“Thoughts? reactions?”

Yes, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Maybe it is le miracle that Ashton (thank you Shunkleash) was talking about.

coup d’etat?

Aoun is in a strong position, though I never wanted him, personally (blog).

He is taking a great stand in withdrawing his candidacy, and we should stand for it. For he has assured no civil strife in Lebanon as a worst case scenario. We no longer live in that. No Lebanese is willing to fight his fellow Lebanese to disarm Lebanese for the sake of Israel?

Nor do I accept whatsoever any foreign nation to dwell

Edde is our man!
He comes from the Maronite Elites, a well educated and expressive intellectual.
The rude fact is, Aoun has step aside to “safeguard” Lebanon for the courtesy of someone older than him. :-)

Go to parliament and elect a new prez!!! March 14 have to show that they have big Kohones. they are the majority. It is time that they act like one! HA is a goddamned armed militia…so whatever you do, if they do not like it they extort you for more. STOP the madness! Call the stupid lunatic’s bluff. Let’s dance…

Militia or not, Hezbollah and its allies are certainly running in circles around the sluggish March 14. Sure, it’s a good move to go for elections and call their bluff, but declaring it just one day before the deadline that was postponed time and again is too late. Maybe if M14 had not been so hesitant to declare their intentions publicly, they’d have been in a better negotiation position to actually get the 2/3rds to participate for a reasonable compromise.

“Reasonable compromise”, what is that then? I’d point back to the Metn by-elections, which I think is one of the cleanest victories for the democratic institutions that March 14 has achieved recently. In that case, M14 said they’d have an election according to a constitutional timeline (ok, over half a year late for Metn but not in Beirut) and they went full steam ahead with it. And despite the opposition saying that they’ll boycott the elections and they’re illegitimate because Lahoud didn’t sign or whatever, eventually they gave up and the elections were held and nobody disputed the results. I only wish that March 14 would have shown the same kind of resolve with the presidential elections.

Better late than never I guess. It has finally dawned on Mar. 14 leaders that they are about to lose evthg in the process of consensus. First Mar. 8 is negotiating the presidency, tomorrow the Prime Minister, next day the Army commander, then the rest of the Military positions. Better cut through the crap.

Are you kidding me Court Fool???

Did you actually read his proposal?

Hizballah keeps its weapons, they get a blocking third in cabinet, M14 loses the PM post, and the majority in parliament gets dissolved through a Syria-friendly constitutional council…

…great stand? More like Syria’s stand.

M14 should have put their own plan on the table a while, ago and threatened to do what they CLAIM they will do tomorrow on Nov 14 (when the Chamber should have met of its “own accord”).

Sfeir should have been countered on his idiotic 2/3 idea and/or told (discreetly) to shut the fuck up.

The foreign diplomats’ frigging circus should have been shut down a long time ago.

Aoun plan is too much and promotes obstruction, M14’s current action is too little too late.

Nobody can get their timing right in Lebanon. This M 14 plan would have been perfect 10 days ago. Now they all waited too long and they all look like shit begging Kouchner and Assad and Amr Coussa etc. I just hope it does not lead to bloodshed.

Alea jacta est.

Are they planning to elect a President with the simple majority?

If yes, then good for March 14. I was beginning to doubt their willingness to defend the Cedar Revolution.

I so much wrote on this blog in regards to the presidntial strife. Since hariri went to the US together with Joumblat. I said then that the US is so weak in the region that it cannot guarantee a cover to 14M in case they elect a president with 50+1 Majority. I so much would like a persident from M14 but that is impossible with the regional political wrestling. Let me be a bit blunt here. the M14 campaign failed. It was such unorganized and didn’t seize the historical moment with courage. Its too late to weep and wail. M8 are the stronger on the ground. Any time now Nasrallah can gather 1Million supporters on the streets to show the world and public opinion the majority who can topple any president elected. Can M14 today gather few thousands I doubt it. Syria is stronger than ever when the US is being offered security in Iraq by the Iranians and europe has convinced the US of the primary role of Syria in the sucess of Anapolis.

