The problem with politics is that the surface means nothing. We don’t know if Saniora is being blacklmailed for instance, after all wasn’t he accused of some sort of shaky financial dealings just a few years ago? We don’t know if Hariri’s family is being physically threatened and him just becoming a father again. We don’t know, we don’t know, we don’t know. It’s good to keep in mind that these players in this dangerous game need to think of their safety first and nobody wants to die willingly and in all honesty, I don’t know if we want their blood on our hands as in, “they died for Lebanon.” We prefer EVERYONE alive even if it means becoming impatient with the process.

Mustapha, I agree with what you said. I was going to post on this but you beat me to it. Hariri and co appear very weak and are letting Hizbullah walk all over them.

i m disappointed from a long time by the future

saniora made too many mistakes that i wont be enumerating and compromises and i think it s due to joumblatt’s policy of dividing in order to have a political existance

they also got rooten by leading a post syrian occupation government with the presence of warlord representants inside it.
this is why they are loosing credibility among the population.

Dear Al, kindly explain “rooten” to me.

Why are the lebanese still hungover on the removal of lahoud. Work the country out dammnit and let lahoud be till the end of his presidency. For a year, insults have been flying (as you pointed out) but to no avail. Let him be and when his time comes, he shall leave. The problem is the current government has an “excuse” not to work (lahoud) and i wonder what it will be once he is gone…

I dont see a serious group of people willing to do much in lebanon at all..pity.

lak sa3dan rja3 3al shajra. enta meen sa’alak ra’yak?

“Al” what the heck is the word rooten mean? This post has nothing to do with Jumblatt yet you throw him under the bus. Let me guess you are either a dumb syrian or a dumb PRO syrian!?! Rooten, huh!?!
Anyways, I hope Lahoud, bashar the jack ass, nasrallah, berri, arslan, sleiman franjieh, and the rest of the dumb syrians along with the dumb pro syrians just go out buy a gun and shoot themselves to death. so we could get rid of this garbage and make lebanon LEBANESE again, not pro syrian shit!

GOD BLESS LEBANON!

tara asma3 ya pity the fool. I like it more down here. The trees arent as good as they used to be. They promised us unity and peace. We have none…just more bickering. And for gods (or whatever deity you believe in) sake, stop blaming syria and outside forces. Yes they still play a part but unless we take matters into our own hands, we wont move forward. This blame game does nothing but delay and irritate.

gimme a banana ill get back up.

It has been obvious to this observer for months ( I have posted on this numerous times) that HA and a pro democracy grouping is an incongrous misture. It has always been the case and nothing will ever change this , no meaningful solution can ever be expected from such a group whose members have completely contradictory views on practically every issue. Yhe only solution is for the pro democracy group to proceed in governing without HA. If they cannot muster enough votes in order to do that then they should excuse themselves and become the opposition. The charade must end if anythiong is to be salvaged.

tara asma3? What does that mean? I don’t know, maybe it’s me but it’s like i woke up one day and everybody is speaking a different language. ta3 ta ‘esma3? tara shu esmak? I don’t get it.

khidlak banana sa3dan w rou7 nam.

I disagree when you say that the FM need to get wiser. In my opinion, they are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and have no where to really go. Electing GMA as President is NOT AN OPTION for them, because half of them would eventually be implicated in corruption and similar scandalous things. Berri is scared of the same thing as well, but since he needs Hezbollah now to win seats in Parliament, whatever Hezbollah’s position is he will take, so you can count him out of the equation since his positions are those of Hezbollah.

Also, the Future Movement know that it is them that gave Hezbollah more seats than they deserve in Parliament by making sure the Ghazi Kanaan electoral law got implemented. So now they are stuck. They were the ones that made Hezbollah this strong, so they only have themselves to blame for their predicament. They can’t attack anyone about it, they certaintly can’t formulate strategy against themselves to correct the situation. They know they can’t get rid of Lahoud without GMA now, since there is no way Hezbollah will agree to it, but GMA won’t agree unless he is the next President, rightly so. However, like I said, the FM would rather keep Lahoud than have GMA, because with Lahoud around, a fellow “thief” so to speak, at least their ruling class won’t be touched.

