Orange Flag
The Lebanese March 14 leaders should watch very carefully what’s happening in the Ukraine
Just under a year ago, Vaclav Havel, Leader of the Czech revolution that toppled communism, saw the Lebanese intifada on March 14 and remembered his good ol’ revolutionary days. He rushed to address his Lebanese “friends” with passion and optimism:
Thanks to your resolve, discipline and confidence in the future, the death [of Hariri] has triggered off a process that nobody will stop now. By peaceful civic action you have managed to overcome not only fear and indifference, but also differences of opinion and religion, and to join hands for a better future.
Ahh, the glory of March 14. Fast forward a year later:
Mr. Havel writes a considerably less upbeat piece, published today in The Daily Star. The title says it all: “After revolutionary euphoria, make way for disillusion”. He writes:
All revolutions, in the end, turn from euphoria to disillusion. In a revolutionary atmosphere of solidarity and self-sacrifice, people tend to think that when their victory is complete, paradise on Earth is inevitable. Of course, paradise never comes, and - naturally - disappointment follows
Quite the change from the “process that nobody will stop now” don’t you think?
To be fair, Mr Havel wasn’t talking about Lebanon. He was commenting on Ukraine’s post revolution malaise. But that article serves as a stern reminder to the Lebanese that not all revolutions have happy endings. Just read Mr. Havel’s article, replace “Ukraine” with “Lebanon”, “Russia” with “Syria” and “The European Union” with “The International Community” and you’ll see why we have a reason for worrying.
What happened in Ukraine is the equivalent of Lebanon having a general elections where Hariri, Jumblat and the rest of the March 14 symbols all suffer great losses.
Jumblat is a keen reader of history, he cannot say he wasn’t warned.
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Hello, my name is Mustapha and I blog in The Beirut Spring about Lebanese society and politics. I started in February 2005 after the killing of P.M. Rafik Hariri.
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Mr. Mousse,
The Ukraine parallelism is also fitting because in Kiev, as in Beirut, the “freedom fighters” of the year 2005 were all former (political and/or business) apparatchiks of the Stalinist system of Moscow (or Damascus in the case of Hariri, Jumblatt & Co.) who had cynically turned their coats “westward” when their former “eastern” overlord seemed weakened for good.
Lebanon’s gangsta politicians and other self-righteous “resistants of the eleventh hour” who were literally brought up by VP Khaddâm and Gen. Ghazi Kanaan while General Michel Aoun lived in exile and his followers were persecuted by Hariri’s political police…
Here’s a typical quote from freedom loving Haririst-in-chief Walid Jumblatt (criticizing Michel Aoun in a March 2000 interview):
“We condemn those who revive claims that Syria is a foe and an enemy [...] advocates of this claim, which proved to be destructive to Lebanon, have not learned from the past.”
I’m not sure if that makes him “a keen reader of history” as you say.
“Cynical courtier” or “callous collaborator” comes to mind…
I have been a big admirer of Vaclav Havel for a long time. He is in my mind the quintessence of the modern philosopher-king.
The Dailystar essay in question, however, does not contain any major new insights. All revolutions ultimately fail because they become the new status quo. Unfortunately revolutions and liberation movements wind up in moving us forward by replacing the eppresors with the oppressee. The new regime becomes the target for change and finally the friction will resolve itself with another paradigm shift. And on it goes.
What is unfortunate about the Lebanese situation is that many had the illusion that a paradigm shift was about to take hold around a year ago but that has so far proved to be a mirage. March 14 2005 had the potential to create radical meaningful change but it never did. The window of opportunity has closed and we will have to settle for only marginal changes.
I dont think it ever had potential. The event (asassination) was used as a launchpad for individual goals. Unfortunately, the media manipulated and lebanon’s society being how it is built, fell and followed. Another herd of sheep in this evergrowing middle east grazing field.
Down with the Orange revolution. Oh wait, aren’t we talking of Lebanon?
March 14th was not a total failure at all. There have been achievements. Syria is gone. Karami is gone. There is at least “discussion” to solve Lebanon’s problems. Sure its not all what we hoped for. But its a lot better then how things were two years ago.
I think that march 14 revolutionised some aspects of lebanons social and political atmosphere.It didnt bring about concrete changes,or topple regimes,but indirectly,an invisible thread was sown to create a web of social freedoms.so there were good positive outcomes and it didnt go in vain.before any revolution in history,the people involved would take steps to unite,gather,plan,recruit….it was a long process, before a mass revolution would occur.
Perhaps march 14 served that purpose,broke alot of social barriers…never know,we keep that optimism,there could be a popular uprising in the near future.