The opposition has the will, but does it have the power to repeal a would-be 50+1 Presidential vote?
Security was tight in the first voting session..
The MPs have gathered today in parliament to elect a President, but they failed to reach a two-third quorum. What happens after that will largely depend on the on-going negotiations between the “moderates” of both sides, Mr. Berri and Mr. Hariri. But meanwhile, the “hawks” have been establishing their leverages.
The “hardliners” of March 14 have laid down their terms in the form of simultaneous press conferences by Mr. Geagea and Mr. Jumblat. Both leaders effectively demanded a President who is acceptable to March 14. As Mr Geagea neatly puts it: “We want a President whose relationship with March 14 is similar to that between Mr. Berri and March 8, or we’ll have to chose a different speaker of Parliament”.
Both Mr. Geagea and Mr. Jumblat made it well known that in case no agreement was reached, March 14 will have to resort to its nuclear option: A 50%+1 voting session that will result in a March 14 President.
Meanwhile, the opposition’s “hardliners” have also been threatening a nuclear option of their own in case March 14 does go ahead and “unilaterally” picks a President. So far though, they are yet to spell out what they will do. Most of March 8’s threats sound scary, but warnings of “ultimate evil” and “coups” aside, one cannot see precisely what they are up to, and more importantly, whether or not they can muster anything more powerful than what they tried last year (and the Seniora Government withstood).
The people of March 8, like those of March 14, just want to live a normal life in a normal country. It can be argued that the only reason they took part in last year’s large-scale demos is that they were promised “swift results” and that they were told that nothing serious will happen to Lebanese unity and stability as a result. Moreover, large numbers of last year’s protesters were fresh out of the July war and needed a channel to release their frustration and anger, whereas this year they are tired from politics and just want to go home.
In other words, unless Hezbollah is planning to use its weapons internally (a threat their ally Michel Aoun has already made), there is nothing to prove that the opposition’s warnings are anything more than bluffs.
All the same, this blog wishes for the negotiations to succeed.
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The beirut spring is a blog that is interested in Lebanese society and its politics. It started in February 2005 after the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
September 25th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
Dear blogger, You have stated: “In other words, unless Hezbollah is planning to use its weapons internally (a threat their ally Michel Aoun has already made), there is nothing to prove that the opposition’s warnings are anything more than bluffs.”
Source Please!
September 25th, 2007 at 5:37 pm
I don’t like either “March group” but I can’t really agree that March 8 people really want to live “normal lives”. To me, fighting Israel until my last son or daughter is gone, is not a normal life. They do not have the same agenda I’m sorry to say. Job security, stable economy, yes. But I would not say this is #1 for March 8, judging from last summer’s provocation.
September 25th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
I agree with Jester, more citation would be needed please. But Jester you can not disagree on the fact that March 8 are threating in a certain way using words like “Infijar il wadi3″ (explosion), “Khatar kbir” (big danger) if march 14 get their own president with 50 + 1.
But it is really crazy, in european countries, parties win with a ratio of 51% power get to start a goverment on their own coalition terms only, they elect prime minister on their own terms … In other words they have the ultimate power. The opposition with the 49% has to democratically wait 4 years.
But in this god forsaken country, The opposition wants a part in the government and presidency. They don’t want to waite like March 14 till the end of Emile Lahoud presidency as unfair as it was.
For all March 8 supporters, lets not talk about democracy and talk about these fake stuff. Fuck it. Lets not have elections, what the hell for. Every 4 years let the leaders meet and assign a government which includes everybody and a president who is good with everybody.
Elections? what for? March 8, that system will suite you, since you clearly don’t believe in democracy.
You only believe in one slogan:
“My way or the highway”
March 8 dictionary:
Highway: Killing , death, coop de etat …
September 25th, 2007 at 5:43 pm
Dear Jester,
Please translate this statement by Aoun on September the 15th:
“In case no agreement was made, the most powerful party on the ground will impose its will”
September 25th, 2007 at 6:30 pm
This could be relevant to the ‘violent threats’ argument if it is verified.
http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=13572
September 25th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
Ali, I don’t know if you’re the same Ali who normally posts here, but this is the first comment of yours I’ve read that I COMPLETELY agree with.
But it is really crazy, in european countries, parties win with a ratio of 51% power get to start a goverment on their own coalition terms only, they elect prime minister on their own terms … In other words they have the ultimate power. The opposition with the 49% has to democratically wait 4 years.
But in this god forsaken country, The opposition wants a part in the government and presidency. They don’t want to waite like March 14 till the end of Emile Lahoud presidency as unfair as it was.
I’m guessing this is a different Ali :)
September 25th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
There are two Alis
one with big A “Ali” and other with small “ali”
September 25th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Iheartnassrallah4ever,
I encourage you to mingle more with the urban supporters of Hezbollah. Trust me, not all of them would sacrifice their jobs, not alone their children, for “resisting” israel.
BV,
There are two “Alis” who usually comment here. One sympathizes with March 14, and the other with March 8.
September 25th, 2007 at 7:22 pm
I guess there will be more negociations in the few coming weeks.
With the international threats of a war btw israel and syria with the hezbollah proxy, the lebanese opposition will make more concessions as it started with the latest initiative from the speaker Berri.
Now would the majority and especially their hawks geagea and joumblatt listen to theses concession to avoid lebanon to pay again the price of a possible war?
