Are we witnessing the decline of the March 14 alliance?

I have a theory: The cold, calculating Machiavelli in the Hariri camp was killed with Rafiq Hariri. Whether it was Hariri himself or one of his advisors, it seems he died in that explosion.

Yet again, the “Anti-Syria” Ministers have staged a walk-out after a loud ministerial session. Yet again, insults have been hurled by the pack on a thick-skinned President Lahhoud. A lot of bravado but no results. Despite Hariri’s claims that “the matter of the Presidency will be solved soon”, I can’t see Lahhoud leaving office.

What I’m seeing instead is Hariri shrinking in stature and Lahhoud and Hezbollah getting bolder and closer. The more Hariri appeases, apologizes, and explains, The More Nassrallah threatens of cutting off hands and heads.

The Arabs were obviously behind Lahhoud, why did Seniora go through the humiliation of being shushed in public? Why did he allow himself to be scolded by Nabih Berri who spoke so self-righteously about the “sanctity” of the resistance and how “disappointed” he was from Seniora, that he refused to listen to Seniora’s response? Mr. Seniora, your niceness is starting to look like weakness.

Never did the March 14 people appear so insecure, feeble and directionless. Get yourself together damn-it! Mr. Hariri, your father learned the hard way that you can’t appease forever. Unify with your partners, find an effective, sellable strategy. Try to divide and conquer; would Hezbollah accept a Aoun Presidency? Food for your thought..

**Update**
Read also Abu Kais’ take on the subject..

I just came across this great website.

You can find there a wonderful portrayal of Lebanon by photographer Pascal Beaudenon. Works best for people, like me, who live far away from our beloved country. My favorite thumbnails are numbers 6, 12, 48 and 51 (yes, I’m afraid you’ll have to count)

Go through the links, you can buy the book “L’autre Liban” or the sets of postcards there. I swear, I wasn’t paid to write this, I just liked what I saw so much I’m sharing it with you

How does looking at those pictures make you feel?

The Lebanese March 14 leaders should watch very carefully what’s happening in the Ukraine

Just under a year ago, Vaclav Havel, Leader of the Czech revolution that toppled communism, saw the Lebanese intifada on March 14 and remembered his good ol’ revolutionary days. He rushed to address his Lebanese “friends” with passion and optimism:

Thanks to your resolve, discipline and confidence in the future, the death [of Hariri] has triggered off a process that nobody will stop now. By peaceful civic action you have managed to overcome not only fear and indifference, but also differences of opinion and religion, and to join hands for a better future.

Ahh, the glory of March 14. Fast forward a year later:

Mr. Havel writes a considerably less upbeat piece, published today in The Daily Star. The title says it all: “After revolutionary euphoria, make way for disillusion”. He writes:

All revolutions, in the end, turn from euphoria to disillusion. In a revolutionary atmosphere of solidarity and self-sacrifice, people tend to think that when their victory is complete, paradise on Earth is inevitable. Of course, paradise never comes, and – naturally – disappointment follows

Quite the change from the “process that nobody will stop now” don’t you think?

To be fair, Mr Havel wasn’t talking about Lebanon. He was commenting on Ukraine’s post revolution malaise. But that article serves as a stern reminder to the Lebanese that not all revolutions have happy endings. Just read Mr. Havel’s article, replace “Ukraine” with “Lebanon”, “Russia” with “Syria” and “The European Union” with “The International Community” and you’ll see why we have a reason for worrying.

What happened in Ukraine is the equivalent of Lebanon having a general elections where Hariri, Jumblat and the rest of the March 14 symbols all suffer great losses.

Jumblat is a keen reader of history, he cannot say he wasn’t warned.

The same thing that makes our President so despicable is what makes the French Prime Minister so admirable.

More than half of the population wants the leader to change his mind, yet he remains doggedly stubborn and is not budging an inch. The opposition is threatening to use the street in a gargantuan demonstration that would force the leader to acquiesce, but he is showing no signs of giving in.

The above statement applies both to President Emile Lahhoud of Lebanon, an unpopular President who is obstinately refusing to resign, and to the French Prime Minister, Dominique De Villepin, who is refusing to withdraw an unpopular labor bill that would make it easier to hire and fire young people under the age of 26, the CPE.

The Dilemma to me is the following: I want Dominique de Villepin to ignore all those protests because I sincerely believe he’s doing the right thing, whereas I want our President to resign because, well, he sucks. I’m sure there’s a difference between acting in principle and being obstinate, don’t you think?

Will a new TV station with a Aounist perspective be good or bad for Lebanon?

I read today a post by my friend Kais who all but thrashes OTV, the proposed TV station that will promulgate a Aounist world view to Lebanese audiences all over the world.
Kais is not exactly a fan as his post clearly shows, but the topic sparks a wider debate: How healthy is it for every party to have its own media outlets?

The classic democratic argument has always been one of laissez-faire. You basically let everyone say whatever they want, and the rational voter will then, after listening to all the points of view, make up her mind and let her choice be known in the ballot box. Neat isn’t it?

Unfortunately, as the Information age has shown us, we did’nt turn out to be homo-rationalus after all; we have our views of the world and we like to listen to what like-minded people have to say. In a landmark article in the New York Times, The Age of Political Segregation, David Brooks observes:

Once you’ve joined a side, the information age makes it easier for you to surround yourself with people like yourself. And if there is one thing we have learned over the past generation, it’s that we are really into self-validation.

We don’t only want radio programs and Web sites from members of our side — we want to live near people like ourselves. Information age workers aren’t tied down to a mine, a port or a factory. They have more opportunities to shop for a place to live, and they tend to cluster in places where people share their cultural aesthetic and, as it turns out, political values. So every place becomes more like itself, and the cultural divides between places become stark. The information age was supposed to make distance dead, but because of clustering, geography becomes more important.

