It really all depends on how you frame the situation.

Let’s think of today’s demo this way: It’s the day we get the chance to play President Lahhoud. Call it the Halloween of Lebanese politics.

Yes, ladies and gentleman, thousands and thousands of people will be chanting for us to leave, they will shout, scream, pull their hair, knock their heads on walls, cry foul, call injustice, evoke unconstitutionality, and we’ll simply ignore them with a dry “Sanioura baken li akher wilayatahou” (Sanioura will stay till the end of his term)

At the end of the day, they’ll get tired, they’ll get bored and they’ll slowly wither away and go back to their houses, universities and shops.

Yes, today is our day.

While we sit comfortably in our houses with our Lebanese flags hanging on our windows, we give them a taste of their own obstinacy.

To listen live to Seniora’s upcoming speech (8:00 Lebanon time, 6:00 GMT), go to this website, then click on live audio at the top right.


After the speech is over, please feel free to share with us what you think in the comments section below.

On the FPM’s website, there’s a strip of text explaining the tayyar’s position vis-a-vis tomorrow’s actions. After all this is over, the Future Movement should reflect well on its content.

Here’s what it says:

They accuse us of rapprochement with Hezbollah, the same people who were allied with them in the parliamentary elections, the same people who formed a government with them. As for us, we are forbidden from allying ourselves with the Future Movement or with Hezbollah and Amal.

Who’s the Machiavelli who decides those “truths”?

If those people understood politics well, things wouldn’t have reached to what they have reached today.

I have two observations on the above:

- This is the second time I sense that Aoun was originally interested in allying himself with the Future Movement. The first time was in a TV show when the FPM’s media coordinator said: “The FPM and the FM have very similar economic agendas, it’s a shame that they’re on different isles.” (remember the famous incident when Hariri went to rabieh and a Smiling Aoun said that the two parties have “99% in common?”)

- I sense a hint of contrition from the FPM. If they say: things wouldn’t have reached what they have reached today. It means they’re to a certain extent sorry about what they’ll “have to do” tomorrow.

The worst mistake March 14 can make is to confront tomorrow’s demonstration.

Michel Aoun has decided to use the street to try to usurp power. Fine, let him demonstrate. After all, we live in a free country.

But here’s a friendly advice to my buddies in the Lebanese Forces:
Stay away from them. Don’t be provoked and don’t repeat the Sassine square mistake. Maintain the moral high ground, or you’ll give the FPM the chance to become a martyr like it’s painstakingly trying to portray itself. The FPM thrives on feeling victimized. Don’t give it that pleasure.

Let them stand there naked in front of the whole world.

As Micheal Young puts it today:

At the street level, the March 14 approach to the Aounists must be exactly the opposite of what happened at Sassine. Instead of provoking them, leave them to face the consequences of their actions. Aoun is his own worst enemy. Build a safety net for his followers, but let the general hang himself with his own rope, if he insists on doing so.

Here’s something I’ve noticed in both Tayyars in this country.
Much like George Bush, they’re using scaremongering and victimization to drum up their bases.

Arman Homsi, Annahar

Yesterday, the Future Movement mobilized its media with loud headlines about a Syrian plot to assassinate 36 Lebanese figures, just to get one message across to its core Northern Sunni constituency: “They’re out there to get you”

Also, for the last two days, Michel Aoun’s FPM has been mobilizing its media with news about Qouwet baddies getting armed and wanting to assassinate their leader, and today, invade their party offices. The purpose, also, is to send their supporters one message, you guessed it: “They’re out there to get you”

My problem is not with the news themselves. There might as well be Syrian terrorists on the lose or plans to invade the FPM’s offices. What I find appalling is the loud, nerve-breaking media alarmism which is clearly serving as a political tool. If there are terrorists on the lose, fine, but do you have to shout loud about it in a newspaper manchette? let the security people take care of it. Same with the “Qouwet invadors”. In both cases, arrests have already been made.

The technique works in the short term, but in the long term, it will create resentment and people will feel used. But there’s another reason why politicians should quit the scaremongering: people have daily lives to take care of.