Why Nassrallah’s Speech Was Good
The controversial nature of the anniversary and the speech should not overshadow its strategic importance.
By all measures, it was an annoyance to March 14 and many Lebanese who just want to lead a normal life. Hundreds of thousands of people celebrating “victory” for a war many saw as a disaster, shouting “Death to America” and listening to their archrival uttering on huge screens those three dreadful words: “The Next War”.
It even got worse. After the event ended, the same people got out on the streets of Beirut and had “celebratory gun shots” in the air that ended up wounding many people.
Government “sources” muffled protests about whether or not Nassrallah will take anyone’s permission before launching another war. But was that the adequate response? Alas it was not.
If the Government really wanted to prevent another war, it should have played along. After all, Nassrallah never said anything about starting the next war. He just said that he would respond with great force and a “colossal surprise“ If Israel attacks. He even said he supported an internal political settlement.
Seniora should have responded with a speech of his own: “If the Israelis dare attack us, the entire Lebanese people will resist them as one body.” By doing so, Seniora would achieve two objectives:
1- He would confuse those trying to discredit him as a Zionist and perhaps initiate a political breakthrough.
2- He would help prevent another war; Nassrallah’s credibility among the Israelis, if coupled with a Seniora’s vow of unity, would make it politically impossible for Israel to launch another war on Lebanon.
We can be angry with Nassrallah and we can dislike him as much as we want. But we should never forget this very important strategic principle: If you want peace, prepare for war.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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Indeed..peace through strength
and dont worry – Israel doesnt want to bother lebanon- she just got sick and tired of palis or hezbo shooting rockets at her
no rockets…no problems
This ‘Cold War’ set up could be quite beneficial. Though, we still need to figure out a way to shoot those Israeli planes out of the sky. I hope DM Murr’s trip to Russia will be positive and provide the army with the firepower it needs.
Seniora does not dare to take a shit before an American-Israeli shitting Order Approval .
And you still think/say :
Seniora should have responded with a speech of his own: “If the Israelis dare attack us, the entire Lebanese people will resist them as one body.”
Dream On !
If the Seniora behaved this way from the beginning, Lebanon would have avoided even the 2006 war . (In accordance to your logic)
Israel only understands the language of force, When will you realize that !!!!
I don’t like your analysis at all. You miss the point entirely.
Siniora is the prime minister of Lebanon, from the results of a democratically held election.
If he is to respect and enforce the Constitution of Lebanon, its democratic institutions etc…Then Siniora should:
1. Condemn his speech for speaking about war and obligating all of Lebanon.
2. Condemn his speech as inflaming a critical situation and risking Lebanon’s internal and external security.
3. Raise the pressure and warn him that legal action will ensue if he continues to speak on behalf of Lebanon when dealing with internal / external relations and security issues.
What you said – would be to bow down to a person that:
1. illegally runs a state within the lebanese state
2. violates (not only lebanese law – in many areas) but also international laws:
a. Taif
b. 1559
c. 1701
d. Siniora’s 7 point plan
BTW, he did agree to these at one point.
Lebanon is a democratic state with a democratically elected Government. The problem Lebanon faces is external Syrian and Iranian intervention, sponsoring, funding, arming, supplying, directing of militias internal to Lebanon.
If foreign countries want to help – Lets start here.
The problem Lebanon faces is external Syrian and Iranian intervention, sponsoring, funding, arming, supplying, directing of militias internal to Lebanon.
Well, the opposition would say the same thing about M14.
Is that the real problem? I think the problem is much larger than that.
If the Sunni and Shia unit = Islamic Super Power in the Region…..
Political differences are OKAY / but breaking apart is the RED LINE and it will never happen as long as there are honest people from both sides no matter how much the west tries to break the Muslim nation apart. They will fail inshalla…
Sorry to say you’re not making much sense today, Steve.
Just curious…
Do most Lebanese believe, at this point in history, that Hezbollah is REDUCING the likelihood of war with Israel?
If Hezbollah laid down it’s arms, and Lebanon – north to south – made it clear that it did not desire the violent eradication of its neighbor, would its chances of getting attacked by Isreal increase?
Wow… really surprised by your analysis – were you smoking something or on medication when you wrote this post?!
Surely war-mongering speeches, waving flags with AK-47 motifs and reciting “Death to America” leads to peace. Still, like the cedar trees many of the current problems are rooted in Lebanon, not elsewhere.
Wlak Jad Aoun go shoot birds and call them planes and surely stop dreaming of getting anti aircraft missile from russia. Israel do not want war with Lebanon, iran and syria want lebanon to go to war with israel bcoz they are incapable of standing with both their armies in front of the israeli army. Enough victories ya jarab, they made us bite the dust and then went on investigating why they didn’t made us bite the dust much more and you call it a victory!!!