The solutions in lebanon in my opinion will come after Anapolis. There are ONLY 2 solutions and both unfortunately are bad. Now its the military role in Lebanon, Sleiman will rule on the ground to secure a safe passage from now until the end of Anapolis. The Outcome of the peace conference will decide.
1. confrontation (military) the US together with israel will provoke or stimulate HZB into a confrontation. On the basis of (if Syria gets involved) will be a less costly war than with Iran. This war will be desastrous. If the US and Israel win they would have succeeded in minimizing the damage iran could do.
2. The big DEAL: Iran will get its part in Iraq by stopping uranium enrichment and Syria will Finally be given the warranty(the tribunal will not affect the regime or won’t blame the syrian regime for it. (If this senario prevails, we will see scatered clashes and the four generals imprisonned now will be released by a swift commando intrusion releasing the only convicts and this way the int’l tribunal will be cleaverly obliterated.

Is it surprising that the majority answered no? Of course not! One needs to see Aoun’s proposal and the majority rebuke in the light of a major silent battle between the US and Syria. Thinking that the majority’s decision is a sign of bravado and courage is preposterous.

Syria has decided that it would accept to leave the Iranian axis and re-align with the Saudis and Jordan at the condition that they are allowed relentless control of Hezbollah. Why, do I think so? Firstly, because the ultimate aim of Assad is to regain the Golan, the Sea of Galilea and its water at no cost. The only price he is willing to pay for that is support to Hezbollah (+ alliance with Iran) and Hamas. Hence, Assad needs to retain control over Lebanon’s presidency in order to better regulate (i.e. protect, nurture, and restrain) Hezbollah. Second, the US and Syria have quietly warmed up in the last 3-4 months. Their tacit cooperation can be spotted in many area, where it is the clearest is in Iraq. The US success in Anbar provinces and in their ability to eliminate terrorist HR-smuggling cells (see IHT of 22/11/2007) are a direct result of Syria’s at least passive collaboration.

Syria’s second bargaining chip after Hezbollah is the control of Hamas through Khaled Meshal, and at the same stroke the reason why their presence in Annapolis is so important to the Bush administration. Bush seems to have realized that his only way not to go to jail (or enter the annals of history as the worst US president) after he leaves office is to boost the republican’s standing by 1) stabilising Iraq, and isolate Iran 2) revamp the US’ image in the Muslim world. In order to do the first he needs the full support of Saudi Arabia and Syria (Provided Iran and Saudi Arabia are not intent on a Sunni-Shiia bloodbath that is enough). As to the second objective, Bush needs to give the Palestinians some element of just peace. That “some element of just peace” is exactly what Annapolis is about to kick-start. To be half-way credible Annapolis will require the presence of the Saudis (first and foremost), but also of the Syrian (else Hamas could easily provoke the Israeli into a full scale, but also bloody, invasion of Gaza that would nip the peacenik efforts of Abbas in the bud).

That is where Lebanon enters the equation. The Syrian have allowed rumors to spread that they will not go to Annapolis because there was no reference to the Golan in the invitation. On the other hand, a week ago they agreed on a consensual presidential candidate for Lebanon, and they allowed Khaled Meshal to give an interview on Hardtalk where he was very conciliatory regarding Annapolis. What does this tell us? Well, it tells us that the Syrians are keeping their options open on Annapolis. Presumably to leave them time to extract the best price for their participation.
The latest Aounist proposal reflects exactly that; it has inflated the price of the Syrian participation to Annapolis. It is a little bit like a kilim seller in the Souk Hammidieh who at the last minute raises the price of an “Ajannib’s” long coveted object of purchase.
The main question is whether the US is willing to pay Syria’s price? Will they leave the carpet seller’s bazaar shouting “to hell with him and his kilims”, or will they enter a last bargaining round in order to purchase that beautiful kilim which they are sure will be loved by their friends and foes on capitol hill? Arguably the US will enter a last bargaining round. They will accept to put the Golan on the Annapolis’ agenda (or at least make it part of the process that will be kick-started there), in return Syria will have to satisfy itself with a 6-year term of a Sfeir nominee or a third party unknown (that will be Ghanem, Edde, or Kattar).

The majority’s decision to go to the parliament therefore makes perfect sense. It puts pressure on Syria, which will then more readily accept an American concession. Bashar the grandmaster kilim seller will let his kilim go in return for a handsome compensation.

