
Minister Safadi’s recent stance is due to Syria’s promising him the Premiership, says Albalad.

In case you have been wondering about the “Safadi” problem, where a March 14 loyalist decided with his 4-member parliamentary bloc to toe the line of the opposition and advocate a two third quorum, depriving the majority of its simple majority, Alabalad, a Lebanese daily, has this morning shed some light on the circumstances.
According to Albalad, Mr. Safadi has been secretly meeting with opposition leaders, and reached with them an arrangement where they would vote for him as a Prime Minister of a transitional government in return for not attending a 50 +1 Presidential voting session.
Albalad cites unnamed sources that a communication channel has been established between Mr. Safadi, a Sunni from Tripoli, and Syrian officials, through the help of an unnamed “former northern MP” (Najib Mikati ?).
But, also according to Albalad, the recent killing of MP Ghanem has caused serious rifts in his bloc. This of course explains the dissenting opinions his bloc partners have been making.
The question remains: When push comes to shove, which way will the Tripoli block go?

Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.


The way I understood Safadi’s position was that his bloc will show up, but unless there is a 2/3rds quorum, they will vote blank, at least before the last ten days. This doesn’t sound like such a radical position to me.
So much for Tripoli’s moderates!!! True nationalist (syrian nationalist!)!!!
Could Safadi be afraid for his life so he took this position? Sometimes ago, I’ve read an article stating that Safadi was thinking to move his home from Beirut because of Sunni-Shiaa clash.
Safadi ambition for PM position is unreal. By betraying March 14th he will no longer have Sunni support, and will become like Zaher Khatib.
Let’s address the theory that he fears his life, first, which is legitimate. Alawatie MP from North changed position recently for the same reasons.
Therefore, Leadership is needed to put order in the clan!
This is the moment where Lebanese, should sit down, relax, and just observe how the political scene will unfold.
Patience & Calm is truly a virtue in these times.
These are times when ‘doing’ is less productive than to simply ‘observe’.
I am from Tripoli,
and I consider myself myself a March 14 supporter and for what it stands for it. Safadi is a very good person who is really doing alot for the people in the north. Till now he is still clean , he didn’t steal any money, or maybe he didn’t have a chance to do that yet. Second he doesn’t have blood on his hands from the war.One thing for sure is that he would like to be a PM some day. So he is trying not to be so aggressive.
It would be a great disappointment if he will let down march 14 for personal interests in the moment of truth. But I have faith that he won’t.
BUT PLZ PLZ PLZ, Its AL-BALAD newspaper for f**k’s sake. Who the hell trusts this newspaper? its syrian, it is always trying to build trouble and make up fake news. please don’t judge so fast like Ralf.
Ralf lets waite to see what he will REALLY do and if he will betray March 14, I am on ur side
You seem to be a fan of “unnamed” “anonymous” and “diplomatic” sources. And your similarly intelligent readers quickly jump on the bandwagon and start ranting and raving.
I guess when you don’t find the news you need, you just make it up. It is better to live in illusion than an unsatisfactory reality. Keep drugging yourselves.
Can’t you see something “fishy” here? Botrous Harb says the quorum is two third, yet you don’t see people attacking his stand, so why Safadi?
And How come Jumblatt, Jeajea and Hariri didn’t attack Safadi directly for his stand?
In short, Safadi has become a major player in the Lebanese political scene, and it is only normal that people will start “attacking” him. But we always need to wait and see how things unfold eventually.
Safadi becoming a PM, why not? He has a strong popularity (104000 votes in 2005 elections!), he is a brilliant business man, and he has the political ambition. It is going to happen one day or another….
This is no more than evidence the 14ers are a movement, and not a political body.
At the end of the day, I will speculate (that’s all any of us can do) both the to be elected president, and the prime minister of the new government to be formed will be from neither camp, but neutrals, and Safadi is probably throwing his hat in the ring. If you accept the 14ers are not a solid voting block, the 59 votes the opposition control look very attractive to a Sunni MP with political ambition.
In sum, I will speculate there’s truth to the story, but al Balad has burned the poor guy’s name with allegations of a Syrian conspiracy.
It is hard to believe that Mr. Safadi is an unprincipled political opportunist. If there is any truth to the idea that Mr. Safadi will as much as entertain the idea of gaining a political advantage by selling Lebanese sovereignty then he should carry this scarlet letter all throughout his political carrier. Actually, if the AlBalad reports prove to be accurate then it would be a good idea for Mr. Safadi to put an end to his political carrier by resigning.
By speculating there is some truth to the story, I mean it is probably true he wants the premiership, but I don’t believe he has somehow done a deal with the Syrian leadership to get it. I believe he is principled, and too intelligent to make such a silly mistake.
I think ive said this before on this issue.
Safadi is not principled and is a political opportunist. I worked on the campaign of one of the march 14 MPs in Tripoli and during the election we got information that Safadi was telling a small group of supporters to scratch everyone else off the march 14 list and only vote for him. The intent was obviously to get more votes than the other candidates on the list and thus having a strong case to become the Sunni minister from Tripoli.
Being a good business man does not make him a great politician. He still has very little experience in politics and is very untrustworthy. I would never like to seem him as Prime Minister let alone sometime soon where the country has to face an ocean of problems.
Btw Failasoof elections in Lebanon are mostly if not always done by ‘list’ not by individual. People generally elect a list of candidates that bring together an alliance of political parties, movements etc. Its about electing the strongest bloc in parliament. And this was especially true of the 2005 election where the goal was to try and win 86 seats in parliament for march 14 candidates in order to get rid of lahoud and turn the country around. So you cant say Safadi got 104000 votes. March 14 got those votes. He got a few thousand more than the rest because of his sinister tactic.