If you want peace with Israel, Fukin ask for it and you will get it!
And Nadir becharafak, who ordered YOU to write this post and do you think Hassouna was the author of his speech last night.
Sorry, Mustapha, I don’t think you’re not really making much sense today.
I can understand the “peace through strength” argument, to a point. But what’s that got to do with Nassrallah? The “strength” should come from the Lebanese state and its institutions. Not a private citizen (Nassrallah) and his private militia. I’d argue that their presence is the exact opposite of strength, because they undermine (i.e. weaken, i.e. opposite of strength) Lebanon and its national armed forces.
Addendum:
I’d also argue (a point that was already made by someone else before me) that Hezbollah and their missiles actually INCREASE the risk of war with Israel. Look no further than their misguided adventures last year, that started THAT war, and tell me you believe that their missiles and divine inspiration is in any way acting as a deterrent to Israel.
In fact, the very premise of Nassrallah’s speech (and indeed, most of Hezbollah’s propaganda) is flawed: The Hezbollah masses have been brainwashed to believe Israel has territorial and aggressive ambitions in Lebanon, thus justifying the need for DEFENSE, resistance, etc.
In truth, every single one of Israel’s incursions and invasions into Lebanon (going all the way back to 1978) was due to something being started from the Lebanese side (be it the PLO, Hezbollah, or whoever).
You too Brutus / Mustapha ??
Most disappointing.
Instead of waving with empty threats
(“If the Israelis dare attack.. bla bla”),
better attack the Israelis with a peace initiative.
More effective, isn’t it?
.
Guys,
I understand the argument that Hezbollah’s presence itself is a provocation to Israel. And I long though that if only we live and let live, everyone would have peace.
But in matters of defense, relying on the peaceful intentions of others is no strategy. Weakness can teach the best behaved states to be greedy.
Besides, I get the impression that too much good faith is placed in Israel. Remember, the Jewish state didn’t just bomb Hezbollah’s areas, it bombed Jounieh, Maameltein and Ehden for God’s sake. That is more than a hint that it’s not only Hezbollah they want to weaken.
I hate Hezbollah to the bone, but I hate being a sitting duck even more.
BV,
“Sorry, Mustapha, I don’t think you’re not really making much sense today.”
Damn! I am still trying to decode this sentence :).
So, if Hezbollah packed its bags, moved to Iran, and dedicated its efforts to, say, finding a cure for cancer, or developing cold fusion, or inventing an edible meatless hot dog, Lebanon would find itself in greater danger?
The Middle East is like a Bermuda Triangle for logic.
Beirutspring, the infectious anti-Israeli hatred all too common in Lebanon and among Lebanese abroad is warping your logic as clearly as any Hizbollah supporter, and it’s very disappointing.
Last year’s bombing campaign was misguided and over-reaching, but this doesn’t mean Israel wants a weak Lebanon. It wants Lebanon to deal with any groups using Lebanon to attack and threaten Israel. Besides, however terrible or ineffective bombing the bridges was, you’re ignoring its purpose: to prevent Hizbollah troop and resupply movements. The intent behind actions ARE important, despite attempts to drown them in hate-inspiring rhetoric.
Yes, being strong is important to protecting your freedoms. But that means LEBANON has to be strong, NOT Hizbollah. If the Hizbollah militia is strong, then Lebanon is weak. Is it not clear that the Hizbollah militia doesn’t stand for the freedoms you wish to protect?
It would be a mistake to believe Israel lumps in the Hizbollah militia with the rest of Lebanon. It is very much hoping the two are very separate, and that a strong central Lebanese government will deal with the Hizbollah militia.
You admit you accept that the Hizbollah militia’s presence increases the risk of attack. So follow that logic a little further, and put the responsibilities of defending Lebanon on the Lebanese army.
Also, Lebanon should not become a Syrian puppet. That causes the same problems as an armed Hizbollah (and the two are of course linked). Syria likes to put pressure on Israel, which is not peaceful behaviour.
Oops. I screwed up with the double negative there. Sorry. You all know what i meant.
Mustapha,
I don’t care if they bombed Jounieh or wherever. They were attacked, and they retaliated against LEBANON.
No one here thinks that weakness is a good thing. I am all for strength. But I want strength through the Lebanese Armed forces where the decisions involving all of Lebanon (Jounieh included) are taken by a central government, not by a group of vigilantes. Let Hezb turn over all their missiles to the Army. Great. That’s what they would do if they truely believed in strengthening the Lebanese state. But they don’t.
As for Israel’s good intentions. I don’t understand your skepticism. Sure, Israel is not out to hand out good will to Lebanon. Nor should it. But you tell me, what other arab countries has Israel attacked in the past 30-40 years?
Howcome the Golan is so damned peaceful?