However, GMA ascedency to the Presidency would shake this corrupt class to its core. Thus, Lahoud and the “March 14″ gang have more in common than they think. I mean at the end of the day, this whole conflict from begining to end boils down to who was going to end up robbing the most, Lahoud, Jamil al-Sayyed and gang, or Hariri, Jumblat, and the bunch. Bashar stepped in on the side of Lahoud and the others in the security establishment. The thing about Lahoud now, is that he knows he is screwed either way, now, or in one and a half years, so he’d rather have GMA take the helm, because at least then he will have a chance of revenge not being carried out.

Thus, we are in the situation we are in today. Jumblat’s actions backfired, Hariri’s strategy and inaction misfired, the pressure is off the Syrians, for now, and Lahoud is not going anyone till he finishes his term.

Either way, FM/PSP/LF are only winning time in all of this, because the next Parliamentary elections are going to be held under a fair electoral law. In this situation, they know they won’t have the majority anymore, no matter what they do. Berri defintely won’t be speaker again, so the clock is ticking for him, Lahoud, and the “March 14″ group.
The winners as of now are the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah. There is also a chance that Michel el-Murr MIGHT get dumped next election, there will be 8 people on the FPM list in Metn next time for sure not 7, so Pierre Gemayel’s days are numbered as well.

The political scene in Lebanon is changing to a more democratic one. Movements that were based on economic and political elitism such as the FM and PSP are on the decline, while more broad based mass peoples’ movements like Hezbollah and FPM are on the rise. Learn to live with it, because historical forces can’t be stopped.

I would like to add, in the broader view, the same thing happened in the Palestinian elections. To me, it is not about Hamas being Islamic and Fatah being secular. It is about Fatah being elitist while Hamas is a populist movement. In Iraq, Iyad Allawi, the elitist ex-Premier, lost severly in the elections, while the populist Shia and Sunni movements (think Muqtada) won big. Look at Egypt as well, had the elections been fair, the Muslim Brotherhood would have swept them clean. Just some food for thought.

ma titfalsaf habibi
(to pity za fool)
give me zum fool instead of banana

You can’t blame the majority for this paralysis. They have the vision but they cannot execute because of Lahoud. The presidency has a lot of veto power. The people i blame for this paralysis is mostly the FPM who still want to protest that piece of shit Lahoud!

correction: above

word is protect not protest

zum fool? you mean like zoom ghaseel? tayib, khalass, I give up, sa3dan is speaking khartoumi.

GREAT BLOG ! YOU’RE HUGE MUSTAPHA !

LONG LIVE MUSTAPHA
LONG LIVE NASSIB

“Arab countries are afraid of Bashar Al-Asad and of his tiny group that monopolizes the country.” [Lord Djumbalatt the Kurdish Trotskyite turncoat and March 14 Fool-in-Chief]

Coming from the leader of a miniscule heretic sect that was unfairly alloted half of important portfolios in the current Harirista government, well that’s grand albeit on the unreal side of grand!

For the record, here’s another typical quote from freedom loving Haririst-in-chief Walid Jumblatt (criticizing Michel Aoun in a March 2000 interview):
“We condemn those who revive claims that Syria is a foe and an enemy [...] advocates of this claim, which proved to be destructive to Lebanon, have not learned from the past.”

I’m not sure if that makes him “a keen reader of history” as you say.
“Cynical courtier” or “callous collaborator” comes to mind…

“You can’t blame the majority for this paralysis. They have the vision but they cannot execute because of Lahoud. The presidency has a lot of veto power. The people i blame for this paralysis is mostly the FPM who still want to protest that piece of shit Lahoud!”

well i m totally disagreeing
they have a vision just to overthrow lahoud, but are not proposing any alternative.
this is the key of the problem
more then that they are attacking a puppet. we are in a parlementary system and the real strong guy inside this system is not lahoud but another pro syrian : berry
let them first target the real objective and not lead the crowd to new mistakes and new frustrations
more then that they made huges political mistakes last year by not organising legitimate elections by a new electoral law and here again the action of berry leaded to the situation we know now.
i dont care who ll be the president but i care about his legitimacy in the front of all lebanese. and who ever is the president elected by this chamber is not having legitimacy as long as this chamber was elected (and thx to berry again) by the electoral law of 2000 . i m keeping repeting it since 2005.

