Why the presidential polls that consistently rank Michel Aoun as #1 are inherently flawed and misleading.

Today, Albalad revealed yet another presidential ( yet admitingly unscientific) poll with a strong showing by Mr. Aoun. He got 53% of the votes, with Mr. Geagea being a distant second with only 12% of the votes. The rest of the voices are scattered among 10 other candidates.

Is this the end of the story? Should we subscribe to the theory that Aoun is the most popular choice for the presidency?

While Aoun is indeed very popular, and could be the most popular presidential candidate, the poll is misleading for two reasons. The first is that a big bulk of that 53% of voters is made of Hezbollah supporters, who still don’t know who Hezbollah’s “secret candidate” is. But the second reason is the more important one.

Imagine a poll taking place in an American newspaper, with the American people having to pick one of the following names for the presidency: Rudy Guiliani, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich and Christopher Dodd. What would the results look like?

For those of you unfamiliar with American politics, Guiliani is the only Republican while all the others are Democrats. The results could probably look something like this: Guiliani: 49% , Clinton: 22%, Obama 14%, Edwards 9%, Biden 3%…etc. You get the picture. Could we conclude then that Guiliani is the most popular Presidential candidate with Clinton a distant second?

The truth of the matter is this: If March 14 decide on their candidate and March 8 decide on theirs and we had a poll, it will be a neck to neck with leads slimmer than the error margin. But that doesn’t stop the spinners who love to publicize Aoun’s results.

Previous Beirut Spring posts:

• In September of last year, I wrote calling on western journalists to stop saying that “Lebanese Christians are allied with Hezbollah” • The following December, I brought up two polls that tried to probe the elusive Christian public opinion • Last August, I wrote a post that condemns March 14‘s spinning of the Metn elections’ results as a loss for Michel Aoun

For a second-tier candidate, Mr. Robert Ghanem seems surprisingly well prepared.

He has made it to the top three “consensus candidates” list, if we are to believe the unnamed Lebanese official who told AFP that the Patriarch’s list, in addition to the political contenders, Harb, Lahoud & Aoun, includes Messrs Demianos Kattar, Joseph Tarabeih & Robert Ghanem.

I went on to check Mr. Ghanem’s website and was surprised at how polished it was. A bit too polished if you ask me, complete with pictures of him alongside world leaders and professionally shot portrait pictures (above) that are ready to  replace that of Emile Lahoud.

What is the attraction of Mr. Ghanem? To get an idea, check the intro of his presidential program:

Based on the concept of responsible freedom, and feelings of duty, I call on everyone to take a moment to reflect on this vision, which I wanted to be comprehensive, and enter a profound and serious dialogue blessed by good intentions and sound will. This is so that we can arrive at strong convictions, adhere to them, and be guided by them in saving and resurrecting Lebanon, and preserving its rightful role and message in the world.

Too many flowers, no substance whatsoever. But that’s precisely the point. Could he be the next President? What do you think?

Also read:

Lebanon’s Presidential Front-Runners (New York Times)

Related Beirut Spring post:

• I noticed a couple of days ago that Mr. Demianos Kattar’s name was buzzing around, so I tried to find out more..