Lee Smith, a man who knows a good deal about Lebanon and who has visited our country many times, wrote a piece in the Weekly Standard on why March 14 is now accepting Mr. Suleiman’s Presidency.

The question the article attempts to answer is this one: “Suleiman is Damascus’s number one choice to fill the now vacant spot. So why have Hariri and his colleagues, including Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt and leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea, made an about face?”

His answer is in the article…

The people in Lebanon seem to be thrilled by the prospect of a Sleiman Presidency.

Unplugging the news channel. Beirut graffiti…

I confess, my sample wasn’t in any way scientific. The people I asked about Mr. Suleiman were my Grandfather, two aunts, and many random people in my extended network. But the trend was clear. It doesn’t matter if the people I asked were partisan or apolitical, they all gave more or less the same answer: “That’s the best thing our political class came up with in months”.

Cedar Revolution intellectuals are indignant. The foreign press sees Mr. Suleiman as an American concession to Syria. But on the ground, people appear to be overjoyed by what they perceive as the end of a bitter political deadlock. Retailers see this as the key to a succesful Christmas season, the diaspora can finally hope to buy that ticket to Lebanon and moms can finally hope send their children to schools without having to buy each and every one of them a cell phone.

My neighbor Joumana spoke for many people when she said that she no longer watches the news. She and her husband are only watching the Cartoon Network, she told me.

“Any president is better than no president” the careful are saying. But many are also going out on a limb. “Mr. Suleiman is not any president, he’s the best man out there for the job” said a confident 80 year old. But that seems too ambitious. Anyway, only history can judge…

Foreboding lets some March 14 members accept the candidacy of the Army’s chief.

Man in charge?

“Yes I am taking the course of calm because the Lebanese citizen is frightened of the possibility of confrontation and chaos, and if the opposition doesn’t consider this fear too, they’d be fools because they also have a public opinion”. Thus introduced ex-hawk Walid Jumblat his new openness to the other side and his newly re-found “realpolitik“

The foreboding is not without its causes. The Shiaas are heavily armed and are recruiting furiously, and supporters of the main Sunni faction Almustaqbal are beginning to display their own guns. Yesterday in Tripoli (less than a couple of miles from where this post is written), a previously unknown militia by the name of “Tripoli brigades” - allied to Almustaqbal- got involved in an armed kerkuffle with the loathed pro-Syrian Islamists of Attawhid.The clash was short and the casualties were minimal, but it would have been a much bigger tragedy if it weren’t for the Army’s heavy presence.

Some see this as an apt metaphor to how a civil war can be prevented. March 14 representatives are joining their constituents in changing their minds about the Sleiman candidacy. Even LF leader Samir Geagea who was previously heavily opposed to the idea answered when asked about his candidacy that “all the options are on the table”. The table being the secret negotiations everyone is having away from the media.

The appeal of Mr. Sleiman is that he seems committed to civil peace before anything else, and in Mr. Jumblat’s logic, this transcends the occasional blind eye Mr. Sleiman turns to Syria. Politicians who have long supported Mr. Suleiman are thrilled. MP. Michel El Murr has forsaken his alliance with Mr. Michel Aoun to visit the serail, dissociate himself from Aoun’s latest initiative and wax praise on Mr. Seniora, Aoun’s nemesis.

According to Mr. Jumblat, what Lebanon needs now is a president who manages the crisis. Discussing our political difference can come later, he said. It doesn’t look too difficult to guess who’s on Mr. Jumblat’s mind.

Related Beirut Spring posts:

• Back in August, I argued precisely for what Mr. Jumblat is doing today • I then Called Mr. Suleiman the inevitable candidate • I also shared an anecdote about him that a reader posted • In September I pinpointed the one word Mr. Suleiman likes to be associated with.

By the time you read this post, I will have just Landed in Lebanon. I will try to keep an eye on the situation up close and keep you updated. It might take me a bit to adjust though, so I hope you bare with me. Thank you for taking the time to read this blog.

With a lot of talk of bringing Syria in “from the cold” and “thawing” of the relationship between Washington and Damascus, it is time to summarize once and for all why Syria’s attendance in the Annapolis conference is meaningless.

1- Iran Doesn’t Approve of Annapolis.