this is why i think that the current governement will be loosing more and more his popular and intellectual support

this anonymous doesnt know his subject at all since he s not pragmatic and partial

i ll just add that i guess the main person responsible of these policy is joumblatt for reasons i wont detail here

we just need to focus on his personal reasons to lead to conflicts such as his statements in the US were done and also the funny thing: why the american told him to shut up

“this anonymous doesnt know his subject at all since he s not pragmatic and partial”

Mr frencheagle,

I disagree. Berry and his shiaa constituency have always been pro-Syrians conspiracy theorists believing all their problems are rooted in America and Israel. Therefore I don’t expect much from Berri in terms of moving Lebanon forward. Any positive contribution from him I view as a bonus. The FPM on the other hand are pure phonies. First, GMA claims to be principled. What then happened to 1559 which he used to claim to have co-authored? Since he got back to Lebanon he barely mentions 1559 and he’s done nothing but unite the ranks of pro-Syrian groups when they were heading towards political oblivion (to be specific people like Franjieh, Arslan, and HA). Second, GMA claims to be secular. It is painfully obvious that the only reason he is defending Lahoud is because he is a maronite. He views this as protecting the Christian power seat. He should be at the forefront of asking for the sacking of Lahoud because he is a disgrace to the Lebanese and especially to the Maronites. (I would like to note that I have been a supporter of GMA, I was demonstrating in Baabda back in 1989. Since he got back to Lebanon, I have been shocked by the positions he has taken and he no longer represent my views).

You like to bash Joumblatt for everything that he has done in the past, but you don’t seem to want to see what Joumblatt is doing now. Judge him for his actions today. At least he publicly stated that he had made mistakes back in the days and he is now committed to make a change. Everything he says today should make you proud as a Lebanese. I think he should applauded for that. If you had an enemy in the past, and today he comes to you and says, listen I made a mistake, but now I want to help you get where you want to go because it is in our collective interest, would you accept his help or you would take up arms and resume your revenge?

As for the legitimacy of the parliament. Yes it was based on a flawed electoral law. But have you forgotten the circumstances we were under last year?? You want to implement a perfect electoral law, carry out elections, fight the Syrians, deal with the shebaa issue, the Palestinian arms, and the presidency issues all in a matter of weeks? All under targeted assassinations? I think given the circumstances we have done very well in bringing this parliament and this government to power. We all should be applauded for this. I would take this parliament with all its flaws any time over the parliament that existed before it. Don’t forget that.

One last thing. If Geogea and Jumblatt can but their differences aside and unite for the sake of Lebanon, then so can GMA. So far he has shown to be nothing but a selfish and divisive figure.

3:34 anon

I agree with 3:34 anon , he is totally right , there is a very important thing , can you stop someone for having redemptions ?? per example gma always says that the 14thmarch-alliance (except the LF) were all pro-syrians at a certain point , but can you blame them for changing their mind ? or would you rather ally with the pro-syrians at the time being , what would u prefer for the sake of Lebanon : to ally with the EX-pro-syrians or with the PRO-syrians ?
Ok , now , about the syrian presence in Lebanon , how can gma say that the syrians are out since they got out and the F.D.L.P. C.G. is still here and outside the camps , how can he say that with the armed-to-the-teeth complements of the syrian politics hezbollah ? how can he say that with assurance ? this is ridiculous , i consider that the syrians are still here , their intelligence is in a great majority ” un-officially ” here (wich is very logic since they are intelligence, but they are so stupid that u can recognize them immediately [smell , clothes , cars , looks])anyway it’s very disapointing from gma , but i’m not very surprised , he wasn’t very lucid in the late 89-90 , he was mistaken in his way towards the syrians , and crucially wrong with the LF , now he’s giving the syrians the only thing they couldn’t get in all the Lebanese war and in the post-war period , a Christian cover for their politics and allies in Lebanon .
Bravo gma , u have pissed on all your martyrs and all the martyrs that died for Lebanon , and i really pity his brainwashed ”tararatatat geneghal” partisans … omg how they are being bluffed by a crazy diabetic schizophrenic prostate-cancer suffering delusional son of a hoe … lol

@ omega ” tararatatat geneghal”

