It really all depends on how you frame the situation.

Let’s think of today’s demo this way: It’s the day we get the chance to play President Lahhoud. Call it the Halloween of Lebanese politics.

Yes, ladies and gentleman, thousands and thousands of people will be chanting for us to leave, they will shout, scream, pull their hair, knock their heads on walls, cry foul, call injustice, evoke unconstitutionality, and we’ll simply ignore them with a dry “Sanioura baken li akher wilayatahou” (Sanioura will stay till the end of his term)

At the end of the day, they’ll get tired, they’ll get bored and they’ll slowly wither away and go back to their houses, universities and shops.

Yes, today is our day.

While we sit comfortably in our houses with our Lebanese flags hanging on our windows, we give them a taste of their own obstinacy.

To listen live to Seniora’s upcoming speech (8:00 Lebanon time, 6:00 GMT), go to this website, then click on live audio at the top right.


After the speech is over, please feel free to share with us what you think in the comments section below.

On the FPM’s website, there’s a strip of text explaining the tayyar’s position vis-a-vis tomorrow’s actions. After all this is over, the Future Movement should reflect well on its content.

Here’s what it says:

They accuse us of rapprochement with Hezbollah, the same people who were allied with them in the parliamentary elections, the same people who formed a government with them. As for us, we are forbidden from allying ourselves with the Future Movement or with Hezbollah and Amal.

Who’s the Machiavelli who decides those “truths”?

If those people understood politics well, things wouldn’t have reached to what they have reached today.

I have two observations on the above:

- This is the second time I sense that Aoun was originally interested in allying himself with the Future Movement. The first time was in a TV show when the FPM’s media coordinator said: “The FPM and the FM have very similar economic agendas, it’s a shame that they’re on different isles.” (remember the famous incident when Hariri went to rabieh and a Smiling Aoun said that the two parties have “99% in common?”)

- I sense a hint of contrition from the FPM. If they say: things wouldn’t have reached what they have reached today. It means they’re to a certain extent sorry about what they’ll “have to do” tomorrow.

The worst mistake March 14 can make is to confront tomorrow’s demonstration.

Michel Aoun has decided to use the street to try to usurp power. Fine, let him demonstrate. After all, we live in a free country.

But here’s a friendly advice to my buddies in the Lebanese Forces:
Stay away from them. Don’t be provoked and don’t repeat the Sassine square mistake. Maintain the moral high ground, or you’ll give the FPM the chance to become a martyr like it’s painstakingly trying to portray itself. The FPM thrives on feeling victimized. Don’t give it that pleasure.

Let them stand there naked in front of the whole world.

As Micheal Young puts it today:

At the street level, the March 14 approach to the Aounists must be exactly the opposite of what happened at Sassine. Instead of provoking them, leave them to face the consequences of their actions. Aoun is his own worst enemy. Build a safety net for his followers, but let the general hang himself with his own rope, if he insists on doing so.

Here’s something I’ve noticed in both Tayyars in this country.
Much like George Bush, they’re using scaremongering and victimization to drum up their bases.

Arman Homsi, Annahar

Yesterday, the Future Movement mobilized its media with loud headlines about a Syrian plot to assassinate 36 Lebanese figures, just to get one message across to its core Northern Sunni constituency: “They’re out there to get you”

Also, for the last two days, Michel Aoun’s FPM has been mobilizing its media with news about Qouwet baddies getting armed and wanting to assassinate their leader, and today, invade their party offices. The purpose, also, is to send their supporters one message, you guessed it: “They’re out there to get you”

My problem is not with the news themselves. There might as well be Syrian terrorists on the lose or plans to invade the FPM’s offices. What I find appalling is the loud, nerve-breaking media alarmism which is clearly serving as a political tool. If there are terrorists on the lose, fine, but do you have to shout loud about it in a newspaper manchette? let the security people take care of it. Same with the “Qouwet invadors”. In both cases, arrests have already been made.

The technique works in the short term, but in the long term, it will create resentment and people will feel used. But there’s another reason why politicians should quit the scaremongering: people have daily lives to take care of.

Question: If you mix the profiles of two parties who belong to one side of the political divide, what do you get?

Answer: A new party on the other side of the political divide.

Meet March 14′s newest member: Attayar Al-Shee3y Al-Hurr, or FPS (Free Patriotic Shiaas.) They have just issued a statement, check it out.

How fair is it for the March 14 group to invoke a 9-year-old Nassrallah statement to further their political objectives?

In today’s edition, the March 14 official website digs up an obscure Nassrallah interview with Assafir back in November 1997. In the interview, Hezbollah’s head said that civil disobedience in principle is unacceptable unless it is ordered by Al-Wali al-Fakeeh, (a supreme supra-nationalist Shiaa authority.)

Supporters of such tactics would argue that Nassrallah’s interview revealed his ideological convictions, and that such convictions do not change with time. In other words, the forthcoming civil disobedience by Nassrallah would be based on orders from outside the Lebanese territories. Some would even say that this interview is aimed at Christian Aounists who believe that today’s struggle is a pure Lebanese matter. But is this a wise PR move by March 14?

The move is wrong for two reasons. One is moral, the other is tactical.

First, people change. You can’t discount the amount of experience one can get in 9 years. We as human beings are subject to constant experiences that continuously mold our personalities and beliefs through time. Did you know for example that Hariri as a student was a communist?

The other reason why such PR tactics are ill-advised, is purely one of self interest. Most of March 14′s houses are made of glass and throwing stones at opponents can backfire. The last thing the Lebanese need is Al-manar TV, Al-akhbar, New TV and NBN, getting filled with old speeches by Jumblat waxing poetics on Lebanese-Syrian fraternity, or with recording by Samir Geagea admitting to killing people…

The tactic smacks of cheap pettiness and should be immediately revised.

Make love, not war, Lebanon style…

From the “fertile” brains of columnist Georges Nassif.

Also notice the title of the piece. It can read: Lan yabka baladon litourakkibouh (there won’t be any country left to be fixed), but it can also read: Lan yabka baladon litarkabouh (there won’t be any country left to “ride”)

PS: If anyone can translate this into English without losing the bang, please step forward (Tony? Eve?)

Is sanity beginning to creep into Lebanese public life?
Is it time for a large collective breath of relief?

One of the highest Shiaa figures in Lebanon, the vice president of the Lebanese Highest Council of Shiaas has asked the Lebanese not to take to the streets.. Read more (Arabic)..

The uncertainty in Lebanon has taken its toll on my planned wedding.

no longer..

We were getting prepared for our wedding in early January.

We have set the date, reserved the hall and made a non-refundable down payment to the fancy place just north of Beirut (picture).

For the last three days, though, most of our invitees have been pressuring us not to have our wedding outside of Tripoli (where we’re both from). They say it’s not safe.
“My friends parents have decided not to allow them to go to party in Beirut”, my sad fiancée told me, “no matter how nice the wedding is, it will be terrible if the invitees didn’t show up”

It pains me that we might have to reschedule everything, but I guess things could have been worse.