As a junior partner in the Syria-Iran axis, Syria can’t afford to provoke Iran, and Iran doesn’t like Annapolis one bit. This point was made clear after the phone call between the Iranian President Ahmedinejad and his Syrian counterpart, where both leaders declared that the the summit will fail.

2- Syria promises but doesn’t deliver

As most international envoys to Damascus have learned, the Syrian regime always combines sweet talking with negative actions. The reason is simple: The Syrian regime’s regional influence has always been based on the perception that it can restrain “extremist elements” like Hezbollah and Hamas. But the paradox is that without these elements, the world won’t have anything to ask from Syria. This is why Syria likes to sell promises, not deeds.

3- Syria’s real demand is Lebanon, not the Golan.

Syria’s forced withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 was a humiliation the regime hasn’t gotten over. Syrians believe the historical fallacy that Lebanon was cut-off from Syria after the French colonialists left. Also, Lebanon was to Syria what Honk Kong was to China a few years ago: A cash-cow and window to the international financial system that helped prop its corrupt security services. Adding to this all, the Syrian regime is threatened by the International Tribunal that will try the killers of Rafic Hariri, the popular ex-prime minister of Lebanon who was killed in in February 2005.

4- In Syria, Assad doesn’t call all the shots.

In Syria, the young president Bashar el Assad is not the only decision maker. Powerful and corrupt military and intelligence officers like Assaef Shawkat control many levers of power in Damascus and are keeping a close menacing eye on their brittle president, especially when it comes to the International Tribunal where they could be heavily implicated.

5- Peace is not a good thing for the Syrian regime.

The ruling elite in Syria is comprised of Alawites who are a tiny minority in Syria. To constantly keep the lid on the Sunni majority, the Syrian regime likes to frame the middle East Conflict as an epic conflict where Syria is “last bastion of resistance” against American and Zionist plans for the region. In other words, the narrative is changed from “dictatorial ruling minority” to “Arabs versus Zionists”.

6- Syria wants nuclear goodies.

A clandestine nuclear program is not usually a precursor to peace.

7- Human rights situation keeps getting worse in Syria.

In the last few days, Syria banned Facebook, a website that contained many Syrian civil rights activities. That adds to Damascus’ dismal record on the human rights front. If Syria really wanted to open up with the west, it would at least have tried to make some goodwill gestures on that front.

The highest Christian seat in the land is vacant and many Christians are dispirited. Politicians see oportunities and threats

The Hakim making his case..

In the Lebanese sectarian system, it means a lot when your top position is vacant. The Patriarch famously refused to allow a demonstration to unseat ex-President Emile Lahoud because he didn’t want the “presidency” to be tarnished. The Sunnis were furious when they felt that the opposition wanted to topple Mr. Seniora, and their reaction –large demonstrations in Sunni cities all over Lebanon in addition to having the Mufti praying next to Mr. Seniora in the seraille– helped keep him in power.

Against this backdrop, it is understandable why the Christians are feeling down with an empty Baabda palace, especially when the constitution mandates that the presidential powers should move temporarily to the Prime Minister.

Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun sees an opportunity to whipp up sectarian sentiments against Mr. Seniora and paint him as the usurper of Christian rights. The General has been trying to position himself as the strong protector of the Christians. His latest gimmick is a plea to all “Christian political, spiritual, economic, Labor and media personalities” to come to his house for consultations.

The Prime Minister is not oblivious to the Christians’ vulnerability and is aware of Mr. Aoun’s designs. This is why he visited the Patriarch today, told him that there’s no conspiracy to Islamize Lebanon and said things like “no one can take the position of the President”. He also stressed that this is a highly exceptional situation. Of course, he didn’t forget to actively ignore Mr. Aoun.

Also, Majority leader Saad Hariri tried as much as possible to mask his euphoria at Lahoud’s exit and to pull off messages like “This is a sad day for the repulic”, “we pormise the Christians to work hard to elect a new President” and “we are always glad to work under the leadership of someone from a sect that gave Lebanon some very fine men”

All eyes are on the Lebanese Christians, and I’m confident that they’ll make the right choice.

Related Beirut Spring Posts:

• Last July, I was very critical of the Maronites’ Bishops “Islamizing Lebanon” comment • Two days later, I asked them to apologize because they were proven wrong.