I really hope that we get early elections so that u and all ur friends wake up from ur orange dream that u got 80% of the Christian population , now he got that under heavy and very particular circumstances , people were depressed and totally forgot about aoun’s delusional talks and mere politics , we’re gonna see how you and ur pro-syrians-allies are gonna be squashed and pissed on in the next elections , ah and dun forget to watch the news tommorrow , coz gma is never and i say NEVER be president and i bet one of my balls on it becoz first of all , he’s totally delusional now wich is a problem becoz he was half-delusional in the 90’s and look what he did ,and becoz he might die of a high sugar level in his blood , or of a heart attack or metastasys of his prostate cancer , whatever , the 14th of alliance doesn’t want it , the americans don’t want him , the french , the british , the arabs , hell everyone except the syrians and the iranians , so get real , go tell ur moron friends and WAKE UP !!! hahahahaha

Die Hard, we patriotic Lebanese don’t care what the Americans or the French or the South Africans or the Taiwanese think and who they think should be President. Your masters might, but we don’t. The LF represents 5,000 youth, the same 5,000 youth that you always see, and Bsharre and a few villages, so we won’t even mention them. The PSP represent the Druze, not all of them even. The FM represents Sunnis, but not all of them either. Thus the “March 14″ alliance doesn’t represent most Lebanese, I can safely say. They came to power on Ghazi Kanaan’s Law, ask most Christians and Shia what they think about Saad Hariri khaye then come talk to me. Ask most CHristians what they think of Samir Geagea then come talk to me, so if I were you, I wouldn’t inflate my chest and act like I was on the path to self righteousness just yet.

GMA is going to be the next President whether u like it or not. If the FM wants to break the rules of the Taef Accord, they do so at their own peril. Things aren’t done selectively here. Michel Aoun is the strongest Maronite candidate for President. No one comes even CLOSE. If they FM choose to ignore this, and think that Samir Geagea, Butrous Harb, and Nefnefe Mouwad represent much, they will have to face the social and political consequences. IF the FM thinks that they can do what the Syrians did, which is to completely control the country, they are going to get a big suprise. Just like how Lahoud was supposed to be gone by March 14, just like how they were supposed to win 90 seats, just like how Edmond Naim was going to be replaced by another LFer, but instead they agreed to Dakkache. Maybe it was because they had no other choice?

There are three paths to power: Force, Money, or Knowledge. The least effecient is Force, then Money, then Knowledge, which means many things basically. Thus, when you are basing your power on money, and others on knowledge, those that are basing it on knowledge are eventually going to win. Take care buddy, see you in B3abdaa!

I think you are eating too much oranges my dear friend , this what i call day-dreaming … keep on dreaming we’ll c what happens on the national dialogue .

the problem is general Megalomania, he single handedly sabotaged all March 14th progress, by selling his soul to be president

Or maybe, “March 14″ is keeping Lahoud in power because they know that if GMA is President and there is an audit, half of them would wind up in jail, ever think of that? At least Lahoud is part of the same corrupt class as they are. Their only problem with him boiled down to who was going to get the most spoils, simple as that. What do you think the Lebanese are blind? The only reason why the FM won in the north was because of the sympathy vote and the millions of dollars poured in by the FM, otherwise, even the north would have been out of their hands. What do you think is going to happen next election, when the sympathy vote will be much less, and their is a more fair electoral law?

GMA is going to be the next President, whether you like it or not, so better start getting used to the idea. I’d say a freshly squeezed class of orange juice a day might do the job!

Omega,

Why is it for you FPMers more important to look into the past and start an audit than join together and disarm hisballah and remove Lahood and berri? Isn’t that more constructive to the future of Lebanon? By the way, i do agree, that many were corrupt, many were leaders of militia who committed crimes, but is now really the time to do this? and don’t forget to include in this corrupt class your marada ally frenjieh!

The audit , is the only card that GMA has , and it will never come to an end , because , like the Lebanese decided that the post-war period should start with a war-crimes amnesty , the post-syrian period will begin with a theft-amnesty , and everyone knows it , except GMA , we’re not living in Switzerland , yes everyone killed , everyone stole , what the fuck do you think you can do about it my FPM friends , like they say ” kalb bi 3awwe ma bi 3add ” so get real , btw ur pro-syrian (and only) allies hezbollah-amal-michelelmurr-talalarslan &co are all thieves , stop protecting emile lahoud , stop protecting hezbollah , stop being pro-syrian and pro-terrorism , stop day-dreaming that michel aoun is gonna be president one of those days , and stop promoting orange juice , it’s nauseous .