Also MPs Mohammad Kabbara and Qasem Abdul Aziz have both made statements saying they will attend the presidential election no matter what the opposition does, contrary to Safadi’s stated view on the matter. In the end i think Safadi will back down. He can’t afford to have the Tripoli bloc split and make enemies of Kabbara, Abdul Aziz, Ahdab and other sunni March 14 MPs in Tripoli with large support.
m,
Actually you got the news backwards my friend! It was Future movement that tried to cut Safadi’s off the votes, not vise versa!
As for the votes, you should check the voting lists man; it was Safadi’s popularity that carried the whole list to win the elections in the North 2. The difference in votes between Safadi and Future’s Mr. Jesr was almost 200000 votes, that should give you an idea about the “powers” in Tripoli.
As for Kabbara and Abdel-Aziz, they are the ones who CAN’T afford drifting away from Safadi, for they won’t even stand a chance in the coming elections. Every body is Tripoli knows that Tripoli Bloc’s main pillar is Safadi, not vise versa.
In all cases, Tripoli Bloc as a whole stated that they are going to attend all the sessions of presidential elections, but they won’t go for half + one majority unless we entered the 10 day period, during which the bloc will meet, and decide what to do.
Don’t underestimate Safadi man, he was able to become the most prominent Politician in Tripoli and the North because he is a good politician….
I don’t want to keep going back and forth, but you must be kidding me if you think Safadi has ‘real’ support in Tripoli.
Everybody knows that Safadi has support solely because of his money. He does a lot of great charitable work in Tripoli and I commend him for that. But please dont tell me its because the people of Tripoli admire his political wit, or because he has charisma, or even because he’s a man of the people. He isn’t even from a traditional political family or even a prominent family; which means that the only reason he is so powerful is money.
As for the Tripoli Bloc, everybody knows Safadi is the Blocs head, founder and financier, thats it. But when you get down on the ground and look at who initially had the peoples support, who people have supported for years before Safadi’s money hit the streets its the likes of Kabbara and recently Abdul Aziz. You actually have to hit the streets to know that they have the largest populist support. From outside the Tripoli Bloc its Mosbah Al Ahdab, who probably has the most real support in Tripoli and among all sects and religious denominations.
And no it wasn’t the future movement who tried to cut votes from Safadi; I was there and I heard it first hand. Safadi did it. That’s EXACTLY why he did get so much more than Jisr, because while all the campaigns were working hard to get the list elected he was working to advance himself. And lets say he didnt do it, which he did, but that means that he got some of the pro-syrian list’s support too. Lets see why would the same people who are voting for Karami and Frangieh vote for Safadi?? Do there stated political views match?? Is there a monetary benefit??? Has there been a monetary benefit in the past and now they are voting for him based solely on the fact that he has helped them with some cash???? Whether or not this is the way to get elected is not for me to decide or be the judge of. I, however, judge a person’s political ability by his views, integrity, leadership ability, being a person of the people etc. NOT only on his charitable attributes.
Btw he has everything to lose from splitting with the rest of the Tripoli Bloc, because that would in fact be splitting with the March 14 movement and Hariri. Most people in Tripoli, and I know you’re from there, support the government and Allah yirhamou Rafic Hariri. So no they won’t stop supporting the March 14 list if Safadi isnt on it…TRUST ME. Safadi’s money is replaceable but Hariri’s name and legacy isnt. They can get money from anywhere and with the Hariri name, Ahdab, Kabbara, Abdul Aziz, and Alloush they’ll destroy Safadi.
m,
I’m sorry to tell you that you have no idea what you are talking about man! I ain’t gunna go into an endless argument with you over this.
I’d like Mustapha to comment on that discussion however, and any one who knows the “back streets” of Tripoli.
One word before I go “m”, Abdel-Aziz was elected in Akkar (North 1, NOT 2) my friend, NOT in Tripoli. And he was added to Tripoli Bloc based on Safadi’s request on Hariri’s list in Akkar.
I have no idea what I’m talking about, yet I believe I’m making logical and real case.
If you believe that Safadi as an individual independent from his allies and March 14 is the real and main ‘pillar’ behind the success and popular support of March 14 in North 2 and more specifically Tripoli than you’re entitled to your own views. I don’t believe it. I don’t believe that Safadi is the great all-star politician with all the support in Tripoli that you make him out to have.
Yes Aziz is an MP of Diniyeh. I was merely stating that the success of the other Sunni MPs in the region and specifically the Tripoli Bloc ones does not depend solely on Safadi. Aziz has his own support in Dinnieh and so does Kabbara in Tripoli. I was also stating that the Hariri name and legacy along with the likes of Ahdab, Kabbara, Aloush, Aziz, Jisr etc. do not need the great Safadi to win an election and to think so is, in my opinion, naive and analytically absurd.
I may be completely wrong. But this is just my view and analysis of the situation. Since when did Safadi become this great revolutionary, the man of great political wisdom and ideas, the man of the people from Tripoli, and the charismatic vanguard of the values, principles and aspirations of its people and the March 14 movement? Since when can he result in the defeat of the Future Movement, Ahdab, Kabbara etc. in Tripoli if he moves away from March 14. I think that there is no way he will make a move like that. Safadi is such a golen boy all star politician he managed to get around 7000 more votes than his political allies and fellow list candidates, while the other FOUR Sunni MPs were barely 5000 votes apart. Raises questions don’t you think? A large bloc of people must have scratched the others off. Is it the pro-syrian sympathizers?? Is it his own people???