Mullah Trumps Eagle
The Lebanese Prime Minister might have met the American President, but don’t be too happy, Iran is where the real power has moved
Nothing cheered up the March 14 supporters more than the sight of their champion Mr. Seniora shoulder to shoulder with the man who’s supposed to be the world’s most powerful. The pictures of the smiling men getting all chummy with each other were gleefully posted in Almustaqbal’s and Annahar’s front pages this morning.
Yet with all the swagger, the pomp and the work launches in the oval office, the real power in the region is moving to Tehran, where a Hezbollah delegation sneaked with much less fanfare to “congratulate” the Iranians for their new Nuclear prowess.
This letter by Arnold Pedowitz to the New York Times explains very well the American predicament with Iran:
President Bush should be held responsible for Iran’s nuclear threat. He recklessly attacked Iraq with no exit strategy [..] In doing so, President Bush abused the moral imperative, wasted our fiscal and human resources, embittered the Arab world and squandered this country’s limited tolerance for war. Now, when confronted with a true threat, we have been rendered powerless.
The key word here would be powerless. Iran has played the game right. It surprised the world with enriching Uranium and, by raising the stakes and consolidating its alliances, has being playing the brinkmanship game with much more skill than the Americans.
The sad thing is the implication of such power shift on Lebanon. When a UN diplomat asks Syria to “establish embassies and delineate the border between Syria and Lebanon”, the now-smug Iranian-backed Hezbollah can feel free to publicly denounce him as “serving Israel’s agenda”.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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Mustapha,
Different people look at the same facts and arrive at different conclusions. This has always been the case and I am confident will always be the case:-) that what makes a horse race.
The current Iraq war has been under the microscope since at least a year before it started and there is nothing new to the idea that Iran has been so far the primary beneficiary. What I am objecting too, rather vociverously, is the fact that you think that it is so important to document your hypothesis by a letter, one letter, to the editor of the NYT by an Arnold Pedowitz. Who to the #%&* is Arnold Pedowitz? Why should I take his seven line letter as anything important? When you present a whole quote from Mr.Pedowitz as the sole supporting evidence for your point of view then you are presenting him as an authority on this issue when the truth is that he is just a NTC lawywer who has written a letter to the editor. There are, as well as you know, thousands of such letters written and published on a daily basis that cover the gamut of the ideological spectrum. Such letters are usually published as a gestsher by the editor to diversity, openness and democracy. They do not bestow any specisl privilege or credibility on the writer.
I tend to disagree sort of with the bleak assesment. To be sure, I do not advocate war by any means. However, this doesn’t mean that the United States militarily speaking is more than capable of waging war against Iran, and winning. The U.S. war strategy against Iran doesn’t call for a ground invasion or any ground forces for that matter besides small amounts of Special Forces troops. The U.S. will attack Iran from the sea, effectively destroying its Navy within a few days and blockading Iran if that is what they want to do. They will bomb Iran from the air, firstly wiping out its air force virtually within a few days as well, and within a week, rendering all of Iran’s air defenses ineffective for the most part against U.S. aircraft. The U.S. will then not only be able to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, but pretty much do whatever the heck it wants to. Iran’s situation will be similar to that of Iraq’s after the first Gulf War. They will have no fly zones and will be at the mercy of the U.S.
The reason I say this is because any attack on Iran will definitely mean a military response from it, and Iran’s military, if not dealt with forcfully and swiftly, has the capability to do some damage. That is why if the American’s do attack Iran, it will be with full force. To be sure, the U.S. will suffer losses and God only knows what will happen to the price of oil, but at the end of the day, Iran will not only be checked, but will be at the mercy of the U.S. Do you think Ahmedinejad or Khamenei will dare pop their heads in public? They would surely get bombed to shreds.
Thus, the power is not with Iran, but it still with the U.S.A. The reason why I believe there may very well be war is because the Iranians stupidly are taking the America’s problems in Iraq as a sign of weakness, and are therefore stepping up their rhetoric and defiance. IF they keep doing so, they will pay a heavy price. The brand new 5th generation U.S. fighter plane the F-22 Raptor has been made operational in December 2005 with the U.S. Air Force, and it is begging for a fight. How the Iranians even think they can win a war with the country that won both World Wars, the second in two theaters, and the Cold War, is beyond me.
Ghassan,
For Every article written The NYT receives thousands of letters from all kinds of american readers of which they select a few that are representative of the balance of opinions recieved.
Even among the selected letters, Mr. Pedowitz’s was very representative…
Mustapha,
A letter to the editor of the NYT by a Mr. Nobody does not add any legitimacy to your argument. In fact it distracts from it especially when that letter by Mr. Nobody occupies the central stage in your post. That is no different than my using a letter to Al Jazzira to support the hypothesis that Bashar is a decent guy.
Ghassan,
The premise of your argument is sound however it doesn’t take away from the fact that Mr. Pedowitz is right to some degree. Iran is now more of a threat than it has ever been. That is not to say that they absolutely cannot be kept in check, but they won’t be attacked any time soon, at least not by this administration. Let them fix the mess they created in Iraq.