There is still one unknown: Hezbollah and Iran. They do not sell kilims, but finely woven Persian carpets. My hunch here is that Iran has never been as isolated as today for the last 3 years (China, Russia, the US, and France+Britain+60% Germany are all aligned). Iran is not in a position to co-opt Bashar, who is still reeling from the subliminal message conveyed by the Israeli air strike in early September. Remember, the Iranians are thought to have the same radar facilities.
Bashar is now in a race with Iran to open-up to the US first. Lebanon’s presidential election and Annapolis are his opportunities and he will take them, because he his getting a very good deal (a relatively weak non-March 14 president, and a place on the table of the big ones from which he can leverage much more power than from his current parasitic position) .

The dices are thrown and God does not play with dices.

Is it surprising that the majority answered no? Of course not! One needs to see Aoun’s proposal and the majority rebuke in the light of a major silent battle between the US and Syria. Thinking that the majority’s decision is a sign of bravado and courage is preposterous.

Syria has decided that it would accept to leave the Iranian axis and re-align with the Saudis and Jordan at the condition that they are allowed relentless control of Hezbollah. Why, do I think so? Firstly, because the ultimate aim of Assad is to regain the Golan, the Sea of Galilea and its water at no cost. The only price he is willing to pay for that is support to Hezbollah (+ alliance with Iran) and Hamas. Hence, Assad needs to retain control over Lebanon’s presidency in order to better regulate (i.e. protect, nurture, and restrain) Hezbollah. Second, the US and Syria have quietly warmed up in the last 3-4 months. Their tacit cooperation can be spotted in many area, where it is the clearest is in Iraq. The US success in Anbar provinces and in their ability to eliminate terrorist HR-smuggling cells (see IHT of 22/11/2007) are a direct result of Syria’s at least passive collaboration.

Syria’s second bargaining chip after Hezbollah is the control of Hamas through Khaled Meshal, and at the same stroke the reason why their presence in Annapolis is so important to the Bush administration. Bush seems to have realized that his only way not to go to jail (or enter the annals of history as the worst US president) after he leaves office is to boost the republican’s standing by 1) stabilising Iraq, and isolate Iran 2) revamp the US’ image in the Muslim world. In order to do the first he needs the full support of Saudi Arabia and Syria (Provided Iran and Saudi Arabia are not intent on a Sunni-Shiia bloodbath that is enough). As to the second objective, Bush needs to give the Palestinians some element of just peace. That “some element of just peace” is exactly what Annapolis is about to kick-start. To be half-way credible Annapolis will require the presence of the Saudis (first and foremost), but also of the Syrian (else Hamas could easily provoke the Israeli into a full scale, but also bloody, invasion of Gaza that would nip the peacenik efforts of Abbas in the bud).

That is where Lebanon enters the equation. The Syrian have allowed rumors to spread that they will not go to Annapolis because there was no reference to the Golan in the invitation. On the other hand, a week ago they agreed on a consensual presidential candidate for Lebanon, and they allowed Khaled Meshal to give an interview on Hardtalk where he was very conciliatory regarding Annapolis. What does this tell us? Well, it tells us that the Syrians are keeping their options open on Annapolis. Presumably to leave them time to extract the best price for their participation.
The latest Aounist proposal reflects exactly that; it has inflated the price of the Syrian participation to Annapolis. It is a little bit like a kilim seller in the Souk Hammidieh who at the last minute raises the price of an “Ajannib’s” long coveted object of purchase.
The main question is whether the US is willing to pay Syria’s price? Will they leave the carpet seller’s bazaar shouting “to hell with him and his kilims”, or will they enter a last bargaining round in order to purchase that beautiful kilim which they are sure will be loved by their friends and foes on capitol hill? Arguably the US will enter a last bargaining round. They will accept to put the Golan on the Annapolis’ agenda (or at least make it part of the process that will be kick-started there), in return Syria will have to satisfy itself with a 6-year term of a Sfeir nominee or a third party unknown (that will be Ghanem, Edde, or Kattar).

The majority’s decision to go to the parliament therefore makes perfect sense. It puts pressure on Syria, which will then more readily accept an American concession. Bashar the grandmaster kilim seller will let his kilim go in return for a handsome compensation.

There is still one unknown: Hezbollah and Iran. They do not sell kilims, but finely woven Persian carpets. My hunch here is that Iran has never been as isolated as today for the last 3 years (China, Russia, the US, and France+Britain+60% Germany are all aligned). Iran is not in a position to co-opt Bashar, who is still reeling from the subliminal message conveyed by the Israeli air strike in early September. Remember, the Iranians are thought to have the same radar facilities.
Bashar is now in a race with Iran to open-up to the US first. Lebanon’s presidential election and Annapolis are his opportunities and he will take them, because he his getting a very good deal (a relatively weak non-March 14 president, and a place on the table of the big ones from which he can leverage much more power than from his current parasitic position) .

The dices are thrown and God does not play with dices.

I second super dude’s reaction.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

What ever M14 spirit you guy hang on to died the day they elected berry.

In all cases, if they do not elect a president, if they’d rather leave Lebanon without a president rather than elect one with a 50%+1 majority wouldn’t that be an acceptance that the quorum is in fact 2/3rds? I mean after all the shouting that they will not accept el faragh and that 50%+1 is their last option it might turn out it was never an option in the first place!

I wonder where that puts all the “experts” who insisted on the obviousness that 50%+1 are enough.

Of course it is still possible they’ll grow cojones and elect someone… hehehe just kidding.

Hey Blacksmith Jade,

Where did you find that as a proposal concerning Michel Edde?

I was just wondering.

At first I thought they were going to elect Edde, but I don’t think so anymore. ‘Aoun is being super political, he is an extremely smart politician - no matter what your take on him, he is shrewd.

He has been waiting 20 years to be President, he wants it now, or in 2 years. He can’t wait another 6. Remember when Syria was sitting in Lebanon trying to kill him and “Shaheed Taif” (using the LBC’s term) Rene Mu’awwad was a President? ‘Aoun was trying to be President even when they were trying to kill him.

He has been using every card at his disposal to make it look like he is the one. First he said he never left March 14t, and yet makes an accord with HA. Then, he called for “elections directly by the people,” because he knew they would reject and he had a strong possibility of winning. When March 14th said no, he said that they were against Democracy. That was smart move no. 1.

Then, he called for a consensus President, and March 14th was a bit iffy. He started arguing with the Sfeir list saying it didn’t represent the Shi’a on al-Jazeera, and again made it look like the blame wasn’t on him. Smart move no. 2 - starting playing hardball but make it look like its the other guy’s fault.

Then was his move yesterday, when he said that he’d chose the President from another party and Sa’d al-Hariri would chose the PM. He knew that they’d say no. He was basically saying either you make me President, or I chose the President. He knew they’d say no. Smart move no. 3.

So then he makes it look like its all their fault and he exhausted all possible options, so they can only pick him as President. The other side can’t do anything without the opposition coming. HA doesn’t really want anyone other than ‘Aoun, although Michel Sulieman and Edde might be a choice. ‘Aoun knows that if March 8th doesn’t come to the vote then Lahoud will stay President or it will be given to Michel Slueieman.

March 14th knows they can’t vote without quorum, and if they try and get a majority vote then that will start an un-recognized government and chaos.

So in the end they will have to either sit there and take President Michel Suleiman and Lahoud, which they hate more than ‘Aoun, or ‘Aoun. Then ‘Aoun will take over.

Or they will get help from America and start some big mashakil.

So ‘Aoun has pretty much taken over the government. I’m telling you, in the end they are going to put ‘Aoun as President and Sa’d al-Hariri as Prime Minister. ‘Aoun doesn’t care as long as he wins. He is the master politician, he has been working on this for 20 years, and he switches allies and enemies just over increasing his leverage.

Mark my words, ‘Aoun as President and Sa’d al-Hariri as Prime Minister, or Civil War. Those are the only possibilities right now. I’ve been predicting Civil War since the 2006 War.

Hey Abu Hatem,

My remarks were in respect to Aoun and his proposal. You can read about it in more detail here.

As for the rest of your remarks…

…well I’ll just say that Aoun is not as smart as you might think he is. He is, in fact, Syria’s destructive useful idiot [a term coined by Tony].

In a brilliant coup of useful idiocy this week, he managed to provide the Syrians with the plausible deniability they craved and shift all the blame for hampering of the Presidential election from them, to him. All of it.

In the end it won’t hold…but that just goes to show you how stupid the man really is…stupid…not smart.

As suspected M14 threatened and did nothing.

Yes, they promised to “show up”, not to vote with 50%+1, and that’s what they did.

Meantime Kalb Berri still thinks he can set dates for election, any friggin date that goes through his empty mailbox head, now Nov 30.

Remember, how many of them said that on Nov 24 Leb will have a prez no matter what? And how many times Berri said “I am optimistic”?

Why should anyone listen to anything these morons say? (Check out latest Seniora on my blog)

Yeah, today was pretty crazy, no lie. But Lahoud said he’s stepping down. So they have to wait till after the nice cuddly-wuddly in Annapolis with everyone to see where to go.

Smartest moves right now for 14 March:

Call out the opposition, repeat the Syrian influence mantra as much as possible, get the U.S. and France more involved and international pressure, do a majority vote but put in one of the consensus candidates, and keep going.

Smartest moves right now for 8 March:

Convince Lahoud to let Michel Sulieman run the country, get ‘Aoun to say he wants to give the vote to the Lebanese people, reject all proposals except ‘Aoun, never make up quoroum, and chill with Michel Sulieman until March 14 caves in and elects ‘Aoun.

I fear that no matter which ta’ifi wins, in the end the other side is going to be so pissed that blood will start spilling. Unless, they elect one of those consensus technocrats, but thats not happening anymore. This is hardball with ‘Aoun.

“Firstly, because the ultimate aim of Assad is to regain the Golan, the Sea of Galilea and its water at no cost.”

What, you mean from Annapolis? OK, who doesn’t want something for free. What really matters is his real “ultimate aim”: controlling Lebanon. For that he’s quite willing to break a sweat.

MP Michel Aoun to “OTV” on 23/11/07

Tayyar.org

MP Michel Aoun issued on Friday November 23rd the following statement in a televised address:

“It is a pity that the initiative for the salvation of the country that I proposed 24 hours before the political void received a negative answer in half an hour. This clearly shows that the other parties did not even have the intention to accept it, whereas it was formulated according to the wishes of nearly all the foreign states represented in Lebanon. As a matter of fact, it was taken lightly, was not granted the necessary importance, and was considered as unconstitutional and as some kind of dictatorial order.

I reject the description it was given because it was a fair proposal as we equally divided the participation among us and the other parties. The initiative offers equal participation and tries to correct serious flaws including the electoral law and the issue of the displaced among other things.

It is the initiative of the last 24 hours because its ultimatum ends tonight at 10 PM. Tomorrow, the situation will be different: there will be no president of the republic and we will have a different position. We have set this deadline for the initiative so that the president of the republic can take the decision he deems appropriate for the situation.

It is also a pity that those who considered that its implementation requires a reform of the Constitution are ignorant of the Lebanese constitutional traditions and don’t know how to reach an understanding with other parties.
First, the nomination of the president is not unconstitutional because often the president is agreed on and he is then elected in parliament.

Second, we said that a prime minister will be nominated after consultations and I don’t see any violation of the Constitution in that.

As for the duration of the mandate of the president, we did not ask for any change in the term. What we suggested is that the president carries out the exceptional task of putting democracy on the right track because we have lost our democracy under the Siniora government; and thus this government has lost its legitimacy. Therefore, power would be rebuilt in a legal way and the elected president will leave office as soon as mission is over.

As for tomorrow, they have decided that the Siniora government would be a care taker cabinet. It has been a care taker government since November 11 and they issued more decisions than ever. We will not accept such cover up and I warn our friends in the opposition of falling in this trap they use to impose a de facto situation.

So this initiative ends at 10 PM and to the head of the majority who said that the only positive thing in it was renouncing my candidature, I tell him that after 10 PM, I am regaining my candidature and tomorrow is another day. I hope all my allies in the opposition deal with the other group on the basis that I am an unshakable candidate in the new situation.

As for those who have shown today openness and dialogue and concern for internal peace, we tell them that we would like their words to be accompanied by deeds and clear political choices. We do not want distribution of roles but we want practical steps to get out of the party that does not seek openness and dialogue.

This is what I wanted to say to the Lebanese people and tomorrow, many things will change. I hope that we face these changes with calm to reach our goals. We cannot surrender to the current economic, social and political situation and we can no longer accept a government that usurpates power.

I would like to remind the government that starting tomorrow- and knowing that is originally illegitimate- it will increase its usurpation of the power by violating the prerogatives of the president of the republic, which entails judicial and penal responsibilities in the future on all the parties.”

I have a question, after we vote, is it true that another body decides the president?? if so may i know the name of the body!