Remove Berri, what are you kidding me? It was the FM and their posse that decided to keep Berri, or did you forget that? Also, let’s back track a bit and remember who actually voted for Lahoud’s renewal. Was it us? Those Legislators that signed the petition claiming they were threatened into doing it should be tried as traitors. If an Army soldier betrays his country for a similar reason, he could be shot by firing squad. These members of Parliament failed in their Parliamentary duties 100%, and should at the very least resign at once!

Thus habibi, you can thank the “March 14″ in general for Berri and Lahoud both being there in the first place. Secondly,you can also thank them for keeping Lahoud there, because if they really wanted him out, he would have been out, believe me. However, they are scared of the alternatives. I mean come on, they would rather Lahoud have Ministers in the government than GMA. Thus, they prefer Lahoud over GMA!! Now if that doesn’t tell you anything, I don’t know what will.

are you justifying keeping Lahoud because the FM kept Berri?? Two wrongs dont’ make a right habibe…

Firstly, start critisizing the decision to keep Berri, then I’ll accept that your views are unbiased. Secondly, it is the “March 14″ gang that is keeping Lahoud in power. If they agree, by Monday Lahoud will be out. Cheers, hope you’re getting used to the taste of freshly squeezed orange juice.

Dream on .

I admit it was a mistake keeping Berri.. but remember Berri was never a part of march 14.. it was up to the shiaa population to keep him or remove him. On the other hand GMA backstabbed the march 14 principles. He sold sold his soul to the devil by standing by Lahoud.

@ anon
the understanding of the current game through all the middle east would underline your mistakes.

the syrian regime is dead, i dont care about an agonising regime, i m today caring about the credible alternatives that are putted in place.
in syria i dont see any alternative except through the muslim brotherhood etc.. and this would be a threat for lebanon as far as the mechanism of the influence of theses regime backed by the saudian alliance is in place in lebanon.

just to remind u that till damascus closed the room for negociation, joumblatt was always trying to communicate with them, asking them for peace etc… bcz of that blockage he turned to be again anti syrian.
then the saudian axis putted khaddam in place but this is the worst thing that might happen to lebanon as it s that guy that managed the syrian interests in lebanon during the civil war
who are the allies for the saudian in lebanon as far as the saudian are trying to put a rempart against a pro shiit iraq in syria.

about lahoud, i dont care about puppet we are in a parlementary system, the president doesnt have any power any more. therefore it s a secondary target, the primary target is berry.
that guy blocked the adoption of the electoral law last year that would have been leading to legitimate legislative elections were all the lebanese would have been expressing their votes in equal weight.
since we are today not able to have legitimate and equal representation, the vote that might tk place for the president is biast and this would be the seeds of the marginalisation of the will of the lebanese.

dont forget also that to have an influence on a country u need to occupy it. syrian doesnt have anymore its army in lebanon, it s acting indirectly through pressures groups.
we might be therefore back into an old equation for the presidential parameter that happened to be true from the departure of camille chamoun to the end of amine gemayel mandate.
the president is first pro muslim then turn to be pro christian in the end of his mandate.
if we consider that point of view, lahoud now tries to be close to the christians and aoun might get closer to the hezbollah.
(i m providing here an alternative view of what is happening)

@ frencheagle

” about lahoud, i dont care about puppet we are in a parlementary system, the president doesnt have any power any more. “

You are wrong , you should read the Constitution and the ”Taef” , the president has very important executive powers , exp: le pouvoir complementaire , wich is crucial in the parliamentary system , therefore , you should read more .

“You are wrong , you should read the Constitution and the ”Taef” , the president has very important executive powers , exp: le pouvoir complementaire , wich is crucial in the parliamentary system “
i ve read it ;)
and still i m right

parlementary system means the control is in the parlement.
dont u think that last year events with the fact that a new equaliterian law didnt pass wasnt due because of berry ?
dont u think that the paralysis of the administrations was not due because of the shiits etc…
they hold the real power bcz they are in the strong part of the political system

by the way, taef depends on how you re intepreting it and it s berry that is interpreting it as he is the president of the parlement