This blogger needs convincing. Why are early elections in Lebanon such a bad idea?
“In a democracy, when a large amount of people demonstrate, you go to the ballot boxes; this is the natural thing to do”. Thus explained a member of the AK Party, the ruling party in Turkey, to the BBC anchor why his Leader P.M. Erdogan decided to conduct early general elections.
The “large amount of people” he was referring to was the hundreds of thousands of people who demonstrated against the candidacy of AK’s Abdullah Gul to the Turkish presidency. A paltry percentage, compared with the huge demonstration that the opposition organized in Lebanon on December 1rst.
When Aoun (pictured above) and Hezbollah ask for early elections, the March 14 media immediately ridicules them. And frankly, I fail to see why.
By vehemently opposing such elections, March 14 leaders are giving the impression that their current parliamentary share is the best they could ever have, and that they are trying to lock in their position. Are they really that weak electorally?
I am puzzled. March 14 Christians keep saying that Aoun is losing popularity, but yet unlike Aoun, they are scared from going to the ballot boxes. Don’t they trust the judgment of the Lebanese people?
Why doesn’t March 14 throw the ball in the court of the opposition by saying that they agree to elections only if the opposition agrees on an electoral law? Is it true that March 14 are blocking elections because people like Nayla Mouawad would lose if a new electoral law based on smaller district was agreed?
I sympathize with March 14, but I fail to see why they don’t want early elections. Could anyone please convince me?
Hello, my name is Mustapha and I've been blogging about Lebanese society, business and politics since February 2005.
Aren’t you aware that the 14th March people got about 1/3rd the country’s votes in the 2005 election. Aren’t you aware that the 2005 election law/alliance with Hizballah got them the parliamentary majority?
You don’t beleive them when they claim they are the majority do you?
March 14 is nothing without the Future Movement.
The Majority is on the other side. And once the Future Movement and Jumblatt start openly talking to the opposition, you will see a future for this country ( I think it is starting to happen). A Future for this country and it kind/nice people which will be based on respect for one another’s choices.
When you say that Aoun does not represent at least 69 percent of the Christian voting it is like you are saying Hariri or Jublatt don’t represent the majority on the other sides….Why don’t you see this!
Every body with a clear mind knows this as a fact, but it is the political war that drives denial sometimes.
So just go for elections if you need to get rid of Aoun, why are they(March 14) afraid? Because, they know the results in advance, and let me tell you that if the Lebanese elect their own president individually, the only one who will be in Ba3abda is Aoun. (Why not?, This person is a patriot and loves his country and its entire people). P.S. He is the only one who can say NO to the Iranians / Syrians / Americans / French / etc…
Thanks
Like anonymous says, in 2005, 14th March could not have acheived a stable majority without Hizballah.
In 2006 they are even less popular.
Im not sure what you mean when you say “if the opposition agrees to an aelectoral law”. That is precisely what they are asking for as the current lay totaly disenfranchised the Christian vote and limits Shia representation to 21% of Parliament.
One man, one vote, no secterian poisitions, pm and president elected by the people. Thats my ideal electoral law.
With all respect Abou Steif, March 14 leaders are hesitant about early elections because they might lead to an arguable outcome, in case the polls show a slight balance (which everyone expects but doesn’t know which side will it end on) in favour of one of the two megaparties, mainly due to two reasons:
1. There is a lack in transparency concerning the voting turnover, which is fuel by the acute bi-polarisation of the Lebanese votes; can you validate a 90% pro-March 14 in Menyeh even if it’s? or a 99.99% pro-8 March vote in Bent Jbeil?? both sides can argue back and forth over this one I’m sure, but no one from the opposite party would dare go up (or down) there and double-check, which will cause a lack of transparency; my proof for that would be the tense relation between Hizbullah and the UN forces, as well as the bad reception during the celebration of the Denniyyeh martyr a month ago.
2. March 8 are already blaming March 14 for mismanagement and mischief, which means that an early election result is a win-win situation for them; If they win with a slight majority fine, they’ll terrorise all of Lebanon all over again. If they lose, they will most likely create endless arguments and cause ‘constitutional void’ (faragh doustouri) as additional pressure over March 14 leaders
So you see Mustapha, there is a severe lack in trust between the two sides and neither can trust the other has really good intentions, or at least enough good intentions to preside over the elections.
My last comment is about your definition of democracy; you say that responding to a certain significant % demands early presidential and/or parliamentary election in Lebanon is a perfectly democratic thing to do, this is bad; let us assume that 80% of the Sunnis correspond to 20% of Lebanese and they want to approve the international tribunal, why don’t they have it yet? or 90% of the shiaas want to remove Fouad Siniora, which is around 25% of Lebanon, why don’t we go ahead and do it? you can’t have a free democracy in Lebanon without taking into account the delicate fabric of the smaller societies in it right? either evthg together or nothing at all and that is what March 14 is saying from the beginning right??
Think it over, and ponder the following question: How does Aoun intend to win the presidential elections in the event of a populist presidential vote? there lies your answer
It amazes me how people can think and react to current events!
Can I ask all of you out there how are we suppossed to go into earlier elections? Don’t we need a new electoral law first? And who exactly is going to make this new law? Does the opposition consider the government a valid one to actually propose a new law? Will the so called president sign such a law from a government he doesn’t consider “contitutional”? How will the Parliament hold a session when its Speaker don’t consider the government a “legal” one? And what kind of law would all Lebanese agree upon? And can we hold such elections before the Presidential one?
Say we were able to find solutions for all these things above, can you tell me what the first thing the coming minority will do? REFUSE THE RESULTS, ASK FOR RE-ELECTIONS, AND START ITS OWN SIT-IN AT DT!! Why not? the minority before it did the same thing, so why shouldn’t the new one do that too??!!