I mean, surely, if Israel had all these nefarious ambitions, they’d be destabilizing Jordan and Syria and Egypt too, right?
And how many times has Israel bombed or attacked Lebanon unprovoked? NONE.
Listen, I’m not excusing us being invaded or bombed to the stone age. It royally sucks. But come on…we have repeatedly brought it onto ourselves. The 1978 invasion was prompted by the PLO attacking Israel from the South. Same for 1982. And in 2006, it was Hezbollah provoking Israel.
Let’s cut the crap.
Your argument holds no water.
“If you want peace then prepare for war” must be one of the silliest popular sayings that sound good but in reality are irrational statements that are meaningless and full of contradictions.
Whatever happened to the idea that if you want an objective, if you really want to reach that goal then you work for it. If you want peace ten you work for peace is more like it. Let us not forget that peace is much more than the absence of war.
mustaphas says,
“Seniora should have responded with a speech of his own: “If the Israelis dare attack us, the entire Lebanese people will resist them as one body.”
what a laugh!
sanyoora “announcing” such a thing would be a baseless announcement. what would it be based on? wishful thinking? how would he have prepared the nation in order to actually resist? what a bunch of hot air. this is why the state is not ready/willing/capable/invested/motivated to defend the country.
and mustapha says,
By doing so, Seniora would achieve … He would confuse those trying to discredit him as a Zionist and perhaps initiate a political breakthrough.”
yes, sanyoora would CONFUSE. Exactly. not DISPROVE. and since he didn’t make such a glorious announcement, then he proved the exact opposite.
thanks, mustapha, for pointing it out.
“colossal surprise“
What does this mean? The only “colossal surprises” I could think of are:
1) Atomic warfare
2) Nasrallah admitting defeat
3) Hezbollah putting down their weapons
I don’t see any of these happening, at least not by Nasrallah’s command.
Israel has got the message loud and very clear. We are heading for peace. Threatening Israel is the only way top have Israel as a Friend, and not a Master.
I may not approve of Hezbollah’s ways, but it surely is effective with Israel.
I think I should start commenting without using my real name. Some people see Aoun and immediately jump to the conclusion that I am a member of FPM and I will follow Gen. Aoun to the moon and back.
Ralf, I don’t what you are on but let’s not forgot the present government did ask Iran for anti-aircraft missiles soon after the July War. I never said that the war was a victory. Its just your sectarian nature that is blinding you.
Israel has got the message loud and very clear. We are heading for peace. Threatening Israel is the only way top have Israel as a Friend, and not a Master.
How is Israel Lebanon’s master now? That’s ridiculous. Maybe Syria, but not Israel. As for friendship, you don’t seem to want any, but maybe you do want peace. Consider, then, that Jordan and Egypt only achieved peace with Israel when they decided to stop threatening Israel. There is a difference between being strong, and being threatening.
One can almost admire Hezbollah’s chutzpah.
Were it not for them (or a similar entity using Lebanon to stage attacks against Israel), Lebanon would have no reason to fear Israel.
Yet, they can claim, with a straight face, to be the PROTECTORS of Lebanon.
Al-Quds al-Arabi says today that the “surprise,” is Hezb’s ability to deliver chemical and biological weapons. Heaven help Lebanon if it is true.
Syria may well have some chemical and biological weapons derived from Saddam’s collection, or developed by former employees of Saddam.
Iran may well have some of its own.
Either party might be prepared to fire them at Israel from Hezb’allah territory. I think the response from Israel would be extreme. It is already well established from prisoner exchanges that one Israeli is worth a couple of hundred Arabs.
Mustapha,
You’re absolutely wrong. Mr. Siniora should not come with any response any time a demagogue like Nasrallah appears on a big screen in a clear display of egotistical bravado.
The question is not resistance. Why do the Lebanese treat this resistance thing as the most patriotic thing as far as Lebanon is concerned? Look at what this so-called resistance of Hezbollah brought to Lebanon. It destroyed its infrastructure with a senseless war. It paralyzed its financial district in order to serve foreign rogue states (Syria and Iran). It continues to paralyze the political institutions in total obedience to foreign agendas.
There are certainly other more important issues facing Lebanon than this so-called foreign tool of so-called resistance. And what is Lebanon resisting to be exact? Is not Lebanon bound by 1701 and 1559? Would it not make perfect sense to boldly proceed to the next logical step? i.e. normaslizing relations with the southern neighbour through internationally recognized treaties as the rest of the Arab world is clearly moving in that direction? Why should Lebanon remain a hostage to the whims of the demagogues of Damascus who know they are the only gateway of Lebanon to the Arab world? Aren’t these same demagogues ready and willing to lick the boots of the Israelis just to save their necks and their chairs? I always thought the Lebanese are smart and intelligent. But, resistance … come on give me a break.