2.5 – It must be somebody else fault.

I agree. It does appear strange. And when I first started following Lebanese politics I was also flabbergasted at why leaders could change positions, have contrary positions, dismiss facts etc. and still not lose popular support.

The problem is that you are framing things based on the logic of Western politics and this is Lebanon. So.

Here is an easy to use chart. This the way the average brain in Lebanon processes new information.

1- The Zaame (leader) is always right
2- Conspiracy theories make all inconsistencies consistent
3- Facts and logic

If you note, level 3 is never reached because there is always a Zaame statement or conspiracy theory out there that will nullify it.

I hope this helped

First – one would have to believe that Aoun has “long term objectives” — his objectives have always been for him and at his age, they can be nothing but short term.
The FPM movement was and is just a vehicle for his goal of the chair.

One of the interesting things I’ve noticed is that the “warlord” Geagea fully understands about being a “Kingmaker”. Aoun had many chances to be a “hero” and he let them all go .. It is doubtful he will change now.
It was clear on Jan 23 that this “opposition” was a failure and he lost his biggest chance right then. He could have pulled out and he might even have been able to talk his way into the chair with enough mea culpas.

Ayesh Lubnan!