We have to respect the fine-tune of our democratic system. We need a good electoral law, that would help bring true representatives more than we need early elections. We need people to understand that when they are the minority, they don’t get to put the country on hold. But most importantly we need people to THINK a alittle bit!
Those in favor of electing the president directly from the people, can you please tell me how is that going to solve our problems? How will the Christian President be a representative of the Christians when s/he is elected by Muslims? Would such thing preserve our so-called balance? Georges Adwan said it loud and clear: “When all sects start immigrating outside Liban, come and talk to me about changing the constitution, and electing the president directly from the people, but when you have this huge demographic dysfunctionality, don’t even think of adapting new methods in electing our representatives”.
And for those supporting Aoun, can you guys please tell me how will Aoun be able to fight Syrians/Iranians or at least try to disarm HA if he is to become the next president? Well HA and its gang allow him to do so? Or he will simply be HA’s puppet, and once he say no, HA will throw him away?
Elections are held once every four years, the majority rules, and the minority oppose WITHOUT PUTTING THE COUNTRY ON HOLD. This is how things are, and when two/thirds of the Parliament agrees on changing the constitution, then you can talk about such changes. Till then, accept the reality as it is, and don’t start a new wave that will lead to no where.
i second failasoof. how are we supposed to pass something as controversial and significant as a new electoral law when lahoud won’t even sit to approve the appointment of new foreign consuls? and we obviously CAN’T have elections under the 2000 law again, as much as the opposition would like that!!!
it’s yet another of the opposition’s lovely catch-22s.
One of the most important parts of democracy is the orderly transfer of power, and respecting the results of the election and the system. If the March 14 people were fairly elected in a democratic election, then that needs to be respected. Likewise, the timing of elections must be respected, unless new law is passed or some other legal process results in a new election.
There cannot be any encouragement of mass protests resulting in toppled governments without due process. This breaks down the democratic system and encourages any future election losers to dispute the results ad nauseam and cripple the country and the system. In this case, it might even encourage more violent protests from future election losers, regardless of who it is. The point of democracy is to allow the governing body to shift with public opinion at the appropriate intervals, not to force your favourite guy in now and never relinquish power.
If you want to protect the democratic institutions of Lebanon, you have to respect the election results and respect the system. If the system needs to be changed, then change it through legal process.
If the system is so bad it needs to be completely and thoroughly overhauled, then start a bona fide revolution. Just don’t fool yourself into thinking this is what the democratic process is about. Revolutions are sometimes necessary, to arrive at a satisfactory solution. But the risks are huge, and they must be weighed carefully. And it might erase whatever democratic process you once had… assuming you want it in the first place.
Going to the ballot boxes whenever there is a protest is not natural.
Mustapha,
The question should rather be reversed, can you convince me that there needs to be an early election ? I fail to see why an election is warranted at this point. Playing the call for elections game is a dagerous thing. If March 8 wins an early election then it would be completely legitimate for March 14 to ask for a re-election, so on and so forth. It’s an endless cycle. I say let’s wait and see what Brammetz and the international investigation will say before any election calls are issued.
The whole thing is much trickier than just calling for new laws. The legislative and judicial systems have to be revamped, and the constitution amended but yet safeguarded. Who are the right people to do this?
Yes, we have to de-sectarianize our political arena but again how will we do that?
The answer is through education and enlightenment and its a process that starts with the children at school and will take generations to achieve. Once people put the well being of the country before what their religious community or (sectarian)party leader thinks then we can tackle these issues.
Calling for early elections without discussing the electoral law is putting the cart before the horse. March 14 has seriously fumbled by appearing to block the electoral reform, making itself look like it’s only interested in holding on to power as long as possible. What M14 should do is to take the initiative and start discussing the electoral law in the cabinet (as well as in the media) and swiftly pass it to the parliament the same way they did with the international tribunal. This approach would have multiple advantages: it would help M14 regain the trust of the public that they’re not afraid of fair elections, it would let them make sure that the law is indeed fair for all and not only for Hezbollah and its allies, and it would put the opposition in the awkward situation of obstructing the law as long as Berri keeps the parliament closed and Lahoud refuses to sign anything.
Why are March 14 such wimps when it comes to popular reforms such as the electoral law? The deeper they dig their heels in, the more they will lose when the elections finally come (whether they’re early or in schedule).
Not to mention the reworking of the public appointment laws; why is Lebanon so full of educated people while its political class is so full of uneducated ones????
I mean I’d love to see somewhere a list of the entry requirements for the Lebanese ministers, in such a way that would ensure the transparency of the accountability procedure.
Therefore, I strongly agree with you guys that we need an overhaul of the election laws, as well as a rewriting of the Lebanese public administration system (Qanoun al tanzim el idari) from top to bottom.
I’m sort of shocked at Mustapha’s suggestion for early elections – and for all the reasons that FaiLaSooF and TPL state. It will set a dangerous precedent and more than that (IMO)there is nothing in the Lebanese Constitution that supports an early election. Once you start ignoring the Constitution, where do you stop? The Electoral Commission report was on th agenda to be discussed on July 12 – ooops! and it’s languished in a drawer ever since. It needs to be back on the table and let’s all watch the ‘opposition’ refuse to work on it.
Realistically, if they all went back to work on Monday and pledged to do only 2 things – fix the election laws and fix the Constitution Council (which is going to be essential before any election) then it will probably take the full 18 months of haggling and arguing to get it done, and presto! – that will be just in time for the scheduled elections. Any President that might be agreed should only serve a 2 year term.
Mustapha, I’m just as puzzled as you.