Good post Mus!

I think that this is what makes Aoun popular. He is not affraid.

Though I doubt that he would send the army to disarm Hezbollah by force, I think that he would be one who can create a framework of trust to convince the shias that they don’t need guns to be properly represented and protected by a central government.

I can’t think of someone else who can do this - building trust.

Sami:
Aoun will have no control over Hiz who take their orders directly from Iran. We sure don’t want to see the Army fighting Hizz, that would be a disaster. The Hiz solution will have to come from international power (negotiations over nuclear issues) with lebanese implementation.

A vacuum could be a possiblity. Aoun feels, I guess, is to whomever takes on the seat,ought to have some representaion by the Lebanese Christians and of course as Lebanese in general.

But for me personally, he has done his great achievement, namely allying the FPM with Hezbollah to guarantee no civil war in Lebanon, regardless if his movement fully agreed with it.

Does anybody here believe that Edde, or any President able to disarm Hezbollah?

The Army will not disarm Hezbollah, the order is unimaginable to even mention.

In a way it’s ok that Aoun rebuffed Sarkozy. Sarkozy was completely bamboozled by Assad who told him he could get Hezbollah to vote for Edde, but not Aoun. It was such an obvious trap, but the hapless Sarkozy has no clue and so he called Aoun to push him to vote for Edde.

The French are so incompetent it’s scary.

So Aoun just agreed on being the “king-maker” instead of the “king” … let’s watch every one retract the king-maker offer :-)

Chaos, a state that Iran is looking to spread to prepare the arrival of Mehdi. This what we’re experiencing in Lebanon!

Oh yeah, Sarko and even Bush, they are incompetent in ME politic. They’re too much blinded with short term Chess game, ignoring the Weiki long term planning (Chinese strategic school of thought and game).

March 14 should not rely on foreign support only. They need to be stronger and less corrupted on the ground. Ouwat, Kataeb, Ishterakié and Mustaqbal, in alliance with Kurds and Jamaa islamié, should have an organized and well behaving militias on the ground. This will create deterrence power and permit avoiding the current chaos and potential civil war.

Would have they done that earlier, assassination could have stopped and Hizballah will be sitting on the table to ”really” negotiate.

As for oxymoron ayatollah Aoun, no more comments.

Stop worrying and analyzing,
We need a March 14 president khalas.

You ask why? Simple, in two years there will be elections, which March 14 might lose because of the excellent propaganda done by March 8 and ruining the credibility of the government because of their acts, and then a March 8 government will be formed (no way a national unity), and then March 8 will have Berri, goverment, and half president.
That means goodbye cedar revolution, and we will all forget about all the murders that happened.

[...] عن الشائعات, واحتمال تأجيل الجلسة الانتخابية, هذا ما تقوله مدونة ربيع بيروت [انكليزي]: معظم ما يقال وبكتب في لبنان هو أكثر من المرجح أن يكون مجرد شائعات. على سبيل المثال, كل واحد من الآملين بالرئاسة تلقى مكالمات “لتهنئته” بـ “الأخبار الجيدة”. لكن أحدى المعلومات تبدو أنها تسريبة أكثر من كونها شائعات. إنها بيان من عدد من السياسيين أن جلسة التصويت غداً “يمكن” ان تؤجل. [...]

Sami, you’re either dreaming or just being deceptive. Hizbollah’s primary concern is the retention of an armed militia at its disposal. All of its efforts are going into that, as well as improving the militia’s position on the ground. “Fair representation” is merely a political tool towards that end.

It will take a drastic change in the leadership and direction of Hizbollah as a social movement to drop this agenda.

MP Michel Aoun to “OTV” on 23/11/07

Tayyar.org

MP Michel Aoun issued on Friday November 23rd the following statement in a televised address:

“It is a pity that the initiative for the salvation of the country that I proposed 24 hours before the political void received a negative answer in half an hour. This clearly shows that the other parties did not even have the intention to accept it, whereas it was formulated according to the wishes of nearly all the foreign states represented in Lebanon. As a matter of fact, it was taken lightly, was not granted the necessary importance, and was considered as unconstitutional and as some kind of dictatorial order.

I reject the description it was given because it was a fair proposal as we equally divided the participation among us and the other parties. The initiative offers equal participation and tries to correct serious flaws including the electoral law and the issue of the displaced among other things.

It is the initiative of the last 24 hours because its ultimatum ends tonight at 10 PM. Tomorrow, the situation will be different: there will be no president of the republic and we will have a different position. We have set this deadline for the initiative so that the president of the republic can take the decision he deems appropriate for the situation.

It is also a pity that those who considered that its implementation requires a reform of the Constitution are ignorant of the Lebanese constitutional traditions and don’t know how to reach an understanding with other parties.
First, the nomination of the president is not unconstitutional because often the president is agreed on and he is then elected in parliament.

Second, we said that a prime minister will be nominated after consultations and I don’t see any violation of the Constitution in that.

As for the duration of the mandate of the president, we did not ask for any change in the term. What we suggested is that the president carries out the exceptional task of putting democracy on the right track because we have lost our democracy under the Siniora government; and thus this government has lost its legitimacy. Therefore, power would be rebuilt in a legal way and the elected president will leave office as soon as mission is over.

As for tomorrow, they have decided that the Siniora government would be a care taker cabinet. It has been a care taker government since November 11 and they issued more decisions than ever. We will not accept such cover up and I warn our friends in the opposition of falling in this trap they use to impose a de facto situation.

So this initiative ends at 10 PM and to the head of the majority who said that the only positive thing in it was renouncing my candidature, I tell him that after 10 PM, I am regaining my candidature and tomorrow is another day. I hope all my allies in the opposition deal with the other group on the basis that I am an unshakable candidate in the new situation.

As for those who have shown today openness and dialogue and concern for internal peace, we tell them that we would like their words to be accompanied by deeds and clear political choices. We do not want distribution of roles but we want practical steps to get out of the party that does not seek openness and dialogue.

This is what I wanted to say to the Lebanese people and tomorrow, many things will change. I hope that we face these changes with calm to reach our goals. We cannot surrender to the current economic, social and political situation and we can no longer accept a government that usurpates power.

I would like to remind the government that starting tomorrow- and knowing that is originally illegitimate- it will increase its usurpation of the power by violating the prerogatives of the president of the republic, which entails judicial and penal responsibilities in the future on all the parties.”

[...] Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun sees an opportunity to whipp up sectarian sentiments against Mr. Seniora and paint him as the usurper of Christian rights. The General has been trying to position himself as the strong protector of the Christians. His latest gimmick is a plea to all “Christian political, spiritual, economic, Labor and media personalities” to come to his house for consultations. [...]

[...] • In November 22, I wrote on how Lebanon moved into “Vacuum Management” [...]