David Brooks was writing about Liberal Vs. Conservative America, but as we all know, this applies very well to Lebanon. On the same topic, Cate Malek writes about the important concept of Escalation:

escalation is a psychological process that causes the parties involved in a conflict to use more and more extreme measures to try to “beat” their opponents. Escalation begins when one party believes the other party has deliberately provoked them. They retaliate, setting off a vicious cycle. As a conflict escalates, the disputants begin to stereotype each other. They cut off communication with the other side and begin to associate only with their own side. The lack of communication contributes to increased misunderstandings and distrust of the other side.

Was Kais escalating? Some people will say: No, Aoun’s TV will indeed be “…stinky for the country, which would have to deal with his toxic political waste matter, caused by a chronic diarrhea of the mouth.”

But now the other side will escalate in response, and now they have a TV station. So, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

The secret reason why Brazilians don’t read books

I read an article in The Economist the other day about a mysterious phenomenon in Brazil: “Only one literate adult in three reads books. The average Brazilian reads 1.8 non-academic books a year—less than half the figure in Europe and the United States”

Oh My, this sounds very serious. Apparently, the average adult Brazilian spends only “5.2 hours a week with a book.” Quite the disaster don’t you think? Why is that?

I’m going to put on my Steven Levitt hat and go all Freakonomics on you to find the answer:
If you live in Lebanon, look around you. Be honest with yourself and answer this question: How many adult you know spends “5.2 hours a week with a book?” Are we thinking of the same answer?

Now, if the figure of 7 million Lebanese in Brazil is correct (there are doubts), we can all relish in the fact that we solved a mystery that is causing The Economist so much headache.

The President of Egypt tells us why Amr Mussa’s term as Secretary General of the Arab League deserves to be extended..

My brothers, your Highnesses, Kings, Presidents, Emirs, Emperors, dictators, eternal leaders of our Arab brethrens, I have decided that Amr Mussa is Egypt’s candidate for the next term as Secretary General of the Arab League..

You are all free to present your candidates, but as you know well, the Secretary General has traditionally been Egyptian and he will always be one. So save your breath, I’m notifying you, I’m not consulting with you..

Don’t worry. Mr Mussa is a great Candidate. He has shown great resolve in fixing the Arab world’s problems in his term. Witness how well he dealt with the Iraq war. Remember how he galvanized the whole Arab world in a strong position against the invasion? And how he later galvanized them for the post-invasion construction?

Remember how Amr Mussa prevented the killing, raping and looting of millions of people in Darfur by Sudanese Government forces?

What about Amr Mussa’s great plan to create a single market for goods, services, people and Ideas across the Arab world, to lift the standard of living of hundreds of millions of aspiring Arabs and give them hope for a better life? Doesn’t that deserve another term to be followed through?

What about Amr Mussa’s efforts to re-invent the Arab world to bring it back to relevance among the world’s nations?

See how Amr Mussa diligently tried to assist the aspirations of the Lebanese and Syrian people in their quest for independence and freedom?

Remember how Amr Mussa made the whole Arab world stand by Dubai in front of the savage display of racist nationalism in the US?

Your highnesses, honestly, I can’t find a better candidate than Amr Mussa. If you think you have a better one, please keep him for yourself..

A tale of Mothers’ Day and Burgers that fly on planes

As a Lebanese expat living in West Africa, I keep on getting questions from my non-Lebanese expat friends, who are usually well traveled North Americans and Europeans.

Aside from the boring “How come there’s so many Lebanese in West Africa?” question, I get this interesting one: “How come wherever I go, I find Lebanese that are very rich and powerful?” Yes ladies and gentlemen, this is not just some propaganda stuff our moms and dad tell us to instill in us pride in our nation; the world is apparently full of Lebanese millionaires, billionaires and zillionaires.

So I started asking myself: is there such thing as a money-making DNA?

I couldn’t find the answer to that question, but I got a clue this evening.
I bumped into one of my Lebanese friends who seemed very excited. I asked him why and he told me that he has figured out the most original Mothers’ Day gift ever: A Big Mac! (his mom, who lives here with him, loves them)

Now, that might seem normal to many of you guys, but it’s not the same when the closest McDonalds is thousands of kilometers away. My friend went on and explained that a Lebanese man opened a shop that among other things, “imports” burgers from Lebanon.

It seems there’s a good market for people who crave Big Macs here, so the guy just takes your order, assures you that your Hamburger will be purchased just one hour before the plane leaves Lebanon, and voila! You get your 8-hour old burger.
Don’t be too disgusted, he sold 120 burgers yesterday and he’s becoming the buzz in town. He’s now expanding his offer to include Burger King and KFC. Next thing you know, he’s a millionaire!

By the way, does anyone know why we’re the only people on the planet that celebrates Mothers’ day on March 21 st ?

The News from the region are getting worse every day. Have we reached a slippery slope?

“The situation in the broader Middle East is more complex, fragile and dangerous today than it has been for a long time [..] Several of the multiple conflicts in the region are reaching a boiling point.” Terje Roed-Larsen (March 11, 2006)

Consider Today’s Internet News stories:

Washington expects strong statement on Iran in Security Council (Almustaqbal)

85 executed bodies found in Iraq (Aljazeera)

Israeli tanks, helicopters and troops fire on a Palestinian prison where six inmates are holed. Militants attack UK consulate (CNN)

Meltdown in Dubai Stock Exchange, indicator loses 12% of value and market loses AED 77 Billion -$21 Billion- (Alarabiya)

This National Dialogue had better succeed!

Let’s see what kind of “fatty” decisions our leaders will make today…