I doubt
September 25th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
I think that Jumblatt and Geagea are right that March 14 can elect its own president if there is no consensus, but their argument is weakened by the apparent unwillingness of M14 parties to even discuss the presidency. They should bend over backwards in the media to get in the same table and appear as conciliatory to undermine opposition’s claim that they are “unilaterally” trying to impose their own president. Let the opposition parties be the ones to reject a consensus.
September 25th, 2007 at 8:36 pm
“ali” by any other name…
BV-Why do you think I am against democracy? But what democracy do we have in Lebanon? I just posted my take on this on a different blog that is sympathetic to your views and I saw that you commented there as well.
Look guys-we are where we are, our democratic wishes notwithstanding. Let’s agree for the time being on putting this country together, and hopefully we can evolve gradually to where we can dismantle this ridiculous confessional system that is anathema to any democratic ideal that any of us espouses.
September 25th, 2007 at 8:55 pm
Ok, my apologies to the 2 Alis for getting you guys confused.
It’s not a question of being sympathetic to M14 or M8. If you’ve read my comments over the past months, you’d know that I am pretty critical of M14 as well.
I agree with you that we need to build Lebanon, and put aside all this other mumbo jumbo that’s, in the end, trivial, compared to having a functional country.
The problem is, at this stage, no one seems to give a rats ass about the state, or its institutions. I see a speaker of parliament who treats Parliament like his own private company, and an opposition who threatens and blackmails when they don’t get their way. I see many failings on the M14 side as well, but at least, for the time being, they seem to be, as a rule, trying to stick to the institutions. You don’t see M14 ignoring Berri and parliament and appointing a president. They still abided by the 2/3 quorum, as required by law, at yesterday’s session. They showed up, and they accepted M8’s boycott (which is entirely constitutional). So yes, you might wanna call me “sympathetic of M14″ because I see one side who’s still trying to play by the rules, and one side who doesn’t seem to give a fuck about the rules. But believe me, I am very critical of M14. They don’t grasp the meaning the true democracy any more than M8 does. They’re still stuck in their sectarian mentality, and this “consensus” attitude (and i don’t mean just about teh president), which in my opinion, is the very antithesis of what democracy really is (which is why I agreed with the other Ali earlier, because he was speaking to that very point).
I’ll repeat it one last time: Before we can build a solid foundation, there needs to be a basic agreement from EVERYONE that we have to abide by a certain set of rules (even when we lose, or we’re on the wrong side of said rules). As long as one side (or both) does not get that, there is very little hope for Lebanon.
September 25th, 2007 at 9:03 pm
M8 can try to form a second government, that’s their nuclear option.
September 25th, 2007 at 9:06 pm
If this was only about who holds a stronger hand in a true democratic game then i would say that M14 can trump anything the opposition can muster.
But the opposition has shown time after time that they have a complete disregard for consequences (the July war, the Jan 23 and 25 incidences, the ongoing shit-in; pun intended…), and under these rules the game changes to one where the opposition i fear, holds most of the cards.
M14 leaders know this all too well which makes their ability to move forward with the obvious measures (mainly electing a president with a simple majority) very difficult. But as it stands, no consensus is possible so we are heading towards vote by M14 for a new president, after which we can expect the opposition to be true to their nature and illicitly start a fight.
September 25th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
Interesting choice of words…
When you talk about “the people of March 8, like those of March 14” rather than discussing “supporters”, there might as well be different people involved in this.
Maybe because March 8 marks the anniversary of Hafez’ advent.
September 25th, 2007 at 10:24 pm
To ali
you posted :”Look guys-we are where we are, our democratic wishes notwithstanding. Let’s agree for the time being on putting this country together, and hopefully we can evolve gradually to where we can dismantle this ridiculous confessional system that is anathema to any democratic ideal that any of us espouses.”
This is the the argument I get whenever I discuss the issue of why not live democratically and give the 51% majority the entire power. They would always say that they believe in democracy “bas il balad heak”, or there is no democracy now, we have to work on it but let us try to fix things first.
My question is, why not start now? My don’t you start right now? If you say things are democratically wrong then why don’t you start at this moment and do something democratic?
Or if democracy is practiced now, it will not benefit the politicians that you support?
It is a choice one has to make now, benefit of a political group on the expense of democracy and say that time is not right for a healthy democracy? Or try to start practicing democracy as it should?
This thing of postponing such matters really reminds me Bashar il Assad who promised his people reform and democracy. Of course non of that happened because as he says the regional circumstances doesn’t allow that yet. Circumstances will never be available for democracy neither in Syria nor in Lebanon in the next 50 years. You should fight for it, and not wait for it to come.
But I totally agree with you on the point to dismantle this ridiculous confessional system.
September 26th, 2007 at 2:17 am
Dismantling the confessional system will be a disaster under these conditions where the Lebanese mentality did not evolve! Why? Because of the serious demographic changes occuring, we will eventually have Hassan Nassrallah as President and Imad Moughanié as head of the Army. What a nightmare! Especially after seeing Nassrallah’s mentor and leader Najad in NY.
Unless Hizballah disarm his militia and stop his ideological ties to Tehran and his demographical expansion in other Lebanese lands, the current system under the Taëf Accord must remain.
September 26th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Sam
I wont keep a deal i dont know.
Some parts of Taëf are still unknown.
Moreover the explanation parts and the procedures about it are still in the hand of Hussein Husseini and not published.
We do not really know what is really Taef deal, even the MP that signed it do not know what are the secret part of the deal made of.