If you believe that Safadi as an individual independent from his allies and March 14 is the real and main ‘pillar’ behind the success and popular support of March 14 in North 2 and more specifically Tripoli than you’re entitled to your own views. I don’t believe it. I don’t believe that Safadi is the great all-star politician with all the support in Tripoli that you make him out to have.

Yes Aziz is an MP of Diniyeh. I was merely stating that the success of the other Sunni MPs in the region and specifically the Tripoli Bloc ones does not depend solely on Safadi. Aziz has his own support in Dinnieh and so does Kabbara in Tripoli. I was also stating that the Hariri name and legacy along with the likes of Ahdab, Kabbara, Aloush, Aziz, Jisr etc. do not need the great Safadi to win an election and to think so is, in my opinion, naive and analytically absurd.

I may be completely wrong. But this is just my view and analysis of the situation. Since when did Safadi become this great revolutionary, the man of great political wisdom and ideas, the man of the people from Tripoli, and the charismatic vanguard of the values, principles and aspirations of its people and the March 14 movement? Since when can he result in the defeat of the Future Movement, Ahdab, Kabbara etc. in Tripoli if he moves away from March 14. I think that there is no way he will make a move like that. Safadi is such a golen boy all star politician he managed to get around 7000 more votes than his political allies and fellow list candidates, while the other FOUR Sunni MPs were barely 5000 votes apart. Raises questions don’t you think? A large bloc of people must have scratched the others off. Is it the pro-syrian sympathizers?? Is it his own people???

I’d like Mustapha to comment on that discussion however, and any one who knows the “back streets” of Tripoli.

One word before I go “m”, Abdel-Aziz was elected in Akkar (North 1, NOT 2) my friend, NOT in Tripoli. And he was added to Tripoli Bloc based on Safadi’s request on Hariri’s list in Akkar.

Everybody knows that Safadi has support solely because of his money. He does a lot of great charitable work in Tripoli and I commend him for that. But please dont tell me its because the people of Tripoli admire his political wit, or because he has charisma, or even because he’s a man of the people. He isn’t even from a traditional political family or even a prominent family; which means that the only reason he is so powerful is money.

As for the Tripoli Bloc, everybody knows Safadi is the Blocs head, founder and financier, thats it. But when you get down on the ground and look at who initially had the peoples support, who people have supported for years before Safadi’s money hit the streets its the likes of Kabbara and recently Abdul Aziz. You actually have to hit the streets to know that they have the largest populist support. From outside the Tripoli Bloc its Mosbah Al Ahdab, who probably has the most real support in Tripoli and among all sects and religious denominations.

And no it wasn’t the future movement who tried to cut votes from Safadi; I was there and I heard it first hand. Safadi did it. That’s EXACTLY why he did get so much more than Jisr, because while all the campaigns were working hard to get the list elected he was working to advance himself. And lets say he didnt do it, which he did, but that means that he got some of the pro-syrian list’s support too. Lets see why would the same people who are voting for Karami and Frangieh vote for Safadi?? Do there stated political views match?? Is there a monetary benefit??? Has there been a monetary benefit in the past and now they are voting for him based solely on the fact that he has helped them with some cash???? Whether or not this is the way to get elected is not for me to decide or be the judge of. I, however, judge a person’s political ability by his views, integrity, leadership ability, being a person of the people etc. NOT only on his charitable attributes.

Btw he has everything to lose from splitting with the rest of the Tripoli Bloc, because that would in fact be splitting with the March 14 movement and Hariri. Most people in Tripoli, and I know you’re from there, support the government and Allah yirhamou Rafic Hariri. So no they won’t stop supporting the March 14 list if Safadi isnt on it…TRUST ME. Safadi’s money is replaceable but Hariri’s name and legacy isnt. They can get money from anywhere and with the Hariri name, Ahdab, Kabbara, Abdul Aziz, and Alloush they’ll destroy Safadi.

As for the votes, you should check the voting lists man; it was Safadi’s popularity that carried the whole list to win the elections in the North 2. The difference in votes between Safadi and Future’s Mr. Jesr was almost 200000 votes, that should give you an idea about the “powers” in Tripoli.

As for Kabbara and Abdel-Aziz, they are the ones who CAN’T afford drifting away from Safadi, for they won’t even stand a chance in the coming elections. Every body is Tripoli knows that Tripoli Bloc’s main pillar is Safadi, not vise versa.

In all cases, Tripoli Bloc as a whole stated that they are going to attend all the sessions of presidential elections, but they won’t go for half + one majority unless we entered the 10 day period, during which the bloc will meet, and decide what to do.

Don’t underestimate Safadi man, he was able to become the most prominent Politician in Tripoli and the North because he is a good politician….

Safadi is not principled and is a political opportunist. I worked on the campaign of one of the march 14 MPs in Tripoli and during the election we got information that Safadi was telling a small group of supporters to scratch everyone else off the march 14 list and only vote for him. The intent was obviously to get more votes than the other candidates on the list and thus having a strong case to become the Sunni minister from Tripoli.

Being a good business man does not make him a great politician. He still has very little experience in politics and is very untrustworthy. I would never like to seem him as Prime Minister let alone sometime soon where the country has to face an ocean of problems.

Btw Failasoof elections in Lebanon are mostly if not always done by ‘list’ not by individual. People generally elect a list of candidates that bring together an alliance of political parties, movements etc. Its about electing the strongest bloc in parliament. And this was especially true of the 2005 election where the goal was to try and win 86 seats in parliament for march 14 candidates in order to get rid of lahoud and turn the country around. So you cant say Safadi got 104000 votes. March 14 got those votes. He got a few thousand more than the rest because of his sinister tactic.

Also MPs Mohammad Kabbara and Qasem Abdul Aziz have both made statements saying they will attend the presidential election no matter what the opposition does, contrary to Safadi’s stated view on the matter. In the end i think Safadi will back down. He can’t afford to have the Tripoli bloc split and make enemies of Kabbara, Abdul Aziz, Ahdab and other sunni March 14 MPs in Tripoli with large support.

At the end of the day, I will speculate (that’s all any of us can do) both the to be elected president, and the prime minister of the new government to be formed will be from neither camp, but neutrals, and Safadi is probably throwing his hat in the ring. If you accept the 14ers are not a solid voting block, the 59 votes the opposition control look very attractive to a Sunni MP with political ambition.

In sum, I will speculate there’s truth to the story, but al Balad has burned the poor guy’s name with allegations of a Syrian conspiracy.

And How come Jumblatt, Jeajea and Hariri didn’t attack Safadi directly for his stand?

In short, Safadi has become a major player in the Lebanese political scene, and it is only normal that people will start “attacking” him. But we always need to wait and see how things unfold eventually.

Safadi becoming a PM, why not? He has a strong popularity (104000 votes in 2005 elections!), he is a brilliant business man, and he has the political ambition. It is going to happen one day or another….