The Problem With Big Carrots
Will France’s promise of a “Spectacular Opening Gesture” convince Syria of leaving Lebanon alone?
Diplomats rarely use the word spectaculaire, but this is precisely the word chosen by France’s top diplomat to discribe to Le Parisien how his country would treat Assad’s regime if only it would let Lebanon peacefully elect a President and remove the last significant position the Syrians still control.
Will Bashar be tempted?
This being Sarkozy’s France, one can imagine a scenario where France discretely promises Syria a huge weapons contract and an ego-boosting visit by Sarkozy himself. Two weeks later, Cecillia Sarkozy would fly to Damascus and whisk out a pro-western Lebanese President back to safety in Beirut…
Alas, wrong country. Too many people have tried to pull a Lybian on Syria, but many are failing to see the fundamental difference in Logic between the two regimes.
The regime in Damascus has a particular logic that goes something like this: France moved from “opening” to “spectacular opening”. Good news. Now I wonder what damage I can cause to make that an “Extra spectacular opening”.
In other words, if the Syrian regime ran Lybia, it would have by now started rounding up every European nurse in the country and throwing them in jails under various crimes. Just imagine all the “Spectacular openings” it could get after that.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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I agree with your analysis. There is an obvious trend with the way The Assad regime reacts when greated with such nicities - usually involves an assasination!
True! Syria never leaves Lebanon alone, they always go for something bigger then what they are currently getting and when you think about it, they have nothing to loose! the regime is not in danger and they don’t really care about the people so why stop meddling in Lebanon now, they could use the Lebanon card later.
hehehehehehehe, good one!
Their aim is, and will continue to be, a Greater Syria. There is probably a map somewhere, but this certainly includes the Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and most of Iraq.
The biggest difference between Lybia and Syria is that Syria is involved deeply in Hariri assassination and this is the main point. If France is to negociate with the Syrian the Hariri international tribunal is the key anything else will not do the work. It will just trigger more violence to show more influence.
No Fear is right! Syria wants the tribunal to disappear. That is its first goal (cake) and everything else is just icing on the cake!
The other issue is that Syria does not reciprocate nice things with nice things! Remember the Arabic poem: “If you were generous to a good person, you almost own him. But if you were generous to a bad guy, he will rebel.” Help me guys with the translation!!!
Border Demarcation, UN Troops on the boarders, Exchange of Embassies, Complete disengagement from Lebanon, and I’m willing to consider letting them slide on the Hariri trial.
Of course no disrespect to our brethren in the community, but “if” the above is gained, naturally Lebanon (Hariri) wins.
Sorry Saud-ick! Letting the Harriri trial “slide” means we have no dignity and we don’t value the people who worked for an independent, sovereign Lebanon! Also, the Syrians will not hesitate to kill anyone who will try to build an independent, sovereign Lebanon! If you are not punished for your act, you will do it again!!! NOPE, IT WILL NOT SLIDE!!!
would syria act the way it does if it didnt feel untouchable ?
France will indeed come with a fat weapons package
More Appeasement…
More weapons everywhere - and from where ?
Who would be happy if we (the middle east) went to war with eachother
The West ? Russia? Iran? The Jihadis ?
All of the above ?
Just like countless other carrots that have been dangled to Assad, this one will go nowhere.
The Syrian regime is EXISTENTIALLY incapable of leaving Lebanon alone. It amazes me that people STILL don’t get that. Without a constant state of conflict with Israel, and without a stranglehold on Lebanon, the Assad regime will quickly wither and die. So therefore, it is IMPOSSIBLE for Assad to choose any of these carrots, even if he wanted to. It’s really that simple.
Often I think western countries purposefully appease Syria..
could that be to make them feel free to indulge in bigger crimes they’ll later follow them with..? or to indirectly make adjustments on the Lebanese political landscape.. thus messing-up the situation even more..
[...] • Last August, I argued against France’s promise of a “spectacular opening gesture” towards Syria • A few days later I realized that France and the US were beginning to differ in diagnosing the Lebanese situation • In March, I wrote a post endorsing Nicolas Sarkozy for the French presidency. [...]
[...] • In March, I wrote a post endorsing Mr. Sarkozy for the French presidency • But I later noticed that Sarkozy’s France is misguided on Syria • Recently, I was startled at how naive Mr. Kouchner, the French Foreign Minister, seems to be on Lebanon • I had noted that big carrots, like those France are offering, are not what Syria needed. [...]