins, in the end the other side is going to be so pissed that blood will start spilling. Unless, they elect one of those consensus technocrats, but thats not happening anymore. This is hardball with ‘Aoun.

Yes, they promised to “show up”, not to vote with 50%+1, and that’s what they did.

Meantime Kalb Berri still thinks he can set dates for election, any friggin date that goes through his empty mailbox head, now Nov 30.

Remember, how many of them said that on Nov 24 Leb will have a prez no matter what? And how many times Berri said “I am optimistic”?

Why should anyone listen to anything these morons say? (Check out latest Seniora on my blog)

My remarks were in respect to Aoun and his proposal. You can read about it in more detail here.

As for the rest of your remarks…

…well I’ll just say that Aoun is not as smart as you might think he is. He is, in fact, Syria’s destructive useful idiot [a term coined by Tony].

In a brilliant coup of useful idiocy this week, he managed to provide the Syrians with the plausible deniability they craved and shift all the blame for hampering of the Presidential election from them, to him. All of it.

In the end it won’t hold…but that just goes to show you how stupid the man really is…stupid…not smart.

Where did you find that as a proposal concerning Michel Edde?

I was just wondering.

At first I thought they were going to elect Edde, but I don’t think so anymore. ‘Aoun is being super political, he is an extremely smart politician – no matter what your take on him, he is shrewd.

He has been waiting 20 years to be President, he wants it now, or in 2 years. He can’t wait another 6. Remember when Syria was sitting in Lebanon trying to kill him and “Shaheed Taif” (using the LBC’s term) Rene Mu’awwad was a President? ‘Aoun was trying to be President even when they were trying to kill him.

He has been using every card at his disposal to make it look like he is the one. First he said he never left March 14t, and yet makes an accord with HA. Then, he called for “elections directly by the people,” because he knew they would reject and he had a strong possibility of winning. When March 14th said no, he said that they were against Democracy. That was smart move no. 1.

Then, he called for a consensus President, and March 14th was a bit iffy. He started arguing with the Sfeir list saying it didn’t represent the Shi’a on al-Jazeera, and again made it look like the blame wasn’t on him. Smart move no. 2 – starting playing hardball but make it look like its the other guy’s fault.

Then was his move yesterday, when he said that he’d chose the President from another party and Sa’d al-Hariri would chose the PM. He knew that they’d say no. He was basically saying either you make me President, or I chose the President. He knew they’d say no. Smart move no. 3.

So then he makes it look like its all their fault and he exhausted all possible options, so they can only pick him as President. The other side can’t do anything without the opposition coming. HA doesn’t really want anyone other than ‘Aoun, although Michel Sulieman and Edde might be a choice. ‘Aoun knows that if March 8th doesn’t come to the vote then Lahoud will stay President or it will be given to Michel Slueieman.

March 14th knows they can’t vote without quorum, and if they try and get a majority vote then that will start an un-recognized government and chaos.

So in the end they will have to either sit there and take President Michel Suleiman and Lahoud, which they hate more than ‘Aoun, or ‘Aoun. Then ‘Aoun will take over.

Or they will get help from America and start some big mashakil.

So ‘Aoun has pretty much taken over the government. I’m telling you, in the end they are going to put ‘Aoun as President and Sa’d al-Hariri as Prime Minister. ‘Aoun doesn’t care as long as he wins. He is the master politician, he has been working on this for 20 years, and he switches allies and enemies just over increasing his leverage.

Mark my words, ‘Aoun as President and Sa’d al-Hariri as Prime Minister, or Civil War. Those are the only possibilities right now. I’ve been predicting Civil War since the 2006 War.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

What ever M14 spirit you guy hang on to died the day they elected berry.

In all cases, if they do not elect a president, if they’d rather leave Lebanon without a president rather than elect one with a 50%+1 majority wouldn’t that be an acceptance that the quorum is in fact 2/3rds? I mean after all the shouting that they will not accept el faragh and that 50%+1 is their last option it might turn out it was never an option in the first place!

I wonder where that puts all the “experts” who insisted on the obviousness that 50%+1 are enough.

Of course it is still possible they’ll grow cojones and elect someone… hehehe just kidding.

That is where Lebanon enters the equation. The Syrian have allowed rumors to spread that they will not go to Annapolis because there was no reference to the Golan in the invitation. On the other hand, a week ago they agreed on a consensual presidential candidate for Lebanon, and they allowed Khaled Meshal to give an interview on Hardtalk where he was very conciliatory regarding Annapolis. What does this tell us? Well, it tells us that the Syrians are keeping their options open on Annapolis. Presumably to leave them time to extract the best price for their participation.
The latest Aounist proposal reflects exactly that; it has inflated the price of the Syrian participation to Annapolis. It is a little bit like a kilim seller in the Souk Hammidieh who at the last minute raises the price of an “Ajannib’s” long coveted object of purchase.
The main question is whether the US is willing to pay Syria’s price? Will they leave the carpet seller’s bazaar shouting “to hell with him and his kilims”, or will they enter a last bargaining round in order to purchase that beautiful kilim which they are sure will be loved by their friends and foes on capitol hill? Arguably the US will enter a last bargaining round. They will accept to put the Golan on the Annapolis’ agenda (or at least make it part of the process that will be kick-started there), in return Syria will have to satisfy itself with a 6-year term of a Sfeir nominee or a third party unknown (that will be Ghanem, Edde, or Kattar).

The majority’s decision to go to the parliament therefore makes perfect sense. It puts pressure on Syria, which will then more readily accept an American concession. Bashar the grandmaster kilim seller will let his kilim go in return for a handsome compensation.

There is still one unknown: Hezbollah and Iran. They do not sell kilims, but finely woven Persian carpets. My hunch here is that Iran has never been as isolated as today for the last 3 years (China, Russia, the US, and France+Britain+60% Germany are all aligned). Iran is not in a position to co-opt Bashar, who is still reeling from the subliminal message conveyed by the Israeli air strike in early September. Remember, the Iranians are thought to have the same radar facilities.
Bashar is now in a race with Iran to open-up to the US first. Lebanon’s presidential election and Annapolis are his opportunities and he will take them, because he his getting a very good deal (a relatively weak non-March 14 president, and a place on the table of the big ones from which he can leverage much more power than from his current parasitic position) .

The dices are thrown and God does not play with dices.

Syria has decided that it would accept to leave the Iranian axis and re-align with the Saudis and Jordan at the condition that they are allowed relentless control of Hezbollah. Why, do I think so? Firstly, because the ultimate aim of Assad is to regain the Golan, the Sea of Galilea and its water at no cost. The only price he is willing to pay for that is support to Hezbollah (+ alliance with Iran) and Hamas. Hence, Assad needs to retain control over Lebanon’s presidency in order to better regulate (i.e. protect, nurture, and restrain) Hezbollah. Second, the US and Syria have quietly warmed up in the last 3-4 months. Their tacit cooperation can be spotted in many area, where it is the clearest is in Iraq. The US success in Anbar provinces and in their ability to eliminate terrorist HR-smuggling cells (see IHT of 22/11/2007) are a direct result of Syria’s at least